Weaponizing ADP: Part One – 2017 Changes in Dynasty ADP by Draft Class
The fantasy season is dead, long live the fantasy season. It’s a bitter moment for dynasty. It’s time to stop trolling weekly volume statistics for start/sit decisions and to take a broader view. This time of the year is exactly what I like about this format. There is no off-season, and it’s great. There’s a whole new year of data to unpack and we can get started while enjoying the NFL playoffs. One of the first stops is to evaluate changes in players Average Draft Position (ADP).
Fortunately, DLF offers constantly updated Average Draft Position (ADP) data. It comes from the composite of individual drafts organized by Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23.) It’s done periodically and bases ADP on not one, but multiple different drafts. It’s especially useful because it’s specifically focused on dynasty unlike a lot of other league data which often have different types of leagues mixed in.
I’ve broken down DLF’s ADP data from September and compared it to December. I think ADP is underrated as an analysis tool for dynasty sometimes, and I’m going to try and show you why. How? By looking at the biggest fallers in ADP for players drafted between 2012 and 2016 and what they look like today in ADP. I’ll break down the most recent rookie class the same way in part two. But first I want to give some perspective on the way players are drafted over time on the basis of the latest season.
Narratives based on recency bias will rise and fall this off-season and dynasty ADP will continue to change. But right now this offers us an insight into where those mistakes are being made in dynasty.
The 2012 Draft Class
Let ‘em fall
Alshon Jeffery, Coby Fleener, and Lamar Miller
Target Players
Cole Beasley, T.Y. Hilton, and Doug Martin
Predictably there are increasingly fewer players drafted in September who are still being drafted in December the further back you go in NFL draft class. Only 24 players who came into the NFL in 2012 were drafted in September. By December five of them (Kendall Wright, Dwayne Allen, Michael Floyd, Robert Turbin, Joe Banyard) were no longer being drafted. Of those five, only Robert Turbin and Kendall Wright stand out as players I’d be interested in, either on the waiver wire or in the last round of a startup draft.
Four players from this draft class have fallen dramatically – i.e. by at least one round, which I’m defining as at least a 12 point ADP drop.
Most notable target
T.Y. Hilton falls just outside of my target group having only fallen 11.5 spots. However, he is, by far, the best player on the list from 2012. I think it’s worth checking the temperature on whoever has him in your league to see if he’s available at a discount this off-season.
Concerns over his future, both because of common (and overblown) age concerns in dynasty (he’s 28) and questions about Andrew Luck’s return have no doubt contributed to this decline. But neither of those things are a terrible concern in dynasty. Hilton is a good player and he can overcome a poor situation. There’s also at least an equal chance that his situation improves after all.
The 2013 Draft Class
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Let ‘em fall
Tyler Eifert, C.J. Anderson, Tavon Austin, and Jaron Brown
Target Players
(Maybe) Tyler Eifert, Theo Riddick, and (maybe) Jordan Reed
Yikes, 2013 has a lot of injury-riddled one-time stars to offer. Six players have fallen at least a round from September and it’s easy to see why. While I won’t talk anyone out of taking a shot on a player of Jordan Reed or Tyler Eifert’s caliber, I think you should demand a very good value to do it. The injury history of Reed and Eifert are pretty much insurmountable at this point. Still, they may well offer good value for those who are better informed, more reckless or less scared off by players with these types of injury histories.
Most notable target
Theo Riddick has dropped four rounds in ADP and I don’t know why. Did drafters in September think they were getting a workhorse? Riddick isn’t going to win you a league but he can help you secure a victory. He’s a solid third option and starter in the good matchups. What’s more his fantasy output (still with one game left) has roughly equaled his output in each of his last two seasons. So his ADP is down but his performance in fantasy remained stable.
Table from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
The 2014 Draft Class
Let ‘em fall
Terrance West, Jeremy Hill, Isaiah Crowell, Martavis Bryant, Taylor Gabriel, John Brown, and Charles Sims
Target Players
Willie Snead, Jordan Matthews, Eric Ebron, and Donte Moncrief
Now we’re talking! I like a lot of these players and impatience seems to have caused a significant drop in their dynasty stock. These players have moved past the “three-year breakout” narrative that some still like to hide behind instead of doing any actual research. It is a junk argument, and these are players have a lot of potential and a history of production. 13 players have dropped more than a round, and all but two (Branden Oliver, and C.J. Fiedorowicz) have dropped three rounds or more.
The most difficult part in evaluating the 2014 “leftover” class is deciding on one player to highlight. So before I do, I’d like to note how much I like Willie Snead, Jordan Matthews, and Donte Moncrief. I just have a broader point I’d like to make the tight end position.
Most notable target
Eric Ebron is on pace for a good career. Before the season I did a deep dive into the tight end position from a historical perspective. Among other things I concluded that Zach Ertz was due for a breakout, Delanie Walker would still be a productive tight end and Eric Ebron, while he had an outside chance to become a top-five tight end, was more likely to finish in the top 12.
I also said Martellus Bennett could be in the top five, Jimmy Graham would be in the top two and was a lock for top five (he’s sixth right now) and Evan Engram should be avoided in his first season (he’s in the top five). Those were all misses. Still, my take away from the first year of data after my study is that the trends hold true at a respectable rate.
- Young tight ends struggle
- It’s more about the player then the scheme
- Most tight ends don’t hit the top five until they are 26
Ebron is going to finish in the top 12 at the position at the age of 24. That makes his career path resemble Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce a lot more then it doesn’t. It’s distinctly not the path of Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, and Rob Gronkowski. But the only players in the league even close to hitting those marks are Reed and, now, Engram. They are rare players, and much harder to hit on with any certainty.
