The salaries are very tight on DraftKings, causing us to be very frugal with our bankroll. This means we might have to take shots on high-risk high-reward players who are set at lower salaries in order for us to maximize our lineups. By analyzing the price listings, we will be more equipped to exploit the salaries on DraftKings.
Drew Brees, NO ($5,700)
This might be the only time all year that you will see Brees at this price point. Whenever you can get him at a discount, you take it. I don’t care if he’s on the road against a tough pass defense – the value here is too good to be true. He’s completing an insane 77.9 percent of his passes and is more than capable of putting up a decent stat line against the Ravens.
Baltimore’s defense can be exploited. Both Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger both surpassed the 250-yard mark against them. Sure, they didn’t post remarkable stat lines, but I’ll take 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns at $5,700.
Brees might be best in cash games this week. The Raven’s secondary will limit his upside and his low-price tag will make him a trendy play in GPP formats. However, his salary will allow you to pay up at other positions to help you maximize your roster. The most important thing here is that we know we are not going to get a goose egg in the box score and that holds a lot of value considering he’s one of the cheaper quarterbacks on the main slate.
Vegas has the over/under set at 49.5 points and they have the Ravens favored by 2.5 points. The implied point total is suggesting that this could be a high-scoring affair which could benefit Brees’ output. The game should also be close which means the game script should be in favor of the Saints’ passing game. All-in-all, you can’t lose if you go with Brees this week.
Kerryon Johnson, DET ($4,500)
There is some risk involved with drafting Johnson this week considering his volatile usage, but he will be playing a Dolphin’s defense that is averaging 31.9 fantasy points per game to running backs – fourth-worst in the NFL. They have allowed 100 or more yards on the ground in five of their six games this season. In other words, I’m saying he has a chance to produce this week.
As the season goes by, the salaries on DraftKings get tighter and the cheap free squares become almost nonexistent. Therefore, there are going to be some weeks where we must gamble on cheaper players and hope for a big game. Of course, there’s some risk involved here, but we can also take advantage of the risk factor. In tournaments, the field is going to pivot away from him due to his volatile workload. His low ownership rate will help you jump the tournament ranks if he blows up.
Keep in mind that he’s too risky to start in cash this week and I would rather pay a little more and roll with a more dependable option at running back. I would also limit my exposure in GPP formats to him. He’s should be in some of your lineups, but don’t get too carried away just in case Matt Patricia limits his workload for no reason again this week.
Dependable running back options are few and far between once you reach his price range. There are a few other running backs you could go with at that price point, but Johnson has the potential to breakout and be an RB1 this week.
The over/under for this game is listed at 44.5 points and the Lions are favored to win by two points. I’m slamming the over here and I believe Lions will cover the spread. If everything goes to fruition, then the game script for Detroit will lean toward the run game which will help ignite Johnson’s fantasy production.
Zay Jones, BUF ($3,700)
Jones is not on anybody’s radar, making him the perfect option for tournament play. He has a very promising matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. In the last two games, he has commanded a 25% target share of the Bills’ passing offense. He also was targeted for 127 air yards which helped accumulate a 10.6 average depth of target. In other words, the opportunities are there, we just need him to turn the workload into fantasy points.
The Bills have one of the worst offenses in the league and there’s a good possibility that Jones won’t be a big enough factor in this game to help your fantasy team. You have to take gambles if you want to win big in tournaments. Jones is going to experience a low ownership rate and if he has his breakout game this week against the Colts, then your team is going to have a big advantage against the rest of the field.
His salary is going to free up the rest of your bankroll and will allow you to take shots on a few higher priced players, creating more stability and upside for your lineup. Even if he doesn’t hit, his salary could help you get enough high-end producers to keep your lineup competitive.
Bovada has the over/under at 43.5 points with the Colts favored by 7.5 points. This is a hard game to gauge because it could be the lowest scoring game of the week while also having the potential of being one of the highest scoring games on Sunday. The Bills will need to pass the ball to keep up with Indianapolis’ offense and no matter how limited the results, the game flow should benefit their passing game.
David Njoku, CLE ($4,200)
It’s Cleveland’s turn to play the hapless pass defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Njoku has a team-leading 23 targets in the last two weeks, equating to a 26% target share. He’s a key piece to Cleveland’s offense and he’s going to receive plenty of opportunities to put up fantasy points against one of the softest pass defenses in the league.
There are certainly cheaper options at tight end, but Njoku is at a palatable price point while playing against an optimal matchup. His expected workload makes him a favorite for cash games while his salary will make it hard for you not to put him in some of your GPP lineups.
The implied point total for this game is very promising for the Browns’ passing game. Vegas has the over/under set at 50 points and they have the Buccaneers favored by three points. This is going to be a high-scoring game and the Browns will need to lean on the young arm of Baker Mayfield. With Njoku being one of his favorite targets, fantasy gamers might hit big if they have him in their lineups.
Latest posts by Bruce Matson (see all)
- 2019 NFL Draft: Small School Prospects - April 21, 2019
- 2019 NFL Draft Prospect – David Sills, WR West Virginia - April 12, 2019
- 2019 NFL Draft Prospect – Antoine Wesley, WR Texas Tech - April 6, 2019