Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Bottom Tier
“Forgotten Dynasty Youth” may sound like something of an oxymoron. This is dynasty football, after all, where lack of experience is viewed more as a tick mark in the “pros” column, as it should theoretically allow for additional longevity in the league. And yet the fantasy stock market is occasionally slow to correct itself, potentially yielding values on former blue chip youngsters. In this space I’ll be seeking to identify such assets.
So how am I defining youth? It’s a bit of a gray area. You can use years in the league, age, or amounts of total repetitions, with the latter particularly important at the running back position. But because youthful assets, particularly those selected early in the NFL Draft, tend to maintain dynasty staying power, a higher ADP doesn’t mean they’re not “forgotten.” As such any single metric may not be appropriate here. But one way or another, these will be guys who were once highly esteemed, and who I think may have since fallen a bit off the radar.
Where there will be structure is in the tiers, which will be threefold and as follows:
- Top Tier: ADP < 84.0 (first seven rounds of a 12-team startup draft)
- Middle Tier: ADP > 84.1 and < 168.0 (rounds eight through 14 in a startup draft)
- Bottom Tier: ADP > 168.1 (the rest)
I’ll be looking at four players per tier. Let’s conclude with the Bottom Tier!
Isaac Guerendo, RB SF
ADP: 173.2
Age: 24 years
Stop the presses, a player scored more points when the guys in front of him were out with injury!
Now that I’ve removed my tongue from my cheek (surgery was not required, thank you for asking), let’s get into the case for the second-year player. First and foremost, the advanced numbers support Guerendo’s efficiency. As shown below, of his 5.0 YPC, nearly 60% of them came after contact (2.9 YAC/Att). This was 0.6 YAC/Att better than teammate Jordan Mason, and 1.2 YAC/Att better than Christian McCaffrey. The small sample size is more than a grain of salt but not quite a glacier – it’s enough to make your food unappetizing but surely not inedible.
