DLF Dynasty Podcast Recap: 2014 Rookie Re-Draft

If you’ve listened to recent episodes of the DLF Dynasty Podcast, and I hope you have, you’ve heard me, Dan Meylor and Matt Price revisit and re-draft recent rookie classes. We began with a plan to look back at the draft history of the past five seasons of rookies, hoping to glean some information that could be valuable to ourselves and our listeners, both related to specific players that have made up the respective classes, as well as general rookie draft strategy that could be applied to the incoming class of 2018.

I’ve enjoyed the discussion and learning from Matt and Dan. But the best part, as is usually the case, has been the drafts. We decided to hold a one round re-draft of the specific rookie class to cap off each episode. Those drafted players will later be combined across the past five draft classes to form a full fantasy team and then we will determine who built the best roster.

We are drafting based on a typical PPR scoring format with multiple flex spots, including the chance to start up to two quarterbacks through a super-flex spot. In case you’ve never played in a super-flex league, this massively changes the value of the quarterback position. We also chose to draft as if we were building a team going forward from right now, rather than looking back at what players have accomplished in recent seasons.

Before I recap our 2014 rookie re-draft, let’s look back at the first two rounds of that season’s rookie draft ADP, thanks to data from MyFantasyLeague.

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And finally, here are the draft results. Once again, I drew the top pick in the draft, followed by Matt and Dan. We used a snake format with each group of three picks.

1.01 – Odell Beckham, WR NYG

Original Rookie ADP- 8.7

Just as in the previous week, I had an easy call at the top with Beckham. Despite his season-ending injury earlier in the year, Beckham has retained his position at the top of our monthly dynasty ADP. The Giants star was only a mid-first round pick in 2014 and even fell to the second round in later drafts as he dealt with an injury that delayed his NFL debut. He already has three top seven overall finishes among wide receivers and is locked in as a top two pick in dynasty drafts.

1.02 – Mike Evans, WR TB

Original Rookie ADP- 2.3

In 2014 drafts, Buccaneers wide receiver Evans was basically locked in at the second overall spot and he has held tight to that even in what some have called a disappointing season. The addition of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard hurt Evans’ volume in 2017, but he was still a top-20 fantasy option, even after missing some time. Evans is also still considered a first-round startup pick and might actually come at a slight discount this off-season. In our draft, Matt grabbed Evans and his combo, along with Keenan Allen, rival my duo of Beckham/DeAndre Hopkins.

1.03 – Brandin Cooks, WR NE

Original Rookie ADP- 4.7

Like Evans, some have viewed Cooks’ first season in New England as a disappointment, but his finish as WR15 says otherwise. Cooks fell out of favor after three seasons in New Orleans, including the past two as WR13 and WR10, respectively. Cooks was inconsistent this season, but he’s the top wide receiver in Tom Brady’s offense, making his high-end WR2 finish his floor. Even in a loaded class, this was an easy call for Dan, who didn’t take a wide receiver in the 2013 version of our re-draft.

2.01 – Davante Adams, WR GB

Original Rookie ADP- 14.1

The Packers young star Adams took a little bit longer to break out than some of his peers in the 2014 class, which is understandable considering the always crowded Green Bay depth chart, but Adams has now put together a pair of top 14 fantasy finishes in the past two seasons and he is quickly climbing up dynasty ranks. Like many of the players in this class, Adams was headed for free agency this off-season, but a contract extension now has him locked into Green Bay, likely for the remainder of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ career. He will be a trendy pick late in the first round of startup drafts this off-season.

2.02 – Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

Original Rookie ADP- 30.1

Perennially underrated, Dolphins target hog Landry has now produced three consecutive top 13 fantasy seasons, including ranking as the WR5 this year. Somehow, his value has remained steady just outside of the top 25 overall players. As he was last off-season, he will be one of my top trade targets and made for an excellent pick for Matt at this point of the draft. In 2014, Landry fell in the shadow of his college teammate Beckham, along with the other receivers in the class, making him a steal in the second and third rounds of rookie drafts.

