December Dynasty ADP: Too Highs and Too Lows
Ryan McDowell recently released the latest version of DLF’s dynasty ADP data, and it was like Christmas had come early. I couldn’t help myself but unwrap it, dive in and start to dissect it.
To give you an idea of the context and timing of the data collection, the staff mock I took part in began on December 5th, and ended on the 14th (you can see the running back-heavy team I drafted here). Like every startup, my team didn’t feel very ‘complete’, and in non-mock situations I’d make a few more moves to change that, but I saw it as another opportunity to learn about the current dynasty landscape.
We should always use these mock drafts as more of a chance to try new things, experiment a little and gain more insight into other drafter’s tendencies. Will Todd Gurley still go high? Which veterans are owners avoiding? Who are the latest youngsters to receive massive rise in value? Who can we be excited about as an undervalued player in the off-season?
Here, I’ll recap the first ten rounds and identify some players who I consider too high or too low. While the ‘too highs’ are food for thought, the real focus should be on the too lows. In order to fall to certain ADPs, it means every owner is ignoring that player – even if you’re the one who sees them in a positive light, it might not take too much to acquire them.
Round One
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Too highs:Â The two clear names who stand out are this year’s biggest flops, DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson. If they are ‘elite’, they will overcome their bad quarterback play soon enough, right? What if they don’t? Should we get out before it’s too late? They haven’t lost any value yet, but if either starts next year like 2016, we will have to react. While I’m a huge Sammy Watkins fan, I’m not sure if he’s proven himself worthy of top 12 status yet.
Too lows: If our dynasty mindset wasn’t so wide-receiver-centric based on recent years, both Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson could go in the 1.01 spot. In fact, I wouldn’t fault anyone who took them there considering the difference they make at the position. Also, I think Le’Veon Bell is just as good, if not better than both of them, so at the end of the first round he feels like a bargain. Stealing his team mate Antonio Brown anywhere outside the top five seems like an awesome deal to me as well.
Round Two
Too highs:Â Todd Gurley, another high-profile flop, is the one who sticks out like a sore thumb. Dynasties, much like rebellions, are built on hope – and we are still hopeful on the sophomore star. But that’s a whole lot of value, and picking up a combination of assets who could also provide hope would be a totally acceptable way to go if you’re still receiving good offers for him. However, I’m not sure his ADP and his trade value quite add up right now. Brandin Cooks also went a little too high (12) in one draft, but probably too low in another (27).
With Melvin Gordon, I really hate to say it, but it might be time to cash out. I have been ‘all in for Melvin’ for an age, and was a huge fan of his value coming into the year. However, every player has their peak. In fact, they might peak more than once, but in order to maximize team value you must take advantage at those times. In no way am I against holding Gordon, but it’s always about value. If I really like a player and they are undervalued, obviously I’m going to hold on. But when they reach potential, no one should be untouchable. Is another owner in your league now more infatuated than you? Explore that possibility.
Too lows:Â Dez Bryant could quite easily be closer to (if not higher than) AJ Green. He is truly elite, and still has multiple years left to play at a high level. This off-season, if we see owners begin to worry about him approaching the big ’30’, it will be a great time to buy at a discount. The initial injury discount window has passed for Keenan Allen, but he probably won’t rise too far until we get closer to the 2017 season. I still value him as a top tier receiver.
Round Three
Too highs:Â Lamar Miller is clearly too high, in my mind. He finally received the volume we craved, but might not be cut out for it. He’s currently just outside the top 12 in PPR leagues, but valued at RB7 in this ADP data. Yes, he could be serviceable again, but there will always be running backs capable of doing more. Jarvis Landry is a great football player, but I still don’t love the fantasy ceiling. Has DeVante Parker really done enough to be a top 30 dynasty player? Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t rebounded well in his return from an ACL tear, and I expect the community to get more excited about a number of other players over him this summer.
Too lows:Â Considering Davante Adams’ age, recent performances and situation moving forward, I can certainly see the argument he should be higher. He has explosive potential, and although he might be difficult to buy right now, he’s on the way up. Demaryius Thomas has been a top ten receiver this year, despite his ‘old’ age and dreadful play from his quarterback. He could do exactly the same thing for the next couple of years, and I’ve no doubt his price will keep dropping.
Round Four
Too highs:Â Randall Cobb is reaching a stage in his career where we might have to accept he is simply a ‘WR2’. He will be involved, but I don’t love his upside. Similarly, I think we’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves on Jamison Crowder. Has he over-performed? Absolutely, but he’s still only the WR22 this year with just two games over 14 PPR fantasy points. I’m fine with Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce as the second and third tight ends off the board, but I wouldn’t tend to look at the position this early.
Too lows:Â Doug Baldwin was a star last year, is still a WR1 this year, and is Russell Wilson’s top target. We know Wilson had a down year, so when he has a better year Baldwin is likely to benefit. I still love Sterling Shepard’s potential and the price isn’t too high. Also, Carlos Hyde is an outstanding talent. He was drafted way too high in one mock (19), but is a good pickup in the 50 range.
Round Five
Too highs: Derek Carr is too high. Both in the full ADP data, and within his position. QB3? Please. I understand it based on the way he’s lifted the Raiders in ‘real life’, but he doesn’t belong that high in a fantasy setting. I believe DeMarco Murray is due for an immediate drop in production at some point soon, but it might not be until we get into next season. The issue is, we will probably get very excited about backup Derrick Henry in the off-season, which will eat away at Murray’s value. What to do? I say move him if the value holds, keep him if his value drops. Similarly, avoid at his highest startup price (29) and draft at his lowest (82). Doug Martin is also someone who I’d move on from if I owned.
