Dynasty Stock Market: One-Hit Wonders
Ice Ice Baby. Macarena. Who Let the Dogs Out? I’m Too Sexy.
Along with being songs that are now stuck in your head for the rest of the day, each of these tunes will go down in history as the top one-hit wonders of all time. One-hit wonder. You know the term. It refers to a song that became popular, leading to instant fame for the respective performers, yet those same artists failed to ever reach that same level of success throughout the remainder of their careers. It is relatively easy now to look back at these singers and understand why they never reached a consistent level of stardom. In fact, the bigger question has become “how did they even produce one hit?” The challenge for us can be trying to project which performers will become infamous for just one song and which can keep the hits flowing.
NFL players can also look like one-hit wonders as they tease us with a season’s worth of production yet fail to ever replicate that performance in the following seasons of their careers. Just as in the music industry, fantasy players become smitten with the next big thing and quickly adjust our expectations and projections for those players after a relatively small sample size of success. Before we attempt to identify the latest one hit wonders, let’s look back at some examples from previous seasons. Some failed due to injury, others were simply replaced by better options. Regardless of the reasons, these players saw their dynasty value spike, only to disappoint fantasy players who invested in them, much like record labels and fans investing in the promising new act.
Each of these players produced one season as a fantasy starter, yet never again reached that level.
Trent Richardson, RB
Best Fantasy Finish: RB7
Other Fantasy Finishes: RB30, RB35
Likely the most expensive of all of the one hit wonders on this list, Richardson entered the league with much fanfare and did not disappoint in his rookie season. He totaled over 1,200 yards, scored a dozen touchdowns and finished as the RB7 in fantasy leagues. Prior to his second season, Richardson was being valued as not only one of the top running backs but was routinely selected with the top overall pick of startup drafts. The stunner that same off-season happened when the Browns dealt Richardson to the Colts and he was never the same again. After a pair of ho-hum seasons in Indianapolis, Richardson was essentially out of the league.
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Matt Asiata, RB
Best Fantasy Finish: RB15
Other Fantasy Finishes: RB142, RB78, RB82, RB38
The suspension of Adrian Peterson early in the 2014 season shook the league and had a major impact on all dynasty leagues. While many projected rookie Jerick McKinnon to take over, he proved he wasn’t quite ready for that. Instead, it was veteran Asiata who led the way, finishing with nine touchdowns to carry him to the RB15 finish. Despite the solid play, Asiata never saw a major increase to his value as Peterson returned the following year.
Zac Stacy, RB
Best Fantasy Finish: RB19
Other Fantasy Finishes: RB69, RB100
This one really stung! A fifth-round pick, Stacy surprised in his rookie season and his dynasty value quickly climbed. During the following off-season, Stacy was being drafted in the third-round of dynasty startup drafts before he disappointed in his second year. The Rams drafted Todd Gurley in 2015 and Stacy was subsequently dealt to the Jets.
Spencer Ware, RB
Best Fantasy Finish: RB17
Other Fantasy Finishes: RB142, RB60
As starting back Jamaal Charles missed time with injuries in 2015 and 2016, Ware filled his role and gave fantasy owners hope of yet another waiver wire gem turning into a star. While there is still time for Ware to make an impact, that seems to be a long-shot. Despite his RB17 finish in 2016, the Chiefs drafted Kareem Hunt in 2017 and were forced to rely on the rookie when Ware’s season was ended by a preseason ACL injury. With Hunt now entrenched as the starter, Ware is simply his backup.
Michael Bush, RB
Best Fantasy Finish: RB11
Other Fantasy Finishes: RB55, RB45, RB27, RB47, RB66
We have to go way back to 2011 to find the lone top performance for Bush, a former high school national player of the year. Bush seemed like the answer to the Raiders running back issues, including seemingly constant injury woes for Darren McFadden. The following year, Bush turned that performance into a payday from the Bears, but he never came close to unseating Matt Forte as starter. Bush’s dynasty value was climbing before the poor landing spot in Chicago.
Mikel Leshoure, RB
Best Fantasy Finish: RB19
Other Fantasy Finishes: RB157
After missing his rookie season in 2011 with a torn Achilles, Leshoure returned and had a productive season, finishing as RB19. He was clearly never the same following the injury and although dynasty owners held on way too long, the Lions didn’t, cutting Leshoure prior to the 2014 season.
