A View From the 1.08: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 24, 2018

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

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1.08

The Pick: DJ Moore, WR Maryland

We’ve finally gotten to one of my favorite players in this class, the wideout from Maryland who has climbed the draft board as dynasty owners and draftniks learn more about him. He has all the measurables even though his counting stats were not overwhelming, in large part to the Terrapins pitiful passing offense. Moore dominated the Combine, making his case to be the top wideout drafted in both the NFL and fantasy drafts and it might just happen.

Possible Pivots:

Again, the top three receivers should all be drafted within the same range, so this pick could easily be Calvin Ridley or Courtland Sutton if it is not Moore. This is also where I expect Ronald Jones to land in many leagues.

Trade Value:

Julio Jones, Trey Burton for Allen Robinson, 1.08
Carson Wentz, OJ Howard, 1.01 for Ezekiel Elliott, Ben Roethlisberger, 1.08
Derrick Henry for Duke Johnson, Peyton Barber, 1.08
AJ Green, 4.04 for Will Fuller, Michael Crabtree, Tarik Cohen, 108, 2019 third
Kenyan Drake, 5.07 for 1.08, 2.05

Super-Flex Options: Sam Darnold, QB USC

Just as is the case with Moore, this feels like amazing value for the eighth pick off the board. While I am not the biggest fan of Darnold, it is possible that he’s the top overall player drafted and lands on a retooled Browns team with plenty of offensive weapons. By the time actual super-flex rookie drafts begin, I expect Darnold to be drafted earlier than this 1.08 slot.

2.08

The Pick: Mark Walton, RB Miami

Walton’s dynasty value is a bit in flux after his final college season was ended with a nasty injury. Walton sports a nice blend of speed and power, but I wouldn’t call either a strength. In the middle of the second round, he’d make a fine target, but to return any immediate value on that investment, he’ll need to prove he’s fully healthy.

Possible Pivots:

Players potentially available in this range include quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen, along with wide receiver Anthony Miller. Personally, I’d take all of these over Walton.

Trade Value:

Doug Baldwin, 4.02, 4.07 for Alshon Jeffery, 2.08, 3.08
Randall Cobb for Jordan Reed, 2.08
Tarik Cohen, 2.01, 2.12 for Jerick McKinnon, 2.08
Paul Richardson for 2.08

Super-Flex Options: Kerryon Johnson, RB Auburn

Despite a breakout season for a National Title contender in Auburn, Johnson is going a bit under the radar in dynasty circles. Johnson is a powerful runner who will need to improve his pass-catching skills to make a fantasy impact. While I also have concerns about Johnson’s injury history, for the value at the 2.08 in this format, I’d be glad to take a shot on him.

3.08

The Pick: Josh Adams, RB Notre Dame

The Notre Dame offense became very run heavy in 2017, largely due to their starting quarterback who struggled to throw the ball. This shift gave Adams a chance to be routinely featured and he played well. Adams has a unique build for a back and it could hurt him as he transitions to the league. As you might expect of a running back being drafted at this point, Adams doesn’t have that one strength that sets him apart from his competition. He has solid speed but little power. His value will be heavily based on which team he lands with and I have a hard time seeing him even climbing into the late part of the second round.

Possible Pivots:

At this point, I would be hoping wide receiver Deon Cain somehow fell, but I explained earlier that I expect him to be moving in the opposite direction. Other options include DaeSean Hamilton and former Florida receiver Antonio Callaway.

Trade Value:

Giovani Bernard, 2.12, 3.04 for Eric Ebron, 3.08, 3.09
Carson Wentz, Isaiah Crowell for Jerick McKinnon, Alex Smith, 3.08
Chris Ivory, 3.11, 5.11 for 3.08, 5.08
Robby Anderson for 3.08, 3.10
James Conner for 3.08

Super-Flex Options: Antonio Callaway, WR Florida

Strangely enough, Callaway actually has a higher ADP in our 2QB data than he did in our typical 1QB leagues. Once you get to this point of the draft, reaches become a thing of the past and dynasty owners are willing to grab their guy before it’s too late. Obviously, Callaway has some off-field issues, but he’s well worth the risk later in the third round.

4.08

The Pick: Jaylen Samuels

Former North Carolina State jack of all trades Samuels drew a lot of hype from draftniks and fantasy players early in the off-season when much of the discussion centered around what position he would play in the league. The Wolfpack used him all over the field and Samuels ranks in the top ten all-time in both rushing and receiving touchdowns for NC State. Any NFL team he lands on will certainly find ways to use him and the position designation won’t matter much to them, but it matters to dynasty players.

Once he was added to the MyFantasyLeague system, he was listed as a running back. During the Combine, he tested with the tight ends, but revealed in an interview that no team had talked to him about playing tight end, preferring to use him as a running back. Regardless of his position, get this player on your team and see what happens, especially at the cost of a fourth-round pick.

Possible Pivots:

You wouldn’t think there would be many choices late in the fourth round, but I see players in this range of our rookie ADP that get my attention. They include receiver Keke Coutee and running back Justin Jackson.

Super-Flex Options: Samuels

Samuels ranked in the exact same spot according to our 2QB ADP and feels like an equally strong pick in this format.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.