Dynasty Capsule: Buffalo Bills

Brian Malone Posted On January 21, 2019

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Josh Allen

Allen proved to be a bargain in 2018 superflex rookie drafts. As a passer, he didn’t exceed his low expectations. His completion rate (53 percent) was lowest among passers with at least 200 attempts, while his yards per attempt (6.5) and interception rate (3.8 percent) were each second-worst (behind Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick, respectively).

But Allen did more damage on the ground than most dynasty owners expected. He was no Lamar Jackson … but he was close. Looking only at each quarterback’s starting performances, the two were almost neck-and-neck: word image 20

Allen’s January DLF (1QB) ADP was 146, making him the 15th quarterback drafted. Compared to Jackson (ADP 102, QB9), that’s a bargain. Still, I’m probably avoiding both at current prices — which are only likely to rise this off-season.

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Matt Barkley

At age 28, Barkley is solidly in the “journeyman” category of backup quarterbacks. He has no long-term value. Even if Allen misses time, I’m not interested in him as anything more than a low-upside QB3. Buffalo’s offense isn’t equipped for high passing numbers, and Barkley adds nothing on the ground.

Running Back

LeSean McCoy

McCoy has had an outstanding career. The overwhelming odds are against him, though. Among running backs drafted since 1985, here are the ones who posted an RB25-RB60 season (PPR per-game rank, minimum eight games) at age 30 after at least one prior top-six season:

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That’s not a pretty picture. McCoy’s best bet is to get cut by Buffalo and sign a cheap contract with a dynamic offense. But knowing McCoy, he’d likely sign for the most money he can get from a team like the Jets — and I can’t say I blame him.

Chris Ivory

I began playing dynasty in 2010 when Ivory led the Saints with 716 rushing yards as an undrafted rookie. Ivory could’ve been a LeGarrette Blount-like RB2 for fantasy owners, but New Orleans spent a first-round pick on Mark Ingram in 2011, and Ivory never cracked the top 100 in dynasty ADP (even though he did top 1,000 rushing yards for the Jets in 2015). Now, he’s a roster clogger. Cut him.

Keith Ford

Ford usurped McCoy as the starter in week 16. Then he was a healthy inactive in week 17. He’s not a special athlete, though his broad (126”) and vertical jump (39”) numbers are impressive. (Of course, he is a special athlete — just not more special than the typical NFL running back.) I’d rather roster Ford than Ivory, but that’s a low bar. Consider grabbing him in leagues with at least 300 offensive players rostered.

Wide Receiver

Zay Jones

Jones improved his catch rate from 36.5 percent to 54.9 percent, which still sounds awful until you remember that he was catching passes from Josh Allen. It’s tough to get too excited about a wide receiver in this offense, but Jones was a decent flex option in 2018 (WR47 in PPR points per game), and he turns 24 in March. He’s a thirteenth round startup pick (WR63) based on January’s ADP. I’m fine with acquiring him at that price.

Robert Foster

Foster, meanwhile, is basically free. Though 2018 was his rookie season, he’s nearly a year older than Jones and turns 25 in May. He never produced in four seasons at Alabama, despite playing at an older age. But he was a revelation in December, averaging 6.3 targets for 71 yards over the team’s final four games — and adding a pair of touchdowns for good measure. I’d add him in all but the shallowest formats, but I’d also trade him for a third-round rookie pick if you can get one.

Isaiah McKenzie

Like Foster, McKenzie saw a major target bump in December. Unlike Foster, McKenzie didn’t do much with his extra opportunity. He’s probably on the roster bubble this off-season, and it’d be better for his dynasty prospects. Those prospects are slim no matter what. McKenzie is fast; he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.42 seconds at the combine. But he’s not fast enough to be a real weapon at his listed weight of 173 pounds.

Tight End

Charles Clay

Clay was a perennial low-end TE1 or high-end TE2 before Josh Allen came to town. The Bills could cut him and save $4.5 million against the cap in 2018 (or more if they designate him a post-June 1 release). So there’s some hope he returns to those numbers for a new team, and he turns 30 in February even though it feels like he’s been in the league forever. Don’t drop him unless you have to.

Jason Croom

If Clay leaves town, Croom would inherit those coveted three-to-five targets per game. Even without Clay, you wouldn’t want to start Croom in fantasy except the craziest tight end premium leagues.