Free Agency Winners and Losers: The First Wave
The 2017 NFL league year began less than a week ago and the first wave of free agency, along with a few impact trades has been overwhelming for fantasy players just trying to keep up. Not only can it be a challenge to simply stay on top of the news, but gaining an understanding for the wide-reaching impact of each transaction adds to the madness.
While the first wave was massive, there are still some key free agents available and worthy of tracking. Be sure to follow our news feed for future updates on players like Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Michael Floyd and several running backs like Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Latavius Murray. For now, here are some of the big news of the past week and which players might be affected.
News: Veteran wide receiver Brandon Marshall, previously released by the New York Jets, stayed in the Big Apple after agreeing to a two-year contract with the Giants.
Winners
After dealing with a pitiful quarterback carousel with the Jets last season, Marshall has a chance to end his career on a high note as he plays the clear second fiddle role for the first time in years. Marshall’s dynasty value gets a bit of a boost, but can’t go very high, considering he’s about to enter his age 33 season. Also, this can only help Giants quarterback Eli Manning, who struggled through one of the worst statistical seasons of his career in 2016, finishing as QB22. The Giants have always preferred to make use of three key pass-catchers and they just didn’t have that a year ago. Manning is now a nice veteran arbitrage play to other more expensive players like Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady.
Losers
Considering Manning essentially had Odell Beckham and rookie Sterling Shepard last year and the Giants are still expected to add a tight end through free agency or the NFL Draft, Shepard could be in for a drop in production. He finished last season as the WR36 on 105 targets. Adding Marshall and a likely uptick in tight end usage and Shepard will have a tough road to finishing in that starting fantasy receiver range. With that said, Marshall is clearly a short-term option and this move could open a window to buy Shepard at a slight discount.
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News: The Buffalo Bills opted to retain Tyrod Taylor, agreeing to a restructured contract with their starting quarterback.
Winners
Along with this move, the Bills also brought in a pair of fullbacks, Patrick DeMarco and Mike Tolbert. This should be good news for running back LeSean McCoy, who himself has bene the center of rumors he could be released. That seems like a long-shot at this point, though. The Bills were obviously lukewarm about Taylor and his role for the team, so it is still difficult to feel confident in his long-term future with Buffalo.
Losers
According to many reports, the Cleveland Browns, who granted Robert Griffin III his release, were set to pounce on Taylor if he were to be released. Instead, they are left with uncertainty about their quarterback position. This is clearly a concern for key pass-catchers like Corey Coleman and newly signed veteran Kenny Britt. On a side note, the loss of DiMarco gives even more concern for the Falcons running back duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
News: Veteran wideout Pierre Garcon signed with the San Francisco 49ers, leaving the Washington Redskins.
Winners
In some ways, Garcon was the huge winner here. While big money contracts were expected for wide receivers such as Alshon Jeffery and Terrelle Pryor, it was Garcon who broke the bank, collecting $17 million in guaranteed cash from the 49ers. What we can expect on the field might be a different story, though, considering we’re not quite sure who will be throwing Garcon the ball.
Losers
The Redskins became the first team to lose a pair of 1,000-yard wide receivers via free agency (more on that later) and while quarterback Kirk Cousins did his best to join Garcon in San Francisco, it looks like that won’t be happening. The addition of Garcon, as well as speedsters Aldrick Robinson and Marquise Goodwin likely kills the sleeper hype of Bruce Ellington.
News: The Indianapolis Colts traded tight end Dwayne Allen to the New England Patriots after agreeing with Jack Doyle on a new contract.
Winners
Any player being acquired by the Patriots seemingly gets a boost in dynasty value, deserved or not. In this case, Allen simply has not been effective for the Colts or fantasy players, in large part due to multiple injuries over the years. We did see Martellus Bennett succeed in a similar role last season, so there is hope. Doyle also looks great with this news as he has little competition for playing time. He broke out in 2016, finishing as the TE13 and it is easy to see the path in which he repeats or betters those numbers in 2017.
Losers
This move essentially slammed the door for a Bennett return to New England, so that certainly felt like a negative at the time. Again, more to come on that situation, though.
News: Wide receiver Kenny Stills chose to stay with the Miami Dolphins, signing a four-year deal.
Winners
After a quiet 2015, Stills surprised with a very productive season that resulted in rumors that some team would give him a contract paying him up to $12 million annually. In the end, that didn’t happen and Stills remained in South Beach. This is good news for the Dolphins in general, and specifically quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is recovering from a torn ACL.
