Dynasty Decision: Brandon Aiyuk
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
Aiyuk has steadily developed into one of the most complete wide receivers in the NFL. His route-running, hands, and ability to win at all levels of the field have made him a valuable fantasy asset. However, with uncertainty in the 49ers receiving room and returning from serious injury, it’s time to evaluate whether Aiyuk is a player to hold, buy, or sell.
Previous Performance
Aiyuk entered the league as a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and immediately flashed his potential in his rookie season. He finished as WR35 overall (15.4 points per game) while dealing with inconsistent quarterback play and injuries throughout the offense. In 2021, Aiyuk struggled out of the gate, dealing with a brief stint in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse where he couldn’t get on the field consistently. Finally, he bounced back to a respectable WR35 finish. He averaged 11.3 points per game, which looks like a big step back, but once he earned his way back onto the field, he produced much better for fantasy and was a reliable WR2 from week nine onwards.
Aiyuk built on the strong finish to the 2021 season and emerged as the clear leading receiver for the 49ers, finishing with a career-high 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns. He ended the year as WR14 in fantasy scoring with 13.4 points per game. In 2023, Aiyuk took another leap, crossing 1,300 receiving yards and becoming Brock Purdy‘s go-to target in critical situations. He averaged 15.6 points per game and finished as the WR13 overall, cementing himself as a premier talent. However, he continued battling for targets with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, sometimes leading to inconsistent weekly outputs.
After the 2023 season, Aiyuk held out of the off-season program for a contract extension. He eventually received one, but when he returned to the field, he was incredibly rusty and looked like he was not in game shape. He tore his ACL in week seven, ending his season before it really began.
Situation and Usage
Aiyuk has thrived in the 49ers’ offense, which schemes receivers open through play-action and motion-heavy sets. He is the team’s best route-runner and deep threat, often winning against man coverage. However, the presence of multiple playmakers limits his overall target share, capping his weekly ceiling. Despite sharing an offense with Samuel, Kittle, and McCaffrey, he has produced as an elite fantasy option. Despite the 49ers trading away Samuel, there is now the addition of last year’s first-round pick Ricky Pearsall and Juauan Jennings, who emerged last season. This is one of the best offenses in the league, but the volume of options for targets could cap the ceiling for Aiyuk as he is unlikely to see over 140 targets given the alternative options.
Contract
Usually, when a player signs a long-term extension, it gives that player security in their current situation. With Aiyuk, that certainty is not guaranteed. Last off-season, he signed a four-year, $120m contract extension. The contract was severely backloaded with minimum base salaries in years one and two and enormous $42m+ cap hits in years three and four. This was done to try and enable the 49ers to extend their championship window and keep a lot of their elite players under contract.
While this contract gives Aiyuk security, it also makes him quite an appealing trade asset due to the low base salary and the lack of dead money the 49ers would receive if he was traded. This means that over the past few months, there has been plenty of speculation about whether Aiyuk will be in San Francisco long-term or whether he will be traded away.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR34 in February ADP and the 87th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.08 in the 2025 draft or a random 2026 first-round pick and second-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Aