The Player or the Pick?

Ryan McDowell Posted On October 21, 2016

In this week’s edition of The Player or the Pick? I chose to focus on the quarterback position. Considering the current all-time low of quarterbacks in general, it can be very difficult to assess their value or even make a trade centered around a signal caller at all.

This week I upped the number of trade polls to four as I found quiet a few quarterbacks I wanted to test the market on, when it comes to the current dynasty value. Let’s begin with the one player I think is losing value through the first six weeks of the season.

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Which would you prefer in a dynasty league? #playerorthepick

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 18, 2016

We have a first in the short life of this new series, a 50/50 split. It was a dead even poll between Giovani Bernard and a first round pick that first inspired this series, so I am glad to see an even split even after over 1,000 votes.

The struggles of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been one of the biggest stories of the season so far. Through five games, Rodgers had only top top 12 fantasy performances and is near the bottom of the NFL in many statistical categories. With wide receiver Jordy Nelson back on the field after missing the entire 2015 season, the expectation was that Rodgers and the entirety of the Green Bay offense would be back to normal, but it appears there is a new normal for the Packers offense. Running back Eddie Lacy is done for the season, Nelson and his running mate, Randall Cobb have flashed, but failed to live up to expectations with just a pair of top 24 games each through the first five weeks. With the running game not likely to improve, it is hard to see things changing for this offense anytime soon.

Let’s consider the other side of this imaginary deal for a moment. There is much left to be determined between now and 2017 rookie drafts, but considering the quality of the upcoming rookie class, even a late first round pick should bring a nice prospect in return, including the owner’s choice of any rookie quarterback, most likely. I am of the mindset that there are very few, if any, quarterbacks I would be willing to give a first round pick for. The reason has less to do with Rodgers, or Cam Newton or Andrew Luck and more to do with the great price disparity between these players and some of their counterparts at the position. For example, why trade a first round pick for Rodgers when I can give up a second rounder for Tyrod Taylor or Philip Rivers, both of who have outscored Rodgers so far this season, though Rodgers has already had his bye week. I consider Rodgers a nice buy low player right now, I just don’t think giving up a future first round pick is low enough. Instead, I’d find a player on my roster who may be also worthy of a first round pick that I may be souring on. A very recent example from one league I commission was an even up trade of Rodgers for Breshad Perriman.

In the next poll, I also pitted a quarterback with a late first round pick, but got strikingly different results.

Which would you want in a dynasty league? #playerorthepick

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 18, 2016

Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota began the season slowly throwing for under 300 yards in each of his first four games, averaging just one score per game and sporting a QB15 week as his best performance through the season opening month. Over the past two weeks though, the light has come on for Mariota, as he has totaled seven touchdowns through two weeks and has finished as QB1 and QB4 respectively. A lot of that might have to do with playing Miami and Cleveland in those two games, but his recent play is surely a good sign for his dynasty owners.

With all of this in mind, I was certain Mariota’s value was on the rise. When choosing the potential pick range to match up with Mariota, any second round pick felt like an easy choice on the side of the player, so I opted for a late first rounder, just as I had done with Rodgers before him. The results were not even close as 74% of the respondents prefer the first round rookie pick over the up and coming quarterback.

My preference would also be the first round pick, but only for the reasons I previously discussed, not because of any concern with Mariota. The overwhelming results of this poll make me think I should shop some second round picks for the Titans quarterback.

This next poll has to be one of the first polls I’ve done that is almost completely team dependent.

Which would you prefer for a dynasty league? #playerorthepick

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 18, 2016

In just two weeks back on the field following his four-game suspension, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has finished as the QB2 and QB5. The 39 year-old is showing no signs of slowing down and the addition of tight end Martellus Bennett and wide receiver Chris Hogan will only give the future Hall of Famer more weapons. The same will be true when running back Dion Lewis gets back on the field. The production from Brady should be no surprise. His past five seasons have included ranks of QB2, QB9, QB14, QB3 and QB4. It hurts to remember when I was trading away a 35 year-old Brady because he was “nearing the end.”

I am trying not to predict when Brady might call it a career, but as long as he is on the field, he will be a valuable fantasy asset. That said, if you are not contending, Brady is simply not a player you want on your roster. First, by the time you are ready for a playoff run, he could be retired. Also, having a stud like Brady will result in you winning a couple of games you might not really want to win. So, if you have Brady and don’t see yourself contending soon, ship him off for a second round pick, as the poll shows you should be able to. If you are contending and in need of help at quarterback, potentially after losing Ben Roethlisberger or being frustrated by Rodgers, flip a pick for Brady and make a title push.

The final poll involves another player who has seen his dynasty value skyrocket this season, but one who could soon be in for a drop.

Which do you want in a dynasty league? #playerorthepick

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 18, 2016

As I said, Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott is one of the league’s most surprising players. Not only does he have Dallas off to a good start, he’s also a QB1 through six weeks, averaging around 18 fantasy points per game. Outside of a Week One clunker in which he only completed 55% of his passes and threw for 227 yards and no scores, Prescott has been the model of consistency, scoring between 17 and 23 fantasy points each week, all while committing just one interception on the season. Prescott has gone from an afterthought during the draft process to a weekly fantasy starter over a period of a couple of months.

It’s not all good news for Prescott though, which makes his dynasty value somewhat volatile. He only has his job because of a back injury suffered by veteran Tony Romo in the pre-season. Now, Romo is reportedly nearing a return and the Cowboys have a difficult decision to face…stick with the rookie who has played so well early in the season or return to their gutsy but fragile leader, Romo? Regardless of the decision, and I think it’s an easy call to stick with Dak, I would be buying Prescott at this price range and the majority seem to agree with me, preferring the Dallas rookie over a mid-second round pick in 2017.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.