Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Nine

Peter Howard

Welcome back! One of the reasons I try to add something new every week is because, by now, some things don’t change. The top 12 would be fairly hard to catch in season-long numbers at this point. So, I’ve continued to focus on the top 12 in receiving opportunity in the last three weeks.

The theme of this week, I think, can be compared to the loss of Napoleon, believe it or not. Arthur Wellesley, the Duke of Wellington, said that the presence of Napoleon on the Battlefield was worth an extra 40,000 soldiers. Simply being on the field provided added value of the army – in the same way the loss of a good wide receiver can hurt those left behind. Their absence can often hurt the quality of their opportunity more than it helps in added volume.

Now that’s over with, let’s dig in.

Data and Links

I’m writing my opinion on data. You can, and should disagree at will. I hope these are links that can help you do that.

You can see snapshots of the receiving opportunity for all 32 NFL teams here: https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/1059911707546525696

You can see the complete data with extra stats and metrics I’m collecting, including snap and touch %, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11M2V-gYlAlrK74eN688NMTrZ9vAPsOanzfAzLVSFLgE/edit?usp=sharing

Sources: Airyards.com, ffstatistics.com, and 4for4.com

The Top 12

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Notes:

  • Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd could be hurt by the loss of A.J. Green.
  • Keenan Allen is making his second-half push. He’s due touchdowns, he’s already getting the volume, and his PPG has started to adjust towards that of other dominate NFL wide receivers. BUY BUY BUY.
  • Marvin Jones is the biggest winner of the Golden Tate sweepstakes. He succeeds in such a different area of the field that I think he could make a second-half push despite the loss of Tate, and maybe even push towards the top 12 in points at the position in the last few weeks.
  • Stefon Diggs continues to be the target leader in Minnesota, he should continue to be a consistent producer.
  • Adam Thielen is a locked-in starter, don’t panic.
  • David Moore’s production suffered last week but his opportunity continues to climb. Even in a low volume offense, he should continue to produce if only because of his efficient Russell Wilson can make his targets.
  • Corey Davis continues to struggle in Tennessee but he is a buy in dynasty because of his opportunity share alone.

The Risers

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I removed players who have only played one game in the last three weeks and those who have already been put on IR.

Notes:

  • Tre’Quan Smith and Anthony Miller continue to be interesting rookie wide receivers beating out high-value competition for targets. Neither has been as efficient as I’d like, but I’m willing to give them a pass.
  • Sammy Watkins PPG rose with his increased opportunity, I don’t think he’s undervalued. Unless I’m making a push, he is someone I’m interested in trading away.
  • Tajae Sharpe is struggling in production. The Titans showed some signs of life last week after he suffered an ankle injury during pre-game. This could hide his role, however. If they can continue to improve, I expect Sharpe’s production to rise. He has been the clear number two target for Marcus Mariota recently, averaging five targets per game over the last three weeks behind only Corey Davis.
  • Jeff Heuerman was edging Courtland Sutton out for targets before the trade, and it was only exaggerated in the first week without Demaryius Thomas. Sutton has been the least efficient rookie wide receiver (outside from Dante Pettis, of course) and his target share might continue to slide if Case Keenum likes the value of Heuerman’s 0.9 RACR at a lower 6.9 aDot (Sutton has a RACR of 0.5 and an aDot of 14.1).
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the next man up now Geronimo Allison is on IR.

Jake Anderson (@JakeAndersonFF) and I spoke at length about Valdes-Scantling on the Dynasty Crossroads (@DynoCrossRoads) this week. Check out the DLF podcast feed to hear more.

The Fallers

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I removed players who have only played one game in the last three weeks and those who have already been put on IR.

Notes:

  • Kenny Golladay, I think, is an example of how losing a talented wide receiver on a depth chart can hurt the other receivers. I’m not concerned about his future, but we could continue to see some problems now Tate, the YAC monster, is no longer taking up coverage and creating higher value opportunity for others on the team.
  • Phillip Dorsett is still in New England, and it still doesn’t matter anymore.
  • Tyler Lockett has been living on touchdowns especially as David Moore sucks up more targets. He’s a good dynasty player but should continue to struggle on a week-to-week basis this year.

Well, that’s me done for another week, be sure to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter if you have any suggested questions or comments.

Thanks for checking this article out.

SERIES NOTES

  • Zeno James, from ffstatistics.com, has been invaluable in collecting this data on a weekly basis. Give him a follow at @theDude_Z on Twitter
  • I’m using a mix of data from 4for4.com and Airyards.com
  • CoV = The Coefficient of Variation, it measures the variance in a sample (i.e. how much change there is week to week)
  • Airyards = the total distance before the player caught his targets (essentially receiving yards minus yards after the catch)
  • Regression = a rate should return closer to “normal” or average when it is greatly over or under that average over a long sample size
  • WOPR = Weighted Opportunity Rating. It weights target share by the player’s share of air yards. It is one of the most stable (week to week and year to year) opportunity metrics and has extra utility because it describes some of the value in opportunity. It’s also useful because it can highlight potential regression when compared with fantasy points
  • It should be noted that the WOPR calculation is my own and imperfect when compared Airyards.com. It has a slightly different player order at times, however, it is ranking them in ranges appropriately

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peter howard
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