Kendall Wright, WR
Best Fantasy Finish: WR20
Other Fantasy Finishes: WR45, WR43, WR75, WR85, WR54
As a first-round NFL Draft pick, Wright entered the league with huge expectations. In his second year with the Titans, Wright eclipsed 1,000 yards on 94 receptions. Both remain career-high marks. Wright’s reception totals declined in each of the following three seasons with Tennessee and the team didn’t put up much of a fight to retain him. He’s now a free agent after he failed to make the Vikings roster this preseason.
Brandon LaFell, WR
Best Fantasy Finish: WR22
Other Fantasy Finishes: WR74, WR60, WR54, WR50, WR80, WR34, WR56
LaFell is just another in the long string of disappointing receivers coming out of LSU. A third-rounder from the Panthers, LaFell never lived up to the hype and his best season came in 2014, his first year with the Patriots when he notched career highs in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. LaFell was finally dumped by the Bengals this off-season and signed with the Raiders, but has barely seen the field.
Jordan Matthews, WR
Best Fantasy Finish: WR17
Other Fantasy Finishes: WR25, WR48, WR107
Entering the league as a favorite of the metric-based fantasy community, Matthews got off to a strong start in his career, posting back-to-back top 25 fantasy receiver seasons. As the Eagles transitioned to a new quarterback and new coaching staff, Matthews didn’t seem to fit with their plans and he was shipped off to Buffalo. Now he’s back with the Eagles after failing to make the Patriots roster this preseason. He’s among the only players on this list who still has some dynasty value.
Terrelle Pryor, WR
Best Fantasy Finish: WR21
Other Fantasy Finishes: WR145, WR100, WR175, WR110
One of the more interesting stories of recent years has been Pryor’s transition from the highs and lows of his college career as quarterback of the Buckeyes to playing receiver in the NFL. In 2016, five years removed from Ohio State, Pryor finally fulfilled his potential, totaling over 1,000 yards along with four touchdowns, which was good for a WR21 finish. That also led to a free agent deal with the Redskins, where he was a massive disappointment. This season, Pryor is playing for his fourth team, the New York Jets.
Richard Rodgers, TE
Best Fantasy Finish: TE11
Other Fantasy Finishes: TE42, TE37, TE59
Perhaps the most surprising name on this list is Rodgers, the former Packers tight end. Since Green Bay lost Jermichael Finley, they have been desperately working to fill the athletic, pass-catching tight end. Although Rodgers didn’t fit that mold, he did have a career year in 2015, his second in the league. Rodgers set career-best marks with a 58/510/8 stat line and finished as the TE11 on the season. Rodgers now moves on to the Eagles after four seasons with the Pack.
After that look back at some of the high and low points of these players’ careers, let consider how we can use this information moving forward. You might have noticed that there were no quarterbacks on the above list. That means that of all of the signal callers to produce a top 12 season from 2011-2016, none have accomplished the feat just once. Also, this rarely happens at the tight end position, with Rodgers being the lone player on the list.
The Next One Hit Wonder?
In 2017, several players finished in this fantasy starter range for the first time, making them candidates to eventually appear on this list. Let’s look at these players and examine the likelihood they can repeat their starter-level performance. I’ve left out any 2017 rookies who finished as fantasy starters during their opening season.
Carson Wentz, PHI QB
2017 Fantasy Finish: QB6
Previous Fantasy Finishes: QB24
Eagles second-year quarterback Wentz enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 before suffering a season-ending torn ACL. His dynasty value quickly climbed, with many considering him the most valuable signal-caller in the dynasty format. Because he’s been somewhat slow to recover from that injury, it’s now a longshot that he repeats that QB1 performance this season, but he seems like a lock to get there, maybe multiple times, during his career.
Jared Goff, LAR QB
2017 Fantasy Finish: QB12
Previous Fantasy Finishes: QB37
It was a similar story for former top overall pick Goff. After a disastrous rookie campaign, a new coaching staff and a new offense did wonders for Goff. As the leader of one of the top-scoring offenses in the league and still very young, Goff will surely be back among the fantasy starters, possibly hitting that mark this year.
Dion Lewis, RB TEN
2017 Fantasy Finish: RB15
Previous Fantasy Finishes: RB71, RB42, RB117, RB114
After an injury-riddled career, it all came together for Lewis in 2017 as he served a major role on the Patriots AFC title team and then turned that into a big free agent contract from the Titans. Now in a timeshare with Derrick Henry, I would not count on Lewis ever cracking the top 24 fantasy finishers again.
