Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Quez Watkins, WR PHI

James Simpson

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Quez Watkins

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: Philadelphia Eagles

College Team: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Draft status: Round six, 200th overall

Video Highlights

Combine review

  • Height: 6’2″
  • Weight: 190 lbs
  • Arms: 32.9″
  • Hands: 9″
  • 40-yard dash: 4.35 seconds
  • Bench press: N/A
  • Three-cone: 7.28 seconds
  • Vertical jump: 36.5″
  • Broad jump: N/A

Strengths

  • Speed! Henry Ruggs led this year’s Scouting Combine pack with a 4.27-second 40-yard dash time, but Watkins impressed with a 4.35, the second-fastest among all receivers and third-fastest overall.
  • Production – Although not against the highest level of opponents, Watkins managed 159 catches, 2,404 yards and 17 receiving touchdowns over three seasons, and was named First-team All-Conference USA in both 2018 and 2019.
  • Return value – Has experience as a punt and kick returner and scored on a return in 2018.
  • Ascending talent – Lance Zierlein of NFL.com said his leap in production over his college career was a “good sign” and that “the potential outweighs the concerns”. Watkins could have more room to grow when he competes with better opponents.
  • Acrobatic catches – watch the video above and his highlight reel at Patriots.com. Although it’s just a snapshot, he makes a few ‘wow’ grabs – showing he is more than capable of going up to get it.

Weaknesses

  • As of now, he is unproven against NFL talent. When facing Alabama – the team’s clear best opposing team last season – Watkins managed just three catches for 24 yards. He also only hauled in three balls for 13 yards against Florida Atlantic.
  • Not the most smooth athlete – hands, feet, hips, ability to maneuver must all improve.
  • A little undersized for his height – could struggle physically.

Opportunities

After taking Jalen Reagor in the first round, John Hightower in the fifth, and adding Marquise Goodwin in a trade with the 49ers, Philadelphia have a crowded receiver room. However, they are clearly looking for changes, so will give chances to everyone.

READ: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: John Hightower, WR PHI

Can he play in the slot and be a mismatch? Could he prove to be a more reliable target for Carson Wentz after the quarterback has dealt with so many targets who either can’t catch the ball or don’t go up to get it in contested-catch situations? By winning 50/50 battles in the air, Watkins could get in his quarterback’s good books.

With question marks around the Eagles’ veterans, a good first impression will be very important.

Threats

Reagor, Hightower and Goodwin were all added to an existing group of Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, last year’s second-round pick JJ Arcega-Whiteside and impressive 2019 stand-in Greg Ward. Watkins will have to vie for targets from all of them.

Plus, we can’t ignore the fact Wentz favors throwing to his tight ends. Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert were first and second on the team in targets last season with 135 and 87, respectively. Every other receiver on this roster is a threat to Watkins, and he will be easily forgotten if others outperform him.

Short-term expectations

The Eagles spread the ball around a lot, and outside of just a few players, have not produced many fantasy-relevant wide receivers. In fact, their top WR under Doug Pederson hasn’t finished in the top 20 fantasy scorers. More importantly for a later option like Watkins, their fantasy WR3 has finished 87th, 73rd, 104th and 102nd in fantasy points from 2016-2019.

screen shot 2020 07 14 at 09.26.17

Image from DLF’s Coaching History App.

Last season, ‘slightly involved’ players JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins both received just 22 targets and made ten receptions. We really can’t expect much more from Watkins than that with the tight ends, healthy receivers and Miles Sanders all ahead of the rookie in the pecking order.

Don’t expect to start him at all in year one.

Long-term expectations

Let’s take a positive look at the situation. Although there will be rookie struggles (even more than usual with training camps and the preseason in question), organizations may give more time to their younger players.

Next off-season, there is a strong chance the Eagles unload one of – if not both of – DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery and their hefty salaries. They certainly aren’t committed to Goodwin either after simply flipping sixth-round draft picks with the 49ers for his services.

While the expectation is that Reagor steps up as the leading wideout, there will be chances for others to emerge. After his day-three selection, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said: “I thought Watkins in most years is a third or fourth-round pick.

“Very smooth, a lot of separation at the top of his route. They will use him on a lot of those over routes. When you watch him out in the open field, you are not going to catch him.”

He may have talent, it will just be hard to break through immediately. I suspect if Watkins’ value is ever going to ascend, it will be next off-season.

NFL player comparison

NFL Combine Results lists the most similar wide receiver – in terms of athletic profile – as fellow rookie Justin Jefferson. As purely an athletic comparison, it gives us an idea of what he looks like on the field – but also lends to the idea that Watkins could be used in the slot with his body type.

Zierlein’s NFL.com profile on Watkins picks out J’Mon Moore as his comparison. A career arc similar to Moore’s (two catches in his rookie campaign before being cut) would be disappointing, but is unfortunately entirely reasonable for a sixth-rounder like Watkins.

Although taller and heavier himself, Watkins did mention Eagles receiver Jackson as a role model. “Oh, man. DeSean has really been one of my role models as a receiver as speed guy, kind of a similar body style,” Watkins said. Take the stylistic comparison with a pinch of salt, but Watkins will also look to stretch the field.

Projected rookie draft range

Very late! You will be able to get him if you want him. In the post-draft rookie ADP, Watkins was the 51st-ranked rookie and the WR24. In startup drafts, that leaves him undrafted.

He is not worth picking up outside of leagues with very deep rosters or ones that allow rookies on the taxi squad.

james simpson