2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Bryan Edwards, WR from South Carolina. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
The 2020 rookie class has long been touted as exceptional. The wide receiver group features top tier talent and some appealing later options. Bryan Edwards is squarely in the group of later-round receivers possessing attractive upside. His mix of production and athleticism checks boxes in several categories and suggests he can find success in the NFL.
THE STATS
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Edwards is the poster child for receiver breakout age among the dynasty analytics camp. His 100th percentile production as a 17-year-old freshman is elite. It was later revealed that Edwards played that season with various injuries, a theme which has unfortunately continued throughout his career.
Regardless, the statistics support Edwards as a top prospect. His share of receiving yards through four years is in the top five percent of historical NFL wide receiver prospects, and he did much of it splitting targets with 2019 second-round NFL draft pick Deebo Samuel.
THE FILM
The film also supports Edwards’ potential as a legitimate NFL wide receiver. His career is full of acrobatic catches – especially impressive given his size – but he shows a complete skill set in addition to the occasional highlight-worthy grab.
https://youtu.be/Ch-OYGP9Nbs
Additional videos can be found on Edwards’ DLF videos player page.
For his size, he demonstrates good short-area quickness and speed. He can separate but can also win contested situations. His hands are elite, as is his body control at his size.
MEASURABLES
Unfortunately, Edwards did not participate in the NFL Scouting Combine after breaking his foot in February, so his Mock Draftable athletic profile is incomplete. Dynasty owners and NFL teams will have to act without those data points.
Relying on limited information of his height, weight, arm length, and hand size, his player comparisons include Corey Davis, Chris Hannon, PK Sam, and Hank Baskett. It’s an underwhelming peer group but we must keep it in the context of limited inputs. It directs us to more closely weigh his film, production metrics and eventual draft capital.
Irrespective of the comps, we see Edwards possesses above-average height and weight among wide receivers.
DYNASTY VALUE
According to DLF’s March 2020 Rookie ADP, Edwards currently sits as the rookie 2.05 with an ADP of 17. If you look at February startup ADP, he sits at WR41 with an ADP of 96. This is around wide receivers Mecole Hardman, Curtis Samuel, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard.
He also sits at 17 in the DLF staff rookie rankings between fellow receivers Brandon Aiyuk and KJ Hamler and implying a mid-second round rookie pick value.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer, whose algorithm determines values based on actual MFL trades, ADP data, and DLF rankings, places Edwards’ value around the rookie 2.12 pick, suggesting that actual MFL trades are dragging down his value relative to the Trade Analyzer’s other inputs. If you are a believer in Edwards this suggests an attractive buying opportunity relative to his value in rankings and ADP.
CONCLUSION
Bryan Edwards has been a devy darling ever since his 2016 freshman breakout season. His devy value has already experienced extreme volatility since that point, mostly due to the injuries through which he has struggled. And while injury concerns are legitimate, to me the biggest red flag for Edwards was his decision to stay in school for his senior year. Numerous studies have pointed to a higher rate of success for early entrants to the NFL Draft compared to those receivers who fulfill their college eligibility.
And while Edwards had to miss the NFL Combine, he was not expected to put up elite athleticism measurables, so it may not dramatically harm his draft stock. The bigger concern is yet another line item on his already lengthy injury report.
I worry Edwards may be the latest instance of the devy and dynasty communities overvaluing a player relative to the NFL. Draft capital will go a long way in determining Edwards’ ultimate value in rookie drafts.
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