Losers
2016 was supposed to be the breakout season for DeVante Parker. That never happened, partially due to the production of Stills, who nearly matched Parker in targets, receptions and yardage and more than doubled his touchdown production. This also does not bode well for Leonte Carroo, who rarely got on the field during his rookie season. I still believe in a Parker breakout, but Carroo could be a bust.
News: Veteran pass-catching back Danny Woodhead agreed to terms with the Baltimore Ravens.
Winners
This was a surprise move for many reasons. Coming off a torn ACL, many expected Woodhead to simply remain with the Chargers and play behind Melvin Gordon. Also, Woodhead is essentially the only running back who has drawn much interest in the early going of free agency. This will be good news for quarterback Joe Flacco, who again should throw the ball all over the field. While this leaves a hole on the Chargers depth chart behind Gordon, it will give someone, maybe Rex Burkhead for example, the chance to claim that spot for the newest team in Los Angeles.
Losers
Again, this move was a surprise after the recent coach speak discussing how special of a player Ravens running back Kenneth Dixon could be. The Ravens also have Terrance West and even Javorius Allen. Of course, we later learned of the news Dixon had been suspended for four games due to a violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Dixon is now a clear trade target for dynasty owners if there is any loss of value due to this news.
News: Big-play widout DeSean Jackson left the Redskins, signing a three-year pact with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Winners
This is just the type of move that Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston needed. During his short career, he’s formed a good relationship with Mike Evans and even tight end Cameron Brate, but he has lacked the big play, over the top receiver that Jackson can be. Winston has already been treated like a top five quarterback by dynasty owners and with Jackson, Brate and Evans, he might actually live up to those expectations.
Losers
As I mentioned with Garcon, the Redskins became the first team to lose multiple 1,000-yard receivers through free agency, which won’t help Kirk Cousins’ march towards a long-term contract. Adam Humphries actually developed into an end of bench dynasty flier last season, but that is unlikely to continue with Jackson in town.
News: Coming off a career year, veteran receiver Kenny Britt signed a four-year contract with the Cleveland Browns.
Winners
To be honest, I’m not sure this move helps anyone. While Britt proved he could put up numbers in one of the worst offenses in the league, he now lands in an equally bad spot. In fact, at least the Rams know who their quarterback is, something the Browns can’t claim. The move opens up some opportunity among the Rams young wideouts, including Pharoh Cooper and Mike Thomas among others, but I have little confidence they will make the most of it. A veteran like Britt should help the future quarterback of the Browns and considering he is unlikely to see the same number of targets as his predecessor, Pryor, Corey Coleman could play a larger role for the team.
Losers
After enjoying his first career 1,000-yard season, Britt was becoming a trendy name among dynasty owners as a player to buy at a relative cheap price and then plug into your starting lineup for the 2017 season. That may not be the ideal plan after he chose Cleveland. Britt, like many of the free agent wideouts, found the market just wasn’t there for him.
News: The Chicago Bears released veteran quarterback Jay Cutler and signed former Buccaneers backup Mike Glennon to a three-year, $45 million contract.
Winners
These are moves that were widely expected entering the free agency period. Cutler had clearly burned too many bridges in Chicago and it was time for him to go, while that left a huge hole in the lineup. While Cutler has been the butt of many jokes, he does offer some short-term upside at a very low cost. He will land somewhere, potentially with the Jets, and could be an option for owners in 2QB leagues.
Losers
The Bears acted quickly to grab Glennon away from the Bucs, but it is hard to be excited about this move. Maybe we are just remembering the Texans move a year ago, signing quarterback Brock Osweiler to a huge contract to be their starter, a move that reminds me of this one. The Bears have also added wide receiver Kendall Wright and Markus Wheaton and 2016 looks like a lost year for this rebuilding team.
News: The Houston Texans traded former starting quarterback Brock Osweiler to the Cleveland Browns.
Winners
The clear winner here is DeAndre Hopkins, who was brought down by the inept play from Osweiler in 2016. I am not sure Hopkins ever reaches the value he saw following the 2015 season, but he should be able to bounce back statistically with a new quarterback, potentially current Cowboys backup Tony Romo. In fact, the entire Texans offense should benefit from this move.
Losers
The Browns are not ready to compete in 2017 and had a huge amount of money to spend, so they clearly viewed this move as paying for an additional second round draft pick. Soon after the trade, reports spread that the Browns could release or trade Osweiler. He has clearly fallen far and fast and he is not worthy of a roster spot in typical dynasty leagues.
News: Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery left the Bears for the Philadelphia Eagles, signing a one-year, $14 million contract.
Winners
As I mentioned earlier, several wide receivers expected to cash in through free agency and it just didn’t happen. Jeffery settled for a one-year deal in an effort to prove he is worthy of a long-term deal next off-season. This makes Jeffery dynasty owners the big winners as there should no longer be a concern that the former Bear would take it easy following a huge contract. Also, this clearly is a benefit to Carson Wentz as the Eagles front office made it a priority to give their young signal caller some weapons. The team also signed veteran deep threat Torrey Smith, formerly of the 49ers.
Losers
Some viewed this as a negative for Jordan Matthews, but I think he should be fine. He’ll get to stick to the slot where he has played the best and won’t be the team’s top threat. He could do very well against second or third cornerbacks. On the other hand, it is a clear message to young, underperforming receivers Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor. These two have gone from young players with high upside to having almost no dynasty value. Don’t expect much of anything in 2017, but I still hold out hope DGB can turn into something in the long run.
News: Wide receiver Terrelle Pryor chose to leave Cleveland and sign a one-year deal with the Washington Redskins.
Winners
After losing both Garcon and Jackson, as previously mentioned, the Redskins quarterback Cousins needed something to go his way and stealing Pryor away for just $8 million looks like a great fit. Cousins will now have Pryor, Josh Doctson and Jamison Crowder, along with tight end Jordan Reed to throw the ball to and all four could see an uptick in their production, assuming Doctson and Reed can stay on the field.
Losers
The Browns came out of this looking bad, once again. At one point during the season, the Cleveland front office was reportedly shopping any player except Pryor and then they let him walk for a measly contract. It makes little sense and while I really like Britt, Pryor was a hometown guy whom the team had converted from quarterback. They should’ve found a way to keep him in town.
News: Tight end Martellus Bennett signed a three-year contract with the Green Bay Packers.
Winners
I mentioned earlier how it briefly looked like Bennett would be a free agency loser, but that quickly changed when he inked with the Packers. Bennett enjoyed a bounce back season with the Patriots last year and could easily match or exceed that production alongside Aaron Rodgers in 2017. It has been widely discussed how much success Rodgers enjoyed when athletic tight end Jared Cook was in the Packers and he could match that with Bennett as a key contributor.
Losers
This was just part of a tight end chain reaction. Doyle gets a contract extension, Allen is dealt to the Patriots, leaving Bennett out of New England. When talks between the Packers and Cook stalled, Bennett takes advantage. Therefore, the key loser in this move is Cook, who finally met the lofty expectations always placed upon him by fantasy players, despite dealing with some injuries in 2016. Now, Cook will have to find a new team and there are few options where he could maintain his dynasty value.
News: The Saints traded wide receiver Brandin Cooks to the New England Patriots, along with a fourth-round draft pick for the Pats first round pick and a third-round selection.
Winners
This one was a long time coming, but finally happened late on Friday. While it may qualify as the biggest news of the week, I think it has little impact on Cooks’ dynasty value. He remains a solid second round dynasty startup pick and will continue to play with one of the game’s top quarterbacks, as he had done in New Orleans. The teammates he leaves behind should certainly gain some value though, namely Willie Snead and newly signed deep threat Ted Ginn. I’ve seen others peg Michael Thomas as a big winner, but I don’t see it. He had already established himself as a key part of this offense and fantasy starter, but Brees will continue to spread the ball around as he has always done. I also hesitate to call Patriots quarterback Tom Brady a winner from this move. It certainly won’t hurt, but he wasn’t exactly desperate for players to throw the ball to, either.
Losers
From a NFL perspective, the Saints seem like the losers here. After dealing away Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills a couple years ago, they have yet to make the playoffs and rather than engaging on contract extension talks, they opt to ship Cooks out of town. Their depth will likely absorb his loss, but this seems like a front office that can’t get out of its own way. Turning to the Patriots, the addition of Cooks definitely puts a hurting on what was surging dynasty value for Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan and it seems to signal the end is near for Danny Amendola (soon) and even Julian Edelman.
Keep it here for all the news as it unfolds.
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