At his age, Ebron (despite so many calling for it before now) is now coming into the most likely range for a breakout season. I’m not predicting it for 2018, but I’d expect his late-season surge to continue and for him to finish in the top eight to ten tight ends in fantasy. Now is a fantastic time to buy in while others, who have bought-in without realizing it was against the odds, are cashing out.
The only real mistake to make in fantasy is being too early, and not being stubborn enough to hang on. The other mistake is to misunderstand, through overblown expectations, what is a good and bad result. Eric Ebron had a good 2017.
The 2015 Draft Class
Let ‘em fall
Thomas Rawls, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Ameer Abdullah, Jay Ajayi, Phillip Dorsett, and Jameis Winston
Target Players
Ty Montgomery, Tyrell Williams, and Marcus Mariota
11 players from the 2015 draft class have fallen by at least one round in December compared to their September ADP. The drop is more gradual and spread out for the 2015 class. This means values from the 2015 class are slimmer and may be harder to take advantage of in trades. As such I’m upping the limits and only considering the nine players who have fallen by at least two rounds in ADP. Which is a shame because Id’ really like to spend more time writing about Jamison Crowder and mention that you should try to get him in dynasty. Oh, look, I did anyway.
Most notable target
Of the players who have dropped more than 24 spots since September the one who stands out to me most is Tyrell Williams. I lost on Tyrell Williams this year. But my only regret is that I can’t now go out and get him at this new draft value. I haven’t seen any loss of talent this season. He is still the ultra-athletic player with a dominant college profile who broke out in the absence of Keenan Allen last year. The problem is Allen is no slouch and was a target vacuum this season, leaving little if anything for Williams.
Statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Despite this, Williams still had multiple fantasy relevant games this year including two 100-plus yard games and six with more than nine fantasy points (PPR). I’m not suggesting he was of any use in starting lineups, but it wasn’t because he forgot how to play. In fact, he did what good players do when volume diminishes, he became more efficient.
Tyrell Williams RACR in 2016 from Josh Hermsmeyer’s Airyards.com
Tyrell Williams RACR in 2017 from Josh Hermsmeyer’s Airyards.com
I think his drop in ADP is at least in part due to his UDFA status. We are always waiting for the other shoe to drop when an unheralded player breaks out in a big way. But everything about Tyrell associates him more with the likes of Adam Thielen than it does Kamar Aiken. When you find a good player, you should hold onto them. Opportunity and volume are the most predictive assets for any fantasy player, but they are also more subject to change than ability.
The 2016 Draft Class
Let ’em fall
Paul Perkins, Rob Kelley, Wendell Smallwood, Laquon Treadwell, and Jonathan Williams
Target Players
C.J. Prosise, and Tyler Boyd
Eight players have dropped by more than two rounds in ADP since being drafted in 2016. Six of them have dropped by more than two full rounds. I think these are the softest numbers yet. People are going to buy back in on the 2016 class or cash out based on off-season guessing more than any other class I’ve listed here. This is in part because they are more recent so the hype and disappointment are fresher.
However, as the draft season heats up and rosters are purged for room to make way for new rookies I’d expect 2016 players will become easier to trade.
Most notable target
C.J. Prosise is the clear standout in players drafted in 2016 who have dropped more than two rounds since September. He was injured, so his potential has not diminished. In fairness, it’s more likely that he was being overdrafted based on a good performance in a limited sample in 2016. So his new ADP is a fair price to take a swing at a promising player who hasn’t been able to put together a full season yet.
Least Notable Target
Laquon Treadwell is going to raise someone’s attention here so I thought I’d mention it. I didn’t advocate drafting him in fantasy, or trading for him, and I don’t’ think he’ll ever be fantasy relevant. But I’m not blind to the value of a first round player now going outside the top 150. Still, I won’t advocate for his value. I’m just willing to be wrong while I bet on more predictive metrics that Treadwell simply doesn’t have on his profile.
Treadwell failed to impress in age-adjusted production test in college. His market share of touchdowns and yards never exceeded 20 percent until he was 20 years old. He’s under-athletic and his hype was held up by, of all things, the belief he could “out-jump” defenders for the ball. I don’t think he’s a candidate for a Nelson Agholor-like breakout down the line because Agholor had these positive indicators on his profile.
If you want to just take the value outside the top 150 I think that’s a good process play, to be honest. But I don’t take shots on players that don’t have these positive indicators on their profiles. And I don’t (over) value draft pedigree. I’d rather take a long shot on a UDFA who needs opportunity, but I think could earn it, than a first-round receiver who has been given opportunity and squandered it.
In Closing
I’d like to thank Ryan McDowell again (@RyanMc23) again. He is the one who organizes the drafts that DLF ADP is based on. Getting a group of fantasy players to show up and draft in a timely manner, at different times of the year, when they have lives, leagues, families, and work to worry about is akin to getting a heard of cats to march in formation without breaking ranks while it’s raining salmon. I’ve taken part in several of them and I can attest to the patience and skill it needs. It’s something Ryan does with a deftness that I don’t think I’ve ever displayed at anything.
Be sure to keep a look out for part two of this article when we are going to examine the ADP changes of the 2017 rookie draft class.
In the meantime you can find me on twitter with any questions, suggestions, and GIFs you may want to share.
Pahowdy (@pahowdy)
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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