Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
As of this writing, Brian Flores is penciled in as Miami’s next head coach. Flores has spent his entire professional career with the New England Patriots, starting as a scouting assistant right out of Boston College. He’ll have more influence on the Dolphins defense, and the offensive coordinator is yet unknown.
Tannehill turns 31 in July, and there’s no reason to think the Dolphins view him as the future of their franchise. They can save $13 million by cutting him this off-season, but he’s worth more than that. More likely, Miami drafts a quarterback in 2019 with the plan to hand over the reins in 2020. Regardless, Tannehill probably remains a top-32 NFL quarterback, so he’ll have at least an opportunity to compete for a starting role wherever he lands. He remains a low-end QB2 worth rostering only in superflex leagues.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Falk put up video game numbers playing under Mike Leach at Washington State. Then the Titans took him in the sixth round of the 2018 NFL Draft before cutting him a few months later. He’s a worthwhile flier in deep superflex leagues.
Drake’s career arc gives me flashbacks to early career Lamar Miller: explosive, but underused. Except Miller was way more productive (and a bit younger). Here are Miller’s first three seasons:
And here are Drake’s:
Frank Gore is a free agent, but I doubt that means a greater workload for Drake. Look for Miami to bring in some younger competition.
Drake’s January ADP is 78 overall, which means you might be able to fetch a late 2019 first-round rookie pick (or a 2020 first) for him. That’s an easy cash out opportunity for me.
Ballage illustrates why I love acquiring rookies in dynasty. He was #notgood in 2018, barely getting on the field through the first fourteen weeks and doing little with his minimal opportunity. Then, in week 15, he breaks a 75-yard run, and he’s almost back to pre-2018 prices:
If you were a truther before the season, feel free to hold Ballage. Maybe the next Dolphins coaching regime will use him as the giant space back that he is. But if you were holding Ballage as a speculative play, it’s time to cut your losses, swap him for a late third-round rookie pick, and try again.
In the battle between Kenny Stills truthers and DeVante Parker truthers, the Stills truthers won… by default. Stills averaged a mere 9.0 points per game in PPR formats, less than fantasy stars like Nelson Agholor, Jordy Nelson, and Cole Beasley. It wasn’t on Stills, though. Miami passed only 455 times in 2018, down from 602 attempts in 2017. With a new coaching staff, I’ll project something closer to the league average in 2019.
I expect you’ll be able to acquire Stills for a mid-second-round 2019 rookie pick this off-season. Unless and until the Dolphins bring in major competition at wide receiver — either a first-round rookie or a splash free agent signing, I’m fine with that price.
Parker almost certainly isn’t a Dolphin in 2019, but we have to put him somewhere. He turned only 26 in January, but he’s been so ineffective for so long, dynasty owners have (appropriately) relegated him to “flier” status. Maybe you can get him for a third-round rookie pick with hopes of flipping him for a second if he lands in a strong situation like Indianapolis. Otherwise, I’m out.
Wilson signed a three-year, $24 million contract with the Dolphins before the 2018 season. That’s Ryan Grant money, except the Dolphins didn’t renege. Wilson flashed, too, before missing the second half of the season with a hip injury. He averaged 13.9 PPR points over seven games, and his 55 receiving yards per game were better than any season Kenny Stills has had in Miami. Get him as a throw-in on every deal you can.
Grant turns 27 in September, and he’s best suited as a returner. Cut bait in leagues that don’t score return yards.
Non-zero chance he suits up for the Patriots at some point in 2019.
As a prospect, Gesicki was more athlete than football player, more receiver than tight end. We should have expected a quiet season from him. But it would’ve been nice to get just one game — even just one play — for a reminder of what Gesicki could be. Instead, we got bupkis, and that’s about what you’ll have to pay to acquire Gesicki in a trade. I expect I’ll have more than my fair share by the time training camps begin.
O’Leary signed a one-year extension to remain with the Dolphins through 2019. He’s not a threat to Gesicki, and, if anything, his signing signals the team’s plan to rely more heavily on Gesicki going forward.