The Player or the Pick?
In last week’s edition of The Player or the Pick? I covered a quartet of quarterbacks who have seen their value change through the first half of the NFL season. Following week seven, it’s the running backs turn to get the matchup against some highly valued rookie draft picks.
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Which would you want in a dynasty league?
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 25, 2016
One of the top stories of the season is how second-year back Melvin Gordon has taken over the Chargers backfield following the season-ending injury to veteran Danny Woodhead. Gordon was considered a massive disappointment following his rookie season and one reason why was his lack of touchdowns. Specifically, he failed to find the end zone even once despite 217 touches. Gordon has certainly changed his trajectory this year as he is not only scoring, but leading the league with ten touchdowns.
Along with his sudden scoring prowess, Gordon also has age on his side as he is only 23 years old and looking like a key cog in one of the leagues best offenses over the past few seasons. It would be a surprise if Woodhead is back with the team in 2017 and while San Diego will bring in some help for Gordon, this is clearly his backfield to dominate. The concern is the lack of production other than scoring plays. While Gordon leads league in touchdowns and is the RB3 entering week eight, he’s only twelfth in rushing yardage. That’s nothing to be ashamed of, but ideally those ranks match up a bit better.
This poll matched up Gordon and a mid-first round rookie pick in the upcoming dynasty rookie drafts. There is a lot of time for things to be shaken up, but a pick in that range could bring in Juju Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis or Christian McCaffrey. I’m not even sure which side I’d prefer there when assigning names to the picks, which makes the near 50/50 split understandable.
The next poll includes the league’s hottest running back.
Which do you value more in dynasty? #playerorthepick
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 25, 2016
As you all know by now, Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi entered his week eight bye week coming off back-to-back 200+ yard rushing performances. These performances come as a result of Ajayi’s massive increased workload. After carrying the ball 49 times in nine games last season and 31 times in the season’s first five weeks, Ajayi handled 25 and 28 carries respectively over the past two games. No player is more in need of a rest week.
When Ajayi returns to the field, he’ll do so as the unquestioned starter for Miami following the surprise retirement of Arian Foster, who began the season as the team’s starter before an injury sidelined him and eventually pushed him out the door. This is a huge leap for Ajayi, who seemingly has not had the trust of the coaching staff for much of the season. Not only did they feel the need to bring in Foster in the first place, but they made Ajayi a healthy scratch in week one. When Foster went down, Miami used a disastrous four-man backfield attack. That’s all in the past now though as Ajayi is the clear survivor of this poor start to Miami’s season.
When Ajayi entered the league last year, the knock on him was his high risk for a knee injury and he missed the first half of his rookie season with a pair of injuries. I think it is that same concern that has dynasty owners being very careful when it comes to how they value the former Boise State star. Since his two big games, I’ve seen Ajayi traded for a future first round pick, but have also seen him sold for just a second rounder. It seems that some dynasty players want to get out while they can. I can understand that mindset. Just like last off-season, we know Miami will bring in someone to compete with Ajayi heading into the 2017 season, which puts his dynasty value at further risk.
The final poll this week, unlike the first two, is a buy low attempt for one of the top talents in the league.
Which do you want in a dynasty league? #playerorthepick
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 25, 2016
The struggles of Rams running back Todd Gurley this season are well documented. The Rams offense has been horrendous this season and with Case Keenum taking snaps under center, defenders have had an easy choice to focus on stopping Gurley. Through seven games, Gurley’s high mark for the year is 85 rushing yards in week three, which was the only time this season he has eclipsed 60 yards on the ground. The team is reportedly considering a change at quarterback, potentially moving to rookie Jared Goff, but it remains to be seen if that would help the running game.
With Gurley a questionable weekly starter, leaving fantasy players completely frustrated, just how low has his dynasty stock dropped? With a trio of big name runners expected to enter the league in 2017, maybe Gurley could be bought for a single high draft pick. That was my hypothesis, at least, but it proved to be very wrong as the matchup of Gurley versus a high 2017 rookie pick was the most lopsided of the week. A whopping 65% of respondents preferred the known commodity of Gurley over the unknown of Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook or any other player at the top of the upcoming rookie class.
I totally understand this and agree. While it is tempting to hit the reset button at the running back position, Gurley entered the league as one of the top prospects in years and for good reason. He was dominant during his rookie season last year, despite missing the beginning of the season as he recovered from an injury that ended his college career. I am still confident he can overcome the struggling offense. While Gurley is only the RB18 on the season entering week eight, he has been a top 24 fantasy scorer the past five games, making him a reliable RB2 at the very least.
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