Dynasty Quarterback Rankings for 2QB/Superflex Leagues
We’ve seen a monumental shift this season. The old guard of quarterbacks who we’ve come to know, love and rely on are dwindling. Our recent top two are absent. More noticeably, a contingent of young stars are rising through the ranks. There’s no doubt there will be major rankings shifts in the dynasty quarterback landscape heading into 2018.
I’m sure, like me, there will be a large contingent of you who play in 2QB or superflex dynasty leagues. While the ‘Dynasty QB1’ debate might seem pointless or unnecessary for those of you who only play 1QB, many of us play in leagues where much more importance is placed on quarterbacks.
Today, I’ll take a closer look at the quarterbacks in dynasty fantasy football and how they should be valued – or at least, I’ll give it a go based on ADP data, our consensus rankings and my own thoughts. I had an attempt in the preseason, but much has changed since then. Let’s take a look.
Tier 1
Aaron Rodgers, GB – Oct ADP: QB1, Age: 33
I don’t think you can shift Rodgers from the top spot just yet. Through five games, he’d thrown 13 touchdowns and was on pace for another superb season. Knowing that Drew Brees and Tom Brady have had some of their best statistical seasons aged 33 and older, I wouldn’t be too discouraged about plugging Rodgers straight back in next year.
Also, don’t be fooled into thinking Rodgers is just a target for ‘contending’ teams. Unless you’re planning to contend in 2023, you should be happy with him on any roster.
Andrew Luck, IND – Oct ADP: QB2, Age: 28
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As much we talk up Rodgers as the greatest QB in the game, in terms of fantasy points; Luck might have been even better in recent years. These numbers are taken from ‘Searching for Consistent Greatness: Quarterbacks‘ published before this season got underway:
The number highlighted is the percentage each quarterback has hit the ‘QB1’ threshold of 22.5 points over the last three seasons in games played. Luck has an outstanding lead in in QB1 percentage, also tops the list in top 24 percentage, and I don’t see why it would change when he makes his return. Bobby Koch recently discussed Luck staying as a top option, and I’m completely with him.
The obvious concern is his health. If that shoulder never reaches 100% again, he won’t produce the same results. But with a long recovery time, and hopefully a new coach in the future who concerns themselves with protecting him, I want Luck on my dynasty squads – especially if I can add him at a discount.
Russell Wilson, SEA – Oct ADP: QB3, Age: 28
It took a four-touchdown, last-minute comeback to restore faith, but at least based on a Monday poll, Wilson jumped back in front of some youngsters nipping at his heels. One of my personal favourites, I’ve seen Wilson number one overall for some dynasty owners, and I can’t argue with it. He’s going to be great for a long time.
Tier 2
Marcus Mariota, TENÂ – Oct ADP: QB4, Age: 23
If you’re not performing right now, you’re being forgotten in dynasty football. Take a look at this poll from last week:
Dynasty startup today. Who ya got?
— James Simpson (@JS_Football) October 27, 2017
It says a lot about the love for Carson Wentz right now, but for me it might say just as much about the 2015 quarterback duo – Mariota and Jameis Winston. After taking a good step from year one to two, the Titans QB has been extremely disappointing this season; throwing only four touchdowns and simply struggling. Returning after the bye week to (hopefully) full health and adding a (hopefully) healthy Corey Davis, I’m sure he’ll remind us soon why he deserves to be in this conversation.
Dak Prescott, DAL – Oct ADP: QB11, Age: 24
The two biggest stars of the 2016 quarterback class so far have ended up in the NFC East, and this should be a great rivalry for years to come. While Wentz was struggling last season, Prescott was taking his team to the number one seed in his conference with 29 total touchdowns and just four picks. This year, he’s flying under the radar with 14 passings TDs and three on the ground. It’s Wentz’ time now, but like Luck and Wilson, or Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley, Prescott and Wentz will be tied together for their careers – and I can’t separate them in rankings just yet.
Carson Wentz, PHIÂ – Oct ADP: QB12, Age: 24
As if beating Prescott and dominating Mariota and Winston wasn’t enough, check out the results from this poll before the weekend’s set of games:
Okay, new one. Dynasty startup. Who ya got? #dynasty @DLFootball
— James Simpson (@JS_Football) October 28, 2017
Here’s where I differ from the majority (of voters). Wentz has been outstanding. Stunning. In fact, as an Eagles fan I can’t believe my luck. But in terms of fantasy football scoring, I can’t move him over Luck and Wilson yet. He’s firmly in contention to keep moving up, but he settles just behind the top options for now.