Too lows: I believe Josh Doctson is low now, because I think by the time we reach the start of next year he will have moved up a couple of rounds. When the training camp reports start coming out about how he’s ‘finally fully healthy’ and ‘looks like the star we drafted’, we’ll be smitten. The same can be said for Laquon Treadwell. So if you do believe in them, get them early. As I mentioned above, Henry should move up as we get closer to the 2017 season (in a Christine Michael-to-Marshawn Lynch way).
Round Six
Too highs: Running backs come and go so quickly, and Jeremy Hill really isn’t living up to expectations. Perhaps you would be able to get him a little later in most startups since one drafter drove his ADP up by taking him at 35 overall, but I don’t see the appeal. Marvin Jones had an outstanding start, but that’s all it was. I’d like to see a little more from big December riser (32 spots) Malcolm Mitchell before we place him in this range.
Too lows: Within the context of quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers is clearly too low. Apart from a down 2015 and an injury-plagued 2013, he’s finished in the top two fantasy quarterbacks every year since 2008. This is simply outrageous, and he’s only 33. I say only, because 37-year-old Drew Brees is likely to extend his streak of finishing in the top six quarterbacks (with only one year outside the top three) to ten years by the season’s end. If CJ Anderson keeps dropping, I will keep on buying.
Round Seven
Too highs:Â Latavius Murray is a curious name. After the season he’s had, I’d think he would be higher. However, with free agency on the way, I think he’ll rise even more and that’s when it will be time to move on. Tyreek Hill is probably being held on to more tightly than this data suggests, and could be worth a hell of a lot. Theo Riddick will have competition next year (more on that to come).
Too lows:Â CJ Prosise was everyone’s favorite back for about two weeks, then he vanished into thin air. Unless Thomas Rawls completely takes the reigns of this job, Prosise will be heavily involved next year. Jimmy Graham is still ‘tight end young’ at 30, and I’m certainly not avoiding him any more. Jeremy Maclin is a proven performer in this league, and a down year won’t scare me away. Finally, Kenneth Dixon’s long-term upside is definitely an ‘A’, so don’t hesitate to invest now.
Round Eight
Too highs:Â Devontae Booker didn’t really pan out, did he? While the whole offense hasn’t been running with Trevor Siemian under center, Booker missed a chance to cement himself as the feature back. Anderson won’t let that job go easily next year. I’m resigned to the fact Dorial Green-Beckham won’t live up to the hype, and unfortunately Duke Johnson couldn’t even carve out a role as a strong PPR back this year. In a startup draft, I’m not likely to gamble on two players approaching the end of their careers in Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall.
Too lows:Â As opposed to Johnson, Giovani Bernard is a proven PPR back and will most likely continue to provide value with his hands. John Brown was on the way to stardom before being diagnosed with a sickle-cell trait that completely derailed his season. It’s not just any other injury – it’s something that will affect his whole life and will require special care and treatment moving forward, however we have a long off-season for him and the team to figure it out, and he could be the top target in 2017. I’m very aware that of the two top backs in Detroit, Riddick is the one who has ‘proven it’ in this league, but Ameer Abdullah simply has so much to offer (and he’s cheaper and younger). He is possibly my top dynasty target right now.
Round Nine
Too highs:Â Allen Hurns and TJ Yeldon were involved in a year of offensive fireworks in Jacksonville in 2015, but I don’t trust either to gain any value moving forward. Zach Ertz is a very average fantasy tight end, and I’d urge owners to see if anyone values him as more than that. Devin Funchess is a big body, but that seems to be it. Don’t hold on for too long.
Too lows:Â With his regression since a strong rookie year, and Ty Montgomery’s breakout, Eddie Lacy will most likely sign somewhere this summer. With that, don’t be surprised at a value bump of a couple of rounds. He could be a great pickup if he ends up in a solid situation. Eric Decker was undervalued when he was at his best, and he’s undervalued now. Dion Lewis was at this ADP before last week’s comeback performance against Denver, but he has explosive upside and could move up very quickly.
Round Ten
Too highs:Â It turns out Tajae Sharpe, the preseason superstar, couldn’t adapt as quickly as we expected into Marcus Mariota’s top target. Phillip Dorsett might have also seen his days of hype pass. Rob Kelley is seeing volume now, but I’m not sure he’ll be the workhorse moving forward. Michael Floyd, as well as being one of the most underwhelming and over-hyped players in the last few years, could be out of the league with a jail sentence. Even if he isn’t, I don’t want any part of it. Sammie Coates isn’t going to be what we wanted him to be.
Too lows: Montgomery could be this summer’s most hyped back if things fall his way. At least in the short term, he’ll have opportunities to bolster his stock with the volume in Green Bay. I discussed Matt Ryan as a player with a potentially short dynasty life at his current value last week, but if this is where the veteran quarterbacks with outstanding surrounding talent are being valued, I might go back on that.
Who are your December ‘too highs’ and ‘too lows’? Let me know what you think and tell me where I’m wrong in the comments section or on Twitter. To sign up for future mock drafts, make sure you’re following Ryan.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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