Dynasty Diaries: Decision-Making

James Simpson Posted On November 11, 2017

In Dynasty Diaries, I give you an inside look at all of my teams, their history and my plans for the future. I’d like to provide some insight into struggles I’ve faced, and reveal weekly thoughts and feelings on anything and everything football. Join me as I succeed or crash and burn. For more information on the leagues, check out the introduction or any previous post. If there is anything more you’d like to see or any questions you have, please let me know in the comments section.

At around 11/11.30am Eastern Time last weekend, I did the unthinkable. I tinkered.

Assuming Jay Ajayi would only play sparingly in Philadelphia, I had my choice of Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood to plug in to an extremely weak starting lineup that was missing Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs to bye weeks.

At the start of the week, at the usual decision-making time, I had put Clement in. It’s simple – he’s more in favour, he’s the third-down back, and he’s fully healthy. However, as the game grew closer and the mind began to wander, I convinced myself Smallwood was returning to health and the Eagles would have a lead and run the ball. Clement out, Smallwood in.

You know what happened next.

In this league (0.5 PPR), Clement racked up 25.1 points with his three-touchdown performance. Smallwood had five carries at the end of the game for 25 yards. It was a 22.6 point differential. This would have accounted for about a third of my total score. Instead, those points were on the bench. I dwelled on it all weekend.

The “good” news is that ultimately it wouldn’t have mattered, as my opponent scored 73.85 points and my ‘optimum’ lineup would have finished with 72.6. But it doesn’t make you feel better, does it? I made a last-minute overthinking decision, and cost myself the chance at a win. When you make those changes and miss out on a win, how do you feel? Does this happen to anyone else? Or just me?

Today, I’ll take a look at some of the decisions I’ve been faced with this year and ones coming up. Plus, what is the best strategy?

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The Leagues

International Dynasty League (8-1)

We rolled to another win this week, but in every single matchup I’m faced with some tough decisions at running back and receiver. Pick two from Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah and Matt Forte. It’s easy, right? Ingram and Kamara. Pick two from Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Michael Crabtree, Jordy Nelson, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews and Sterling Shepard. It gets a bit tougher, but you’re likely going Bryant and Tate for now. Now, try and select two more from outside the top four. Here’s where points are lost.

Realistically, if we beat ourselves up about every lineup decision (and occasion we were wrong) each week, fantasy football wouldn’t be any fun. A player on your bench “going off” happens all the time. But sometimes it’s tough to swallow. In the last couple of years, I’ve done two things to make life easier:

1.) Set lineups on Tuesday or Wednesday, and only make changes from then on based on injuries or inactives (nothing based on rumors or hyperbole). The later you tinker, the more stressful it gets.

2.) Use resources like 4for4 and FantasyPros to help make decisions, as well as our own lineup advice column. If a large majority of people are telling me to start Abdullah over Coleman in this non-PPR league, that’s what I’ll do. If two players are similarly ranked, it’s on me.

3.) Once the games begin, relax. There’s no point checking lineups every ten minutes for minor updates. It won’t change anything! Maybe look matchups over at half time, but if you can; wait till all is said and done. It’s a great feeling to just enjoy the games and worry about the results later.

Twitter Invitational (4-5)

Although the Clement decision was the one that formed the basis of this article, this league is probably the easiest to pick a team in. In a 16-teamer, it would be rare to have to drop any studs, so they go straight in. Most weeks, I’m looking at which RB2 to plug in – Jamaal Charles, Matt Breida or Clement. And most weeks, that shouldn’t make too much of a difference in the lineup.

What’s more of an issue right now is where to go next with this team. I didn’t technically need a win to stay alive last week, but now it may be out of my hands. At 4-6, there’s no doubt it’ll be over and moves for next year will be made. At 5-5, do I invest in a tight end (of which I have none)? Can I upgrade a starter? Staying put won’t win the Championship.

This was the topic of discussion last week, but how many of your teams are in “the middle”? Are you in a bind and you can’t work out which way to go? I’d love to hear those situations.

