2017 Rookie Draft Redo: Round One
November has arrived! Pro Basketball is back, congratulations to Houston as the new World Series Champions, and the NFL season has reached its halfway point. With the NFL season halfway, I sure hope you know if your team is a serious contender or just a pretender for this season. If you don’t know, you better sit down to do some serious and honest calculations to figure it out!
Once you have decided what you are, I suggest you hit the trading block and make the most out of what you have. In order to help you out, we are here with one last look back at the rookie class of 2017. I gathered 11 other DLF writers and we decided to do one more rookie mock draft with this year’s draft class just to see how things have changed. After all, we all know there are a lot of things to consider. How far up boards has Kareem Hunt risen? How much does Dalvin Cook’s injury hurt him? How do the big three tight ends stack up against each other now? Hopefully we can help!
For this mock, we worked under the assumption that it was PPR scoring, starting one quarterback, and that all drafters had a team without any glaring holes. We also ignored previous picks, so you might (and someone did) draft a quarterback in each round if you felt they were the best value available. Once the picks were made, I emailed each drafter a question about one of their three selections. Their responses will be included below. The draft was conducted between weeks eight and nine, so no week nine results, injuries, or headlines are included in this.
Time to get on with the show!
First Four Picks
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1.01 – Kareem Hunt, RB KC
1.02 – Leonard Fournette, RB JAC
1.03 – Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
1.04 – Corey Davis, WR TEN
Prior to the mock beginning, I made a few notes about what I expected to see. I felt that there was a drop off after the first four picks, and these were exactly the four players I expected to see. I struggled a little bit trying to figure out the exact order I felt they would go in. I tentatively slotted Hunt into the 1.01 slot due to the PPR nature of the league, but I wouldn’t fault anyone if they had Fournette as the top player. I have them very close in my own rankings. So when Hunt went first overall and Fournette second, I had some questions to ask those drafters.
Bobby Koch took Hunt with the 1.01, and I asked him if that was an easy choice for him to make. Here is what he had to say:
“Making the first overall pick wasn’t tough at all. I knew pretty clearly who I wanted my first choice to be. Kareem Hunt has been off to a historic start in his career. In fact, since 1920, he’s one of only seven running backs to have 1,000 or more rushing yards in eight games started during their rookie season. I know some people might argue for Corey Davis, but I always value proven production over potential. I also know there are those that may value Leonard Fournette more, but he strikes me as more of a two-down back.
It’s hard to find a three-down back these days, and Kareem Hunt is exactly that. His floor is incredibly safe because he’s guaranteed to see some looks in the passing games. It also doesn’t hurt that Andy Reid has a long history of getting value out of his running backs.”
I disagree a little bit with Bobby calling Fournette a two down back considering he is on pace for almost 40 catches this year (assuming he stays healthy), but he does have some good points. I then turned my attention towards the second pick, which was made by Peter Howard. I asked him how close Fournette was to Hunt in his mind and who he would have taken at the 1.01. Surely I’m not the only one who thinks it is a very small gap. Here is what Peter said:
“I’d draft Hunt with the 1.01 if given the chance. He has proven to be a three down back while Fournette has lost the small target share he began with to start the year. Fournette has been phenomenal in fantasy and fun to watch in real life, but the production numbers have relied on his heavy volume, touchdowns and big plays – all less secure and prone to regression and variance. I see it as the difference between rostering Jamaal Charles or Adrian Peterson at the start of their careers. I don’t want to compare the four directions, just their roles and skill sets. Fading injury prediction and concerns, a player like Hunt possess all of the same week to week ceiling along with a higher, and safer floor.”
Looks like both Peter and Bobby are on the same page. I can’t fault either of them for their opinions, but I still think the gap between the two is pretty small. Hunt has shown some signs of tailing off his blistering pace, and if healthy, I think Fournette has the tools to be a three down beast.
Cook and Davis went with the next two picks, and I actually expected them to go in the opposite order as I have Davis ahead in my personal rankings. Before I get to him, let me talk a bit about Cook. Several times this off-season, I talked about Cook as being one of the players I just didn’t like as much as everyone else. I couldn’t really explain it. I tried once on the DLF Podcast and just ended up calling it an “Icky” feeling. It is was just a gut feeling.
