The Player or the Pick?
After focusing on quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, it is time for the tight end position to get the Player or the Pick? treatment. Again, I chose a trio of players who have surprised us with their high level of play, or at least is meeting lofty expectations, in one case.
Let’s begin at the top…
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Which would you prefer in a dynasty league? #playerorthepick .
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 8, 2016
When fully healthy, Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski has weekly fantasy finishes of TE7, TE1, TE3 and TE4 this season. Of course, Gronk missed the first three games before making his debut in week four, playing limited snaps. The missed time has not affected Gronkowski’s value at all, as it shouldn’t.
Gronkowski is still considered the top dynasty tight end by a wide margin. He’s in his own tier and more often compared to the top wide receivers rather than other players at his own position.
Even though he has been playing at a very high level, as we have seen before, I wondered if some dynasty owners might be ready to cash in on the future Hall of Famer in hopes of landing a top rookie receiver or running back. I could not have been more wrong and I was happy to see dynasty owners not taking “rookie fever” too far. Gronkowski takes this poll in a landslide, winning 72% of the vote, which is one of the widest margins since this series began.
Clearly, if you are looking to buy a high-end player like Gronkowski, you’ll need more than just a high pick. In reality, it would take multiple high picks or possibly a second tier tight end like Tyler Eifert or Jordan Reed, along with a top rookie pick, at least.
Our next poll was a surprise to me.
Which would you prefer in a dynasty league? #playerorthepick
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 8, 2016
After suffering a serious season-ending injury late in the 2015 season, many dynasty owners, myself included, gave up on Jimmy Graham. Of course, even before the injury took him off the field, he was struggling to make an impact in his first season with the Seattle Seahawks. Graham is proving many people wrong and looks as good as ever, dominating and becoming the favorite target of quarterback Russell Wilson.
Graham has finished as a top ten fantasy scorer four times already this season and is the TE2 on the season, behind only Greg Olsen. Turning 30 years old on Thanksgiving Day, it is fair to somewhat discount Graham due to his age, but most dynasty owners value Olsen in the second tier of dynasty tight ends and he’s already 31 years old, so age should not be an excuse to move Graham way up our rankings now that he has proven to be healthy.
Personally, I don’t value many tight ends at all as on par with first round rookie picks, so I thought comparing Graham to a high second round pick would be a fair matchup, but Graham was the favorite rather easily, being picked by 60% of the respondents. This tells me if you’re interested in buying or selling Graham, the going rate is a late first rounder.
Which would you prefer in a dynasty league? #playerorthepick .
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 8, 2016
Like Graham, another west coast tight end who has been a pleasant surprise is Chargers rookie Hunter Henry. The narrative since Gronkowski, Graham and Aaron Hernandez were rookies has been to avoid any rookies at the position since they often take years to develop and become fantasy relevant. Henry is proving that wrong as he has been very useful to fantasy owners just half a season into his career.
Earlier in the season, veteran Antonio Gates was dealing with an injury and missed some time. Henry stepped up and the Chargers didn’t miss a beat. In games Gates missed, Henry was the TE12 and TE5 for the week. He also has two other top five weekly performances even with Gates back in action. Henry missed some time himself recently after suffering a concussion, but that is not affecting his long-term value.
Also like Graham, I pegged Henry’s potential value at an early second round pick and like Graham, I was wrong. The margin of victory was even wider for the rookie, who was chosen by 66% of the people. This means Henry could also cost a late first round rookie pick, which likely put him in the second or third tier of all dynasty tight ends along with players like Travis Kelce, Eric Ebron and the previously mentioned Graham.
At this expected cost, Henry is a player I’m willing to wait on and let someone else roster for now. Since Gates has been back and healthy, Henry has taken a backseat, as would be expected. Henry’s production could certainly continue its downward trend, making him more cost effective in the off-season.
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