Jerick McKinnon, RB SF
2017 Fantasy Finish: RB17
Previous Fantasy Finishes: RB28, RB58, RB47
During the off-season, McKinnon appeared to be a lock to repeat his fantasy starter performance after earning a big money free agent contract for the 49ers. Unfortunately, a preseason ACL injury ended his season and put a major dent in his value. I don’t expect to see McKinnon back in the top 24 fantasy finishers.
Alex Collins, RB BAL
2017 Fantasy Finish: RB20
Previous Fantasy Finishes: RB84
Javorius Allen, RB BAL
2017 Fantasy Finish: RB23
Previous Fantasy Finishes: RB129, RB29
Both Ravens backs cracked the starter ranks a year ago and are again sharing the load this year. While neither are totally safe options, I think each of Collins and Allen could do enough to finish as a low-end RB2 again this year.
Chris Thompson, RB WAS
2017 Fantasy Finish: RB24
Previous Fantasy Finishes: RB27, RB54, RB54, RB116
Redskins pass-catching back Thompson was well on his way to a huge season in 2017 before a broken leg ended his year. He still did enough in a portion of the season to finish as a fantasy starter for the first time. This year, Thompson is off to a huge start and as long as he stays healthy looks like a lock to stay inside the top 24 fantasy backs in PPR leagues.
Adam Thielen, WR MIN
2017 Fantasy Finish: WR9
Previous Fantasy Finishes: WR29, WR127, WR128
It is hard to imagine Vikings wide receiver Thielen outside of the top 24, but it was just last year that he proved to be one of the top wideouts in the game. With a quarterback upgrade and Stefon Diggs stealing the defense’s attention, Thielen is primed for another huge season.
Marvin Jones, WR DET
2017 Fantasy Finish: WR11
Previous Fantasy Finishes: WR42, WR35, WR29, WR109
After years as a complementary receiver, Jones took a starring role in 2017 and even cracked the top 12 receivers overall. This year, we’re already seeing young receiver Kenny Golladay step up. While all three Lions receivers, including Golden Tate, should put up fantasy numbers, they may cancel each other out, leaving Jones outside of the top 24 receivers.
Robby Anderson, WR NYJ
2017 Fantasy Finish: WR18
Previous Fantasy Finishes: WR69
With the Jets facing multiple injuries at the receiver position a year ago, Anderson was in some ways the last man standing. That resulted in a huge season for him. Early in this season, he’s being treated as the third or fourth option in the passing game, making it look like a repeat won’t happen in 2018. Still a young receiver with big play upside, Anderson has plenty of time to make his mark on dynasty teams.
Stefon Diggs, WR MIN
2017 Fantasy Finish: WR19
Previous Fantasy Finishes: WR30, WR45
Much like his teammate Thielen, it might be surprising to learn that last year was Diggs’ first as a fantasy starter. Diggs has dealt with nagging injuries and inconsistency throughout his career but seems to be past that as he’s turned into one of the most valuable receivers in the dynasty format. He’s a lock to repeat and should do it this season.
Devin Funchess, WR CAR
2017 Fantasy Finish: WR20
Previous Fantasy Finishes: WR88, WR64
Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
2017 Fantasy Finish: WR23
Previous Fantasy Finishes: WR87, WR102
Fourth-year receivers Funchess and Agholor have a similar story. Each was highly-drafted as a rookie but failed to live up to expectations. After a couple of disappointing years, they could be found on dynasty waiver wires. The old tale of the third-year breakout for wideouts came true for each of them though as they became fantasy starters. Also, each are now being treated as the top option for their teams, though they must be looking over their shoulder for the return of Alshon Jeffery and a DJ Moore breakout. I like each player’s chances of landing in the top 24 this season.
Jack Doyle, TE IND
2017 Fantasy Finish: TE7
Previous Fantasy Finishes: TE13, TE65, TE51, TE87
After showing promise out of nowhere in 2016, Doyle continued his strong play last year, even without quarterback Andrew Luck. The current tight end landscape is a bit messy with young players not quite ready to contribute and top veterans slowing down or missing time with injury. These, along with the return of Luck, make a top 12 season for Doyle very likely.
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