Vox Talks: What is the Dynasty Value of Alex Smith?
Welcome back to another edition of Vox Talks; the series that peels back the curtain on the private DLF writer Voxer chat.
The last couple of weeks we have looked at trade targets in a more general sense depending on whether or not your teams are competing in 2017 are playing for the future. This week we get back to focusing on a specific player.
If you have been playing fantasy football for any extended length of time then you know that in general Alex Smith has been a pretty lackluster asset unless you play in a superflex format. That all changed this season with Smith quarterbacking one of the most exciting offenses in the league. Smith is currently the QB2 in overall points scored at the position and QB4 on a points per game basis.
This is uncharted territory for a quarterback that has thrown just 15 touchdowns in each of his last two seasons. Entering week eight Smith already has 15 in just the first seven games of the 2017 season. I’m not saying this new version of Alex Smith is the one here to stay, but I am saying that he is an attractive trade target for a contending team that has lost someone like Aaron Rodgers or Carson Palmer.
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His October ADP rose 58 spots from September but in terms of draft position, he remains a bargain. To me, it feels like a late second round pick in a one QB league should get it done in most cases. In a superflex or two QB league, you are likely to have to pay a late first or more but that’s still a small price to pay for a title if you are set everywhere else. Let’s see what some of our writers had to say about this tough-to-value asset.
Alex Smith is worth next to nothing one QB leagues. I say that assuming a standard 12 team league. The problem is the QB position is so devalued that everyone has a starter they are likely comfortable with. It’s a completely different ballgame in two QB or superflex. If I was a strong contender I’d go to a mid-first with how he’s playing. If I was selling in superflex I’d look to get at a minimum a pick in the 1.8-1.10 range while feeling I could likely do better than that.
If I’m a contender in a superflex then I’m riding out his hot year, but buying him feels too much like paying max value for Matt Ryan last year or Andy Dalton a few years ago. If I just lost Rodgers or have other QB worries I’d part with a first if I was confident it would lock in a title. As a seller, I’d be looking to deal him for first round value too. In terms of players, I’d be trying for a rookie QB like Deshone Kizer or better.
In a one-QB league, Smith’s value rests entirely on whether I have a solid QB in place. His performance is going to make his price tag a little too high unless an injury or major weakness forces my hand. I’m likely not going to trade any young QB with major upside. Smith’s output and situation could change dramatically next season. In a 2QB or superflex, I would be more willing to deal for him, but again I’m not going to want to give up young QB talent. They know as well as I do that his situation is tenuous, so I’m unlikely to offer the kind of payday a Smith owner would want to see. I’ll take a chance on a Josh McCown or similar fill-in first.
One QB: late second/early third. Two QB/superflex: late first/early second. To me, those areas are a comfort zone in both formats where you’re getting some necessary production, that you hope maintains, without giving up real roster value. Even if his production does decline, he’ll still be usable in case of injury or bye weeks.
I don’t think people are giving Alex Smith the credit that he deserves. Dynasty owners can’t seem to get past the Alex Smith that we’ve seen the past 12 seasons. He has proven he’s a different quarterback than we’ve come to expect. That being said I’m not paying more than a second in a one QB league. In superflex, however, I’d easily give up a mid 1st.
Smith is the perfect buy for a contender right now. He has almost 2,000 yards passing to go along with 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. He still has one year left on his contract in KC and is the same age as Aaron Rodgers. If he stays the course I could see KC signing him to a small extension. Andy Reid wants to win and won’t force Patrick Mahomes into action prematurely.
Rebuilding teams are in a difficult position and I’d be hard-pressed to believe they would get adequate compensation, I’d recommend holding until someone gets desperate for quarterback help.
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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