2.03 – Allen Robinson, WR JAC

Original Rookie ADP- 18.2

Coming off an impressive career at Penn State, Robinson was actually the second receiver drafted by the Jaguars in 2014 and perhaps that is the reason he often fell to the second-round of drafts. The Jags chose Marqise Lee first and then added Robinson, who had a quiet rookie season, missing several games due to an injury. His second season was the breakout when he posted 1,400 receiving yards and 14 scores, catapulting his dynasty value into the first round of startup drafts. His numbers declined since and he missed most of the past season with a torn ACL, but he now enters free agency. He was an easy pick for me in the middle of the round, reminding us again how impressive the class of 2014 really has been.

3.01 – Devonta Freeman, RB ATL

Original Rookie ADP- 12.3

My next pick was more difficult, but I began to consider my team makeup and since I had only Chris Thompson and Rex Burkhead at my running back spots, I opted for Falcons back Freeman, who boats fantasy finishes of RB1, RB6 and RB13 over the past three seasons. With the flashy options of the 2017 rookie class, Freeman is seemingly being overlooked and undervalued in the dynasty community. Expect Freeman and Tevin Coleman to continue to share touches for at least another season, but that hasn’t slowed the former Seminole so far in his career.

3.02 – Adam Thielen, WR MIN

Original Rookie ADP- N/A

When you think of the 2014 draft class, you probably think about Evans or Beckham or Cooks or even a draft bust like running back Bishop Sankey, but you probably don’t think of Vikings receiver Thielen, who began his career in 2014 as an undrafted free agent and barely played through his first two seasons. The past two years have seen Thielen breakout out in 2016 with a WR29 finish and solidify his role this season, rankings as the WR8 for the year. Due to that undrafted status, along with his age and even potentially his skin color, Thielen is often not given the credit his numbers warrant, making him a value as we begin to look towards the 2018 season. He gives Matt a strong foursome along with Allen, Evans and Landry.

3.03 – Carlos Hyde, RB SF

Original Rookie ADP- 6.4

Next, Dan made the pick I disagreed with most, grabbing free agent running back Hyde, who has spent his entire career with the 49ers. The team is expected to let him walk this off-season and parting ways with head coach Kyle Shanahan is never a good thing for a running back. Hyde, coming off a career-best RB8 finish, is certainly worthy of a spot in the first round, but this was a bit too high for my taste. Hyde was a popular pick in 2014 as dynasty owners tried to find some value at the running back position amidst the plethora of receiver talent, but considering the other options that could’ve been had at his previous ADP, his owners have to be disappointed.

4.01 – Sammy Watkins, WR LAR

Original Rookie ADP- 1.1

Once valued as the top player in this amazing draft class, Watkins is now with his second team and may be preparing to find his third in just four years. After a solid start to his career in Buffalo, Watkins was derailed by injuries and eventually shipped out to the west coast as the Bills made it clear they did not plan on giving their former first-round pick a second contract. With the Rams, Watkins became the third or fourth option in the high-powered offense, but the Rams are still rumored to be interested in using their Franchise Tag to retain Watkins’ services. Even with all of the negatives for Watkins, his upside and dynasty value remains and it wasn’t so long ago he was being drafted in the first round of overall startup drafts, making this pick by Dan look like a real value.

4.02 – Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF

Original Rookie ADP- 44.5

One of the top stories of the second-half of the season was the Patriots trade of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the Niners and his eventual winning streak, locking himself in as a potential QB1 in dynasty leagues. With our super-flex format, Garoppolo is a total steal here and I regretted not taking him over Freeman in the middle of the round. Expect the team to add some weapons on offense for Garoppolo, who played well even with few options in the final few weeks. In this format, Garoppolo could be valued as a top 20 overall player in super-flex dynasty startup drafts. This was a steal of a pick by Matt and the first quarterback taken in the entire five-week exercise.

4.03 – Derek Carr, QB OAK

Original Rookie ADP- 35.1

Although I was tilted by missing out on my target by just one pick, I stuck with the quarterback position, selecting Raiders Carr, who is coming off a disappointing season in 2017. Carr was an MVP candidate in 2016 before suffering a season-ending injury and he, along with the entire Raiders offense, regressed this season. This, of course, lead to the hiring of a new coaching staff led by Jon Gruden. There are mixed opinions on how this will impact Carr and the offense, but considering how difficult it can be to find quarterbacks in this format, I opted for Carr to end the draft.

