Statterbrained

Brian Malone Posted On May 4, 2016

This is the first article in the “Statterbrained” series, which covers whatever number-related thoughts are bouncing around in my head.

Freak for Zeke

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Not only is Ezekiel Elliott the highest-drafted (redraft) rookie running back in the last decade, it’s not even close. His redraft ADP in drafts since May 1 is 14, making him the fourth running back off the board. Ryan Mathews in 2010 was the next earliest, going off the board at pick 19 as the tenth running back drafted.

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Dynasty owners are just as excited. Even those who don’t have Elliott (or the rookie 1.01 to draft him) value him higher than other young, high-producing players:

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I—like everyone else apparently—think Elliott is going to be a very good NFL and fantasy running back. And I have him on one or two teams. But I probably won’t be acquiring him anywhere else at these prices.

Receiver Youth Movement

We all intuitively know there’s a youth movement afoot among NFL receivers. The chart below shows just how strong that youth movement is. I calculated the average age of the top-20 targeted wide receivers and tight ends, weighted by the number of targets each player saw. By this metric, the last three seasons rank first, second, and fourth youngest since 1992.

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The question for dynasty owners is whether this is a new trend — making 28 is the new 30 — or if the recent rookie classes are just exceptional. My money is on new trend. Receivers are getting more opportunities earlier in their careers, and that will necessarily push some old guys out the door sooner. Obviously, the 2014 class was exceptional, but the 2011 and 2013 numbers show those rookies are not driving this trend.

Seahawks’ pass-happy second half?

It’s tempting to look at Seattle’s second half and conclude they’re moving to a more pass-heavy approach. Not so.

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In reality, Russell Wilson was insanely efficient in the second half of 2015, but the offensive approach did not shift (except that Wilson ran the ball less). Maybe the Seahawks will lean more pass-heavy in 2016, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Wilson has always been efficient, and an eight-game hot streak shouldn’t change the team’s game plan.

If a rookie running back is in on third down, he should be on your roster.

Sure, some running backs score more points on the ground and others score more through the air, but points are points, right? Well …

I studied every rookie running back season from 2000 to 2014. And the backs who got a higher percentage of their opportunities on third-and-two (or fourth-and-two) or longer outperformed their peers the following season:

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This should hearten dynasty owners with Duke Johnson and David Johnson on their rosters, as those two saw more than 11% of their opportunities on third and fourth downs with more than two yards to go.

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It’s worth noting that second-year backs who get most of their work on third down don’t see the same benefit as rookies.

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Maybe that means the rookie improvement is just noise. But the more interesting explanation is that rookie third-down backs are more likely to turn into full-time backs, while second-year third-down backs are likely to keep that role.

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