The Dynasty Quarterback Landscape

Jake Anderson Posted On October 21, 2017

Let’s take a look at the quarterback landscape in 2017 and how it could change for dynasty leagues in 2018. The top quarterbacks in this league have been like your favorite comfort food: it’s reliable, satisfying and never gets old.

Things look to be changing going into the 2018 season. Maybe it’s time to put down some of these comfort food quarterbacks and introduce your pallet to some new eclectic tastes. Let’s take a look at the quarterbacks stack up in total fantasy points through week six.

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Just for a different perspective, let’s take a look at how many years these quarterbacks have played in the NFL in order of their total fantasy points scored through six weeks from left to right.

Through the first six weeks of the NFL season, three of the top six quarterbacks; Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, and Dak Prescott have less than four years of combined NFL experience, while just two of the oldest; Alex Smith and Tom Brady have almost 30 years of combined NFL experience. Change is coming!

I want to take this time to write about the most undervalued quarterback in the league in terms of dynasty. Cam Newton is currently going as QB10, behind a couple of guys that are about to apply for AARP in Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Cam has finished four of his six years in the NFL as a top five quarterback in fantasy and is still only 28 years old. He was coming off from shoulder surgery this off-season and didn’t get any play this preseason. If you take away his first two games this season, in which you have to imagine that he was shaking off some rust; he would be averaging 26.6 ppg (points per game).

There was a considerable amount of chatter this off-season that Carolina was going to limit his designed running plays. Cam came out before the season refuted that claim by saying “that’s like trying to take the roar out of the lion.” Carolina’s coaching staff seems like they’re starting to realize that limiting his running plays significantly hurts their ability to win ball games. Through the first weeks, he leads the league for quarterbacks in rushes (40), second in rushing yards (161) and tied for first in rushing touchdowns (3) and he’s just getting healthy again. People have been overreacting to his Super Bowl let down from last season and I think he should be back to being a top five dynasty quarterback from here on out.

Now we need to take a step back and look in awe at what Deshaun Watson has accomplished so far in his rookie season. He threw for three more TD passes last Sunday, giving him 15 on the season. It’s already a record for a rookie quarterback through his first six games since the NFL/AFL merger. Marcus Mariota set the old mark of 13 in 2015.

He has now become the first rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era with three or more touchdown passes in three consecutive games. He is now on pace for 40 touchdown passes this season. The rookie record for touchdown passes is 26, set by Peyton Manning in 1998 and tied by Russell Wilson in 2012.

Judging by young quarterbacks the likes of Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston have flown up the DLF ADP after showing some flashes of elite potential; you would have to imagine guys like Watson, Prescott and Wentz are due for some positive ADP regression sooner than later. Let’s use DLF’s Dynasty ADP comparison tool to take a look at their meteoric rise as recently of January 2016.

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Mariota is currently QB4 and Winston is QB5 according to DLF October ADP going back to back at picks 68 and 69 overall. This is coming after finishing the 2016 season as QB15 (Mariota) and QB17 (Winston) according to ESPN standard quarterback scoring.

Age bias has a tremendous effect on a player’s value in dynasty leagues. However Tom Brady somehow is still going at QB6 and Drew Brees at QB9. All of this while Prescott, Wentz and Watson are currently listed as QB11, QB12 and QB13 respectively. You would have to imagine that there is going to be a big shift on the quarterback landscape going into the 2018 season and I haven’t even mentioned the other promising young quarterbacks in this league.

Jared Goff seems to have shaken off his 2016 rookie jitters currently standing as the QB15 in total fantasy points in 2017 through six weeks and is attached to a phenomenal offensive mind, in Head Coach Sean McVay. He also suddenly has a very strong supporting cast of weapons with the likes of Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, Sammy Watkins (who he might lose in the offseason), Robert Woods, Tavon Austin and a couple of young tight ends in Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee.

Chicago Bears top draft pick Mitchell Trubisky was handed the keys for his first NFL start in week five. Although he struggled against a stingy Minnesota defense, he did show promise. His ability to get out of the pocket, go through progressions and make accurate throws on the run was good to see. He was my QB1 in this draft class and once the Bears get some passing game weapons around him, will have tons of potential. He reminded me of Derek Carr coming out.

Lastly let’s talk about Kansas City Chiefs first round pick. Patrick Mahomes has a ridiculous skill set. He already has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, ability to make plays with his feet and make any throw on the field while on the move. He has Chiefs fans and dynasty owners alike drooling; waiting to see what he can do once he gets his shot. This in itself lays the problem. Alex Smith seems to be reinvigorated ever since the Chiefs traded up in the 2017 NFL draft to get Mahomes. Smith has never looked better and is making a strong push to keep his job as the Chiefs starter in 2018. Kansas City has an opportunity to kick Smith to the curb this off-season by only taking a 3.6 million dollar cap hit. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.

With the potential retirement of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger looming, we could be looking at a completely different quarterback landscape as soon as next year. I will leave you with my predictions on what dynasty quarterback rankings could look like in 2018.

2018 Top 10 Quarterback Rankings Prediction