Groundhog’s Dynasty (5-4)

Every week, there are predicaments here. Early on, it was whether or not Terrelle Pryor should start. Now, we’re at a point where both Jordy Nelson and Pryor are out, while Adam Thielen and JuJu Smith-Schuster are in. It’s amazing how things can change, right?

Seven of the ten teams in this 2QB league are on a 5-4 record or better, but it wasn’t hard to decide I want to win now. The team looks in good shape, but lineup decisions will be crucial for the remainder of the year. Again, I’m outsourcing them all.

Kitchen Sink 3 (14-4)

Have I told you before how much I love this team? We slid into first place in the conference this week, and it’s the last week of byes for my big names. With the freedom given for starting lineup decisions here (only one required starting RB, WR and TE), I’ll fire up the PPR flex rankings and let the team pick itself. Generally, there are must-starts, and there are matchup plays. The team thankfully has two must-play QBs in Carson Wentz and Drew Brees.

Kitchen Cinco (9-9)

As mentioned last week, this team is just on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Just like clockwork, I recorded one win and one loss in the double-header. I’m sticking to my guns here – we’re aiming to make the playoffs rather than packing in and gunning for next season. Despite losing Andrew Luck and Odell Beckham; LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon and a hot Jimmy Graham provide enough firepower for me to believe.

Decision-making here will be the biggest part of the team’s success. At QB, we’ll have the weekly decision between Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett, Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Who do I start between Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson and C.J. Anderson? It’ll depend. With Chris Hogan out, does Danny Amendola see some action? Can Sammy Watkins be trusted? For this team to make some noise, every call needs to be right.

So I’m asking you – what’s your decision-making process? When do you set lineups? How do you decide the close calls? I want to know if you do it the same way as me (or not).

Other News and Notes

1.) Last week’s events should be your call to get out of Jameis Winston before it’s too late. He’d already dropped down way below his fellow 2015 draftee Marcus Mariota in my latest rankings, but the pre-game “speech” and embarrassing display of poking Marshon Lattimore summed it up for me. I’d be concerned as an owner.

2.) Isn’t it funny how we thought 2016 would be a weak year for quarterbacks, and instead it’s produced three of the hottest dynasty assets? The three big names have all been fantastic, and I clipped together all of their touchdowns on the season in three videos.

Jared Goff

All 13 of Jared Goff’s touchdown passes so far this year. #LARams pic.twitter.com/lmztSWR2nr

— James Simpson (@JS_Football) November 11, 2017

Carson Wentz

Here’s all 23 of the touchdown passes by Carson Wentz this season in two minutes. #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/FrEvHVwFZl

— James Simpson (@JS_Football) November 11, 2017

Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott has quietly scored 20 total touchdowns this season (16 passing, 4 rushing). Here’s every single one. #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/S0Hr5uW3Hb

— James Simpson (@JS_Football) November 11, 2017

Who have you been most impressed with? Do you expect all three to keep up the success?

3.) The supreme success Saquon Barkley was having at the start of the college season has slowed. I believe there may be a window here. Current last-place owners may be questioning whether he’s worth “the house”, but that creates an opportunity. Perhaps you’re able to nab that 1.01 without paying as much as you’ll have to come draft time.

4.) Jacob Feldman put together a 2017 rookie draft “redo” this week, and Kareem Hunt went at number one. Anyone else sticking with Leonard Fournette as the 1.01? I haven’t seen anything on the field to suggest he isn’t going to be a complete stud, and I’m all in.

5.) Finally, apart from the league in which I’ve held Josh Gordon since 2013, I have no interest in acquiring him. You might be wondering whether to buy, sell or hold, but I don’t see how you can invest anything worthwhile until he steps back on the field. I’m seriously pulling for him, but I want to see it. The good news is that I’m sure there will be a ton of owners who have been waiting for the opportunity to sell.

Also, if there are any players you’d like to see highlights of or discuss, or topics on your mind, please let me know in the comments section.

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James Simpson

Writer and Editor at Dynasty League Football

The great Russell Wilson once said: "the separation is in the preparation". James shares the same sentiment when it comes to dynasty success. Do the research, watch a ton of football and be relentless about building what you view to be the most talented team. Question everything, be open-minded and learn lessons every day.

As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football