Welcome to part two of Weaponizing ADP. In part one, I looked at the changes in ADP from September to December of players drafted between 2012 and 2016. In part two, it’s time to look at the ADP changes of the 2017 draft class. We can use this data to learn several things:
- Expectations for the 2017 class based on the changes found in part one.
- Players who are valued, perhaps unjustifiably, high.
- Players who are currently valued too low.
It sounds simple, but just because a player doesn’t do anything in their rookie year isn’t a good enough reason lower their value. If a player does well, their value should increase, but proportionally to the risk of small samples and positional trends. So let’s step outside the hype and focus on the players. What have they done, what have they not done, and where are people overreacting to the possibilities?
ADP is not stable and will change. So stay up to date on those changes at DLF as well how analysists are valuing players in their own rankings. The first round of off-season mock drafts are already underway at DLF thanks to Ryan McDowell. He also offers up to date information of these changes on Twitter (@RyanMc23).
Rookie ADP changes in 2017
The first thing to know is that we have doubled down on ADP for the 2017 class and allowed very few to fade after one season. Of the 58 rookie players drafted between September and December, 46 of them have increased their fantasy draft position. 38 of those players have seen it increase by a full round (which I’m defining as 12 spots in ADP) or more.
Only two rookies drafted in September went undrafted in December: Josh Malone and Robert Davis. On the other hand, six rookies are being drafted in December who were not drafted in September (Aaron Jones, Corey Clement, Amara Darboh, Matthew Dayes, Donnel Pumphrey, and Chad Kelly).
Only eight rookies still drafted in December have fallen in ADP, and only one fell by more than a full round (Jamaal Williams). Of the 38 players who increased their ADP by more than a round:
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