With that said, he far exceeded my expectations and looked dynamic over the first part of the season and every bit a RB1. Unfortunately, the knee injury stole the rest of the year from him, leaving a lot of questions behind. Will he come back as the same player he was pre-Injury? History tells us most but not all players do come back, but it often takes two years before we see their true form. The second major question is if he can stay healthy. He suffered through several different injuries in college, so there is a chance he could be one of those players who is brilliant when on the field, but misses time each and every year. Time will tell, but it seems his stock is still extremely high.
As for Davis, the hamstring injury seems to have hurt his stock a bit. He missed five whole games, but the good news is that hamstrings heal without surgery. Davis should be back to form very soon, and his 10 targets in his one complete game as a pro are a very positive sign in my book. I fully expect Davis to return to that form within the next week or two, and he should quickly morph into the top target for the Titans.
Once him and the rest of the young offense build some chemistry, I fully expect Davis to join the ranks of dynasty WR1s. Now is probably the best time to buy him since the price seems to have dipped a little bit. If you are a middle of the pack team, it wouldn’t hurt to offer your 2018 first round pick for him. In my mind, that would be a steal if you can get it!
Middle of the First
1.05 – Evan Engram, TE NYG
1.06 – Joe Mixon, RB CIN
1.07 – Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
1.08 – Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR
While my predictions for the first four picks were almost spot on (I had Davis and Cook switched), my predictions for the middle of the first were way off!
While I expected Engram to be somewhere in these four picks as the first TE off the board, I didn’t have him pegged as the 1.05 pick. I understand it with the hype around Engram, but in a normal PPR league, I’m not sure if the tight end position can produce enough value.
With that said, Engram has been huge this year! Rookie tight ends normally take two if not three years before they start to produce, which makes what Engram has been doing even more exceptional. Due to injury, he has basically turned into the top target on the Giants and will likely be the number two option in the passing game for 2018 and beyond. He isn’t a complete tight end, but that really doesn’t matter to fantasy owners. He’s probably already a top five tight end in dynasty rankings and could be pushing for top three. If you have any type of TE premium scoring, he’s easily worth this pick.
When compared to the running backs already drafted in this mock, Mixon has had a disappointing year so far. That is really only because of how exceptional some of the other running backs have actually been. Mixon has posted double digit fantasy points in three of his seven games so far, and he just missed in a fourth. When you consider he is still splitting time with not one but two veterans that should be pretty reassuring. Mixon’s role will only continue to grow, and it is just a matter of time before he takes the reins and runs away with the primary role. I don’t know if he has the same upside as some of the other running backs in this class, but I think he can be an every week starter for 2018 and beyond.
While I understand the selections of the other three players in this group, I did a bit of a double take when Kupp was selected. Maybe I’m missing the boat a bit on Kupp, but I don’t view him as middle of the first round material. I asked Robert Brannon, who made the pick, to explain it to me a little bit just in case I am missing something. Here was his response:
“Coming into the pre-draft season in March, Cooper Kupp was running a close second in my rookie dyno ranks next to Corey Davis. As a zero-RB strategist, I place an emphasis on investing at WR for a multitude of reasons. I won’t bore you with them, so I’ll keep this memo about Kupp. I own zero shares of Cooper Kupp because of compounding expert analysis this draft season, as I traded back from just about every opportunity to draft him. I was using a couple different ADP rankings to determine that I should try to draft him much later than I originally planned.
The second factor that lulled me into this trap was his situation being drafted to the Rams. We all know that has been turned around (much credit to Sean McVay). Finally, I made another critical mistake this March by paying too much attention to the combine performances of some of these rookies (Kupp was the most startling). All of these missteps contributed to talking myself out of drafting my #2 rookie at every opportunity.
This past February, I poured deeper into my scouting than I ever had before. I hesitate to look back and see what it is I saw about Cooper Kupp that made him my #2 WR. I feel sick knowing I drafted multiple shares of John Ross, Curtis Samuel, Reuben Foster, Chris Godwin, and Taywan Taylor while passing on my guy… because I listened to the wisdom of the crowd instead of myself.”
You have to admire a guy for coming up with his own opinions and sticking to them. However, I’m unconvinced he is worth a middle first. Yes, the Rams are much better than expected, but I still have the same concerns about Kupp that I’ve always had. I view him as more of a complementary receiver, someone who gets 4-5 receptions per game for about 50 yards. Part of the reason for that is I think Kupp is already a finished product. He is very polished on the things you can improved and relatively limited on the things you can’t. I just don’t see a lot of future growth here to warrant this kind of draft capital but time will tell!
The final player in this grouping was McCaffrey. I expected him to be near the top of this grouping instead of the 1.08 pick. Yes, he has been more of an afterthought in the rushing game so far, but I think most of us expected that at this point in his career. The fact that he is on pace for 98 receptions on 132 targets is why he was viewed as a great target in a PPR league. Just for comparison sake, McCaffrey has double the number of receptions of Kupp. I think the rushing production will come along, and while we wait, we get to have someone who is producing like a high end WR2 from the running back position. He’s definitely worth a middle first round pick in my eyes. I still have him as the fifth player in this draft class.
Last Four Picks of the First
1.09 – Alvin Kamara, RB NO
1.10 – Deshaun Watson, QB HOU
1.11 – Mke Williams, WR LAC
1.12 – JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
The last four picks in this mock features a pair of fast risers, one player who seems to be holding steady, and then one player who at one point was in the discussion as a top three pick in this draft.
Kamara was a player I wasn’t sure where to place him. He has looked dynamic at times on the field, but he’s also been limited in his role. Even with the Saints’ commitment to running the ball recently, Kamara has been limited to 10 or fewer rushes each and every week this year. Add in 3-5 receptions each week (except for week 10), and you have very nice production with a limited role. Mark Ingram is looking good this year and doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Kamara has the look for a RB2/3 who is a big play waiting to happen. He is a high floor player thanks to his role in the passing game, but he is going to be touchdown dependent if he is going to create high end RB2 numbers.
I had a feeling Watson was going to make an appearance in the late first, and I was right. Few players have had the hype Watson has enjoyed over the last few weeks. People are already talking of him as a top five dynasty quarterback, which is saying a lot with some of the other quarterbacks to be drafted recently. His ACL tear came after this draft had taken place, and after the following comments from Bradley Ylitalo, who drafted not one, not two, but three quarterbacks in this mock:
“Watson is in an excellent situation in Houston under QB guru Bill O’Brien with young weapons, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, surrounding him. He’s been by far the best rookie QB and been among the leagues best fantasy wise ranking at number two as we reach week nine. Watson may not keep up this elite level of production, but it sure looks like we can bet on him being a solid player in this league for a long time. Near the end of the first round, I’m happy with that kind of value, even in one QB leagues.”
Even post injury, I think Watson is worth a late first in one quarterback leagues. The torn ACL makes the perfect opportunity to try buying him for less, especially for people who own aging stars like Drew Brees or Tom Brady.
With the 1.11 pick, Mike Williams finally comes off the board. Out of all of the rookies, Williams has had arguably the worst start. First there was the back injury, and then the lack of production since he has returned to the field. So far it has the look of a lost season for Williams. If you were a fan of his during the draft process, now is the time to check in on his current owner and see how they feel. Personally, I was never a huge fan of his, so I’m more inclined to just stay away from him for the time being.
The final pick in the round goes to one of the darlings of this rookie class, JuJu Smith-Schuster. For a while, JuJu’s stock was definitely falling. He went from potential first overall pick in fantasy drafts a few years ago to a middle round pick, to a fringe first rounder. After some recent performances he is starting to trend up again. I actually expected him to be higher than this, so I asked Travis May how high he would have taken JuJu and what he sees as his eventual upside.
“JuJu Smith-Schuster was always a fantastic wide receiver. The only reason he ever saw any downturn in college production was due to the putrid play of Max Browne to start 2016. Landing in Pittsburgh had the majority of dynasty owners worried, but JuJu is clearly already a solid pro. I would have drafted him in this mock as high as 9th.
Moving forward I would expect to see him garner more targets than he was averaging prior to his explosion against the Lions. He was only seeing about four targets per game before. If the Steelers decide to give him even just two more looks per game JuJu could present consistent flex value. His upside is limited for now on a week to week basis thanks to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, but he has a bright future. When Antonio Brown turns 34 JuJu will still just be 25. At that time there is no reason to assume JuJu couldn’t absorb nine or ten targets per game. I’m not sure he ever truly earns a lead wide receiver, but if the Steelers figure out their QB post-Roethlisberger his ceiling is probably a Davante Adams or Michael Crabtree. He’ll never lead the league in yards, but he can move the chains and score when his team gets in close.”
Travis is clearly a fan, and if the past few weeks are the trend, it is easy to see why. JuJu could turn into one of the premier number two receivers in the NFL. It is of course a small sample size, but I’m definitely intrigued!
That’s it for the first round. Round two will be up very soon!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