Best of the Rest

Jordan Matthews, WR BUF

He’s been a disappointment after starting his career strong with the Eagles. He needs a new home and a fresh start. I consider him a nice buy-low target this off-season.

Eric Ebron, TE DET

After being reportedly traded, he finished the season on a hot streak. The former first-round pick in both the NFL and dynasty drafts has been a letdown, overall.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR BUF

Dinged for being older than most of his draftmates, Benjamin was shipped out from Carolina, who improved after he left. His value will likely continue to tumble after an impressive rookie season.

Marqise Lee, WR JAC

Injuries have hurt Lee’s dynasty value and may have cost him a roster spot after the late-season performances of Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole. The Jags face difficult choices as Lee and Robinson both enter free agency.

Jeremy Hill, RB CIN

He looked like a long-term RB1 in his rookie season, but has regressed since and missed much of this season with an injury. He will almost certainly be looking for a new team this off-season.

Donte Moncrief, WR IND

Once valued as a top 25 dynasty asset, Moncrief has flopped. His struggles might be blamed on the absence of quarterback Andrew Luck this season, but he has proven to be a touchdown-reliant fantasy scorer previously.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN

We finally saw Bridgewater back on the field this season, ever so briefly. He enters free agency this off-season and seemingly has a long way to go to regain his starter status for any team.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE NYJ

The Buccaneers gave up on Seferian-Jenkins after one too many off-field infractions and he has done a good job of regaining some value and overcoming personal issues. He’s a high-end TE2 moving forward.

Blake Bortles, QB JAC

Bortles came ever so close to posting a third consecutive QB1 season, but there is little argument for him as a “real” NFL quarterback. Despite the team’s success this season, Bortles could still be replaced for 2018. He’s a nice value in super-flex leagues.

Martavis Bryant, WR PIT

This would’ve been my next pick if I had the chance. Bryant returned this season from a year-long suspension and expectations were very high. Bryant started slowly and was overtaken by rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster, but he still has very high upside.

Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE

After what was viewed as a breakout 2016 season, Crowell struggled this past season. The Browns likely let him walk in free agency, which will certainly be a good thing for the player.

Paul Richardson, WR SEA

We finally got to see what Richardson could do in a fully healthy season and he alternated with Tyler Lockett as the second receiver in the Seahawks offense. It will be very telling when we see how Seattle treats Richardson in free agency.

James White, RB NE

As a member of the Patriots backfield carousel, White has played well for stretches of his career, but not consistently enough to be highly-valued as a dynasty asset.

Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN

After years of hype, McKinnon finally delivered this season following the injury to rookie starter Dalvin Cook. McKinnon fantasy owners should be cheering for him to escape Minnesota and find a chance at more playing time in 2018.

John Brown, WR ARZ

A deep threat on every play, Brown has been constantly hampered by injuries, which has hurt his fantasy value. He’s also much older than other players in his class, turning 28 years old before the beginning of the 2018 season.

Allen Hurns, WR JAC

In 2014, while Lee and Robinson were viewed as disappointments, undrafted rookie Hurns grabbed the headlines for the Jaguars. Since then, he’s dealt with multiple injuries and the team is stuck with his bad contract. He’s a roster clogger in dynasty leagues.

Quincy Enunwa, WR NYJ

When he finally saw consistent playing time in 2016, Enunwa had a big season, but he wasn’t able to repeat that as he missed the 2017 season with an injury. Enunwa probably didn’t show enough for the Jets to lock him in as a starter moving forward.

Albert Wilson, WR KC

Bert Alert! Wilson has been a nice contributor to the Chiefs offense over the past few seasons, but should not really be valued in dynasty leagues. He’s a once a month big-play threat for Kansas City.

Trey Burton, TE PHI

With starting tight end Zach Ertz enjoying a big season, there was little room for Burton to even see snaps. Burton did make the most of his starts when Ertz was injured though and that might be enough to get other teams interested in the impending free agent. If he’s on your waiver wire, add him now!

Here’s a quick look at our teams through two drafts, with more to come for the 2015-2017 classes. Which team do you like best?

This is the second edition of a multi-part series in which I will review the results of each rookie re-draft through the class of 2017. Check back soon for a look at the stacked class of 2015.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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