Deshaun Watson, HOU – Oct ADP: QB13, Age: 22
Watson is breaking records left, right and center. How he managed to roll into Seattle and put up over 400 yards and four TDs was insane. Just like Wentz, trying to find issues is nitpicking – but, like Wentz, the sample size is small. I’m excited for what he’s capable of, but I think we need to see how he rebounds from any lull before anointing him the next Rodgers, Luck or Wilson.
Tier 3
Cam Newton, CARÂ – Oct ADP: QB10, Age: 28
What do we make of Cam? 2015 was the best fantasy season of his career, and last year was his worst. In 2017, he’s averaging 21.9 points per game (eighth in the league), so owners should be content right? The issue is, he’s had four games with under 17 points, and three with over 29 – plus the league-leading same amount of interceptions as DeShone Kizer (11).
Either way, he’s still a great fantasy play. Just perhaps not as great as he has been. He’s so unpredictable right now he has his own tier. At his best, he’s one of the best fantasy assets in football, but he’s not showing it consistently.
Tier 4
Drew Brees, NO – Oct ADP: QB9, Age: 38
Here’s a tweet from before the season:
Tier 4 – Drew Brees.
Last 11 years: QB2, QB3, QB1, QB2, QB3, QB1, QB1, QB2, QB3, QB6, QB2.
2017: QB?— James Simpson (@JS_Football) July 7, 2017
The “QB?” now? QB10, with a game in hand on some QBs who have played eight games. He’s still crushing it for you. Veteran producers just get cheaper with age, and at this rate Brees continues to be one of the biggest bargains around.
Tom Brady, NE – Oct ADP: QB6, Age: 40
Brady has “quietly” put up 16 touchdowns and leads the league in yards, so he’s obviously still got it. As long as he plays, he’s a QB1 – and he’ll probably just get cheaper each year. Brady’s actually being drafted fairly highly.
Tier 5
Matt Ryan, ATL – Oct ADP: QB8, Age: 32
Ryan had “one of those years” in 2016. He got his mind right, had a great offensive mind in Kyle Shanahan making things easy, and everything clicked. But he’s fallen back down to earth this season, into the decent-to-good category. That’s where he belongs – you can be happy starting him, and you’ll be able to plug him in for a good few more years.
Derek Carr, OAKÂ – Oct ADP: QB7, Age: 26
Carr hit the heights of dynasty QB3 (!) last year, and I was baffled. Every young player has their moment in the spotlight, and the best thing to do as an owner is “downgrade” by seemingly taking a step back and getting some compensation. He didn’t deserve being at the top, but he’s fine here with the Ryans and Staffords of the world.
Jameis Winston, TB – Oct ADP: QB5, Age: 23
I don’t particularly like Winston as a fantasy asset. Through his first two years, he had one of the best fantasy floors among QBs. In fact, he was tied with only Andrew Luck by placing in the top 24 in 97 percent of his games. However, when players experience as many “real life” struggles as Winston, there’s cause for concern. He threw 33 interceptions in his first two years, and continues to have issues this season. I can see why his youth is an argument for having him higher, but that doesn’t move the needle for me, especially at the QB position.
Matthew Stafford, DET – Oct ADP: QB14, Age: 29
Usually, a 12-touchdown, four-interception start to the season would be deemed quite impressive. But it’s not when you’re losing games, and youngsters are showing more upside. Stafford should continue at this level for most of his career, with a chance at a strong season if things click like they did with Ryan in 2016.
Alex Smith, KC – Oct ADP: QB22, Age: 33
I’d understand if drafters aren’t willing to move Smith this high, but he’s essentially doing what Ryan did last year is only a year older. He could continue to hold off Patrick Mahomes and be a great value for a couple of years. In 2QB leagues, this production holds more weight. If you want to know how some of the DLF rankers value him, check out Smith’s edition of Vox Talks.
Kirk Cousins, WAS – Oct ADP: QB15, Age: 29
A little similarly to Winston, my main hesitation with Cousins is his ‘real-life’ play. I know QB wins shouldn’t be a sole determinant in an evaluation, but I’m convinced he’s a pretty good player who scores better in fantasy than he plays on the field, and that can catch up with you. I don’t think the Jimmy Garoppolo trade should affect his value too much, but it can tell you that Kyle Shanahan wasn’t adamant and dead set on securing him.
Tier 6
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE – Oct ADP: QB25, Age: 25
He was in what’s now Tier 10, but things have changed dramatically in the last 24 hours with his trade to San Francisco. He’s in a tier of his own, because his value could make drastic shifts either way based on the rest of the season and summer. What does this trade say to me? The Niners aren’t convinced about the quarterbacks at the top of the 2018 class, and they didn’t want to take their chances in a bidding war for Kirk Cousins. Tied with Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy G has a fantastic opportunity.
Tier 7
Philip Rivers, LAC – Oct ADP: QB21, Age: 35
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT – Oct ADP: QB20, Age: 35
This pair have given us over a decade of great fantasy football scoring, and as long as they still play the game, they are worthy of starting in your teams. However, the clock is ticking. Roethlisberger has already discussed retiring, and for how long can Rivers put up with missing out? Heading into 2018, this duo could be moved up a tad, or disappear from rankings.
Tier 8
Tyrod Taylor, BUF – Oct ADP: QB19, Age: 28
Andy Dalton, CIN – Oct ADP: QB24, Age: 29
Jared Goff, LAR – Oct ADP: QB16, Age: 22
There’s definitely an argument for Taylor to go higher, but he’s not proven himself as a top fantasy quarterback. He’s on pace to throw for fewer than 20 touchdowns for a third straight season, so where’s the upside? Similarly, Andy Dalton has his ups and downs but isn’t someone to write home about. You’ll be happy to have him as a QB2 in 2QB leagues, but not as your QB1. Goff could move up if he proves to be more than a product of a tremendously designed offense.
Tier 9
Eli Manning, NYG – Oct ADP: QB27, Age: 36
Joe Flacco, BAL – Oct ADP: QB31, Age: 32
Sam Bradford, MIN – Oct ADP: QB26, Age: 29
Blake Bortles, JAC – Oct ADP: QB28, Age: 25
Ryan Tannehill, MIA – Oct ADP: QB32, Age: 29
Do you want any of these players? Probably not. Do you feel a little content starting them? Sure. Bradford seems to be the one with “upside”, but there is always something holding him back. Manning and Flacco are career-long starters, while Jacksonville is sticking with Bortles at least for now. I don’t want them, but I’ll take them. A healthy Ryan Tannehill is in that same category for me.
Tier 10
Patrick Mahomes, KC – Oct ADP: QB18, Age: 22
Mitch Trubisky, CHI – Oct ADP: QB17, Age: 23
Two rookies in completely different situations remain wild cards to me. We simply have to show patience – how many dynasty owners had made their mind up of Goff and Wentz after year one? Naturally, Mahomes doesn’t help anyone on benches while Trubisky does, but I wouldn’t want to start him in an ideal world either. Their value moving forward is yet to be determined.
Tier 11
Jacoby Brissett, IND – Oct ADP: QB33, Age: 23
DeShone Kizer, CLE – Oct ADP: QB23, Age: 21
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN – Oct ADP: QB29, Age: 25
All three of these players are a little mysterious. Brissett should have a whole season to prove himself, but as of right now is struggling as a passer. Kizer is young, but the Browns might have destroyed his confidence already in half a season. I liked Bridgewater a lot, but until he gets back on the field and gets up from a few hits, I don’t know what to make of his future.
Tier 12
We’ve reached the point of players who no longer require their own blurbs. In this tier, I’d plop veteran starters who are likely to be replaced after this year:
- Trevor Siemian
- Jay Cutler
- Josh McCown
- Case Keenum
All of them are playable right now, but aren’t blowing away owners with weekly magic. I can’t imagine these NFL teams will settle on them moving forward.
Similarly, I’ll add Carson Palmer to this tier. If he’s back for one more year, sure he has higher potential than everyone in this group. But with too many question marks, the main one being if he’s sure of a starting gig, it’s hard to get keep him high on radars.
The Rest
Outside of the names listed, Paxton Lynch intrigues me. I don’t see anything in particular, but was known as a “raw” prospect coming out, so should get another chance (side note – the one position you don’t want a raw prospect is QB). Brett Hundley has a lot of work to do to establish himself as someone any other team in the league will want as a starter, so I’m out. C.J. Beathard had his chance. Stick a fork in Mike Glennon, Brian Hoyer and Tom Savage – they are done.
We might be coming to the end of an era of great quarterbacks soon, but new stars are emerging. There’s no doubt these rankings will change with every turn of the 2017 season and beyond.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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