20/20: Jerry Jeudy

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2020 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player Name – Jerry Jeudy

2.) College – Alabama

3.) Height/Weight – 6’2″, 192 pounds

4.) Birthdate – 4/24/1999 (20 years old)

5.) Class – Junior

6.) Basic college stats – Jeudy’s raw statistics look extremely impressive, as he was very productive once Calvin Ridley matriculated to the NFL and Tua Tagovailoa took over under center for good in 2018.

His terrific 2018 season ended with him winning the Biletnikoff Award as the best receiver in college football as a true sophomore. He was again strong in 2019, although it was a bit of a step back from his outstanding sophomore campaign despite being one of the best statistical seasons in the country. He was actually outpaced in both yards and touchdowns by his teammate Devonta Smith in 2019.

Courtesy of sports-reference.com.

7.) NFL Draft round projection – Round one. Based on early pre-Combine mock drafts, Jeudy is inside the top ten players in the NFL Draft many times, but I think it’s possible – and more likely – that he lands in the 10-20 range. Jeudy is close to a lock for first round draft capital, and is a locked-in first round dynasty rookie pick as a result. He has been frequently linked to the Las Vegas Raiders.

8.) Current NFL comparison – Calvin Ridley. This comparison goes beyond the jersey they shared in college. Ridley and Jeudy are similar athletes and both are outstanding route runners.

Ridley was one of the best receiver prospects in the 2018 class. Assuming Jeudy is a first-round NFL draft pick (as is expected), they will have that in common as well. I don’t view Jeudy as a dominant alpha receiver yet, so I think he would be best suited to serve as a complementary option for the first year or two of his career before blossoming into a team’s number one target after that, and I view Ridley and his current career trajectory much in the same vein.

9.) Best possible destination – Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders. He would fit well on any team, and most teams would greatly benefit from a quick-twitch separator at all levels of the field. The Colts interest me because they haven’t had much talent available when TY Hilton has succumbed to injury, and while healthy, the two players would likely co-exist nicely. Hilton could serve as the downfield threat and field stretcher and Jeudy would thrive underneath as a glorified possession receiver.

A lot of other teams make sense as well, but the Las Vegas Raiders are another nice fit. The Raiders are sorely lacking an alpha target. Jeudy would complement Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, and Hunter Renfrow well. He could immediately step in as their top target. The quarterback situation is currently unsettled – Las Vegas is exploring options outside of Derek Carr – but Carr is at his best as an underneath, accurate passer.

10.) Worst possible destination – Jeudy has elite upside, so landing on a team with an established alpha, especially a young one, would be very disappointing. I don’t know if there are really any teams that would be “bad” landing spots among those that would realistically draft him inside the top half of the first round, though.

Having said that, the Cardinals would be one of the more disappointing spots, in my opinion. They already have Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald playing mostly in the slot, so Jeudy would almost exclusively be playing outside. He’s more than capable of doing so, but his versatility is one of his strengths and he’s at his best on the inside where he can get free releases.

11.) Best current skill – Route running and suddenness. He is an outstanding route runner at all levels of the field, creating separation with ease. He has the rare ability to cut and stop on a dime, factoring into his outstanding run-after-catch ability. His foot quickness is ridiculous, and it allows him to separate from press coverage despite lacking physicality in his game. As a technician, he is as “pro-ready” as it gets and he has the ability to run the full route tree.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Physicality. Despite having similar measurables to CeeDee Lamb, Jeudy appears to be a lot thinner with less mass. He’s not very physical, and his frame can occasionally allow him to get redirected or bullied if he isn’t able to get around or by the defensive player.

He also occasionally struggles to convert in contested catch situations because of his lack of physicality, despite having good hands. He also is not a particularly effective run blocker, even though you don’t draft a player like Jeudy just to block or because of his blocking ability.

13.) Past/current rookie ADP – In February’s 1QB dynasty rookie drafts, he is going off the board as the fifth rookie and the second wide receiver (behind Lamb) on average. He was drafted as high as second in one mock draft and as low as sixth in another, settling within that range in the other eight.

In superflex rookie mocks, he is currently the sixth rookie off the board. He was drafted second in one draft and no later than tenth in another. He was the first receiver selected.

14.) Projected dynasty value – As usual, a rookie’s dynasty value will somewhat hinge on the draft capital spent on him in the real NFL Draft. Jeudy is the WR20 in February’s dynasty startup ADP. He’s being valued between Allen Robinson and Lamb at the position. Other players in his range of 41st overall in startup drafts include Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Austin Ekeler, and I’d rather have Jeudy over them quite comfortably.

Once we see him drafted in the early to middle first round of the NFL Draft, I would expect his price to rise even more and it will likely stay insulated for at least a couple years, even if he flops from a production standpoint. It took Corey Davis two or three years before he began losing value, and I’d expect Jeudy to be far more productive in his first couple seasons.

He has top-five upside at the position as one of the youngest players in this draft and one that should be reinforced with strong draft capital.

15.) Metrics – Jeudy broke out in his sophomore season at the age of 19 (19.4), which is very strong.

Per DLF’s new College Market Share App, he’s been above the baseline regression target mark in receiving yard market share and total dominator just once (in 2018) and twice for receptions (2018 and 2019). His career dominator rating of 25.1% isn’t outstanding, but it’s adequate.

The purpose of market share statistics is to demonstrate how good a player was in comparison to the other players on his team. Even though Jeudy’s raw statistics are tremendous, his market share metrics pale in comparison, and that’s due to sharing the field with the aforementioned Ridley and Smith as well as Irv Smith Jr. and future pros Henry Ruggs, and Jaylen Waddle.

Although he didn’t blow his own teammates away, he dominated competition in the best conference in college football, and that is worth something.

16.) Alabama history – He will go down as one of the best receivers to play for Alabama to date. He appeared in 42 games but made just 28 starts in his collegiate career. In those games, he amassed 26 total touchdowns, good for second in Crimson Tide history (behind Amari Cooper, 31), and is just the second Alabama receiver to ever win the Biletnikoff Award – also joining Cooper.

He is also just the second player in program history to record consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, joining DJ Hall (2006-07).

17.) Learning from greats – It seems like so long ago that Antonio Brown was one of the league’s best wide receivers and, while a minor distraction, Brown was far from the headache and sideshow he has since become. Jeudy trained with Brown last off-season. At the time, there were few better players to learn from.

Brown and Jeudy have similar play styles as sudden, quick-twitch athletes that are advanced route runners, and Brown had been known as a supremely hard worker who tirelessly worked to improve his game.

18.) Recruiting profile – He was a consensus top-25 recruit coming out of Deerfield Beach High School in Pompano Beach, Florida. Per 247Sports’s composite rank, he was the third best wide receiver in the country (behind Donovan Peoples-Jones and Tee Higgins), the 21st overall player in his class and the fifth best in the state of Florida.

Out of high school, the 6’1”, 177-pound Jeudy received 33 offers. He chose the Crimson Tide over many other top schools, including Clemson, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Ohio State and more. The only school he visited other than Alabama was Miami, perhaps due to the proximity to his hometown of Pompano Beach, Florida.

19.) Lamar’s influence – He has referenced how important and influential Lamar Jackson is to his own game. Growing up just an hour away from the elite running quarterback, he’s credited his juking ability and open-field moves to Jackson. The similarities are quite notable once you have that reference in mind.

Jackson once juked Jeudy out of his shoes in a backyard football game as kids, and the receiver began to model his moves in space after the electric quarterback.

20.) Room to grow – He’s the fourth-youngest skill position player in this year’s draft, and won’t turn 21 until the day after he is selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Even with an exercised fifth-year option, he will hit free agency in his prime at age 26. He is extremely young and his upside is insanely high.

Because he’s just 20 years old right now, he also has room to grow physically. He entered college as a 177-pound recruit and has put on 15 pounds of muscle in three years. One of my primary apprehensions with Jeudy is his thin frame and the amount of stress he places on his body as he violently jukes to create space for himself, so the ability to add some additional weight may help him remain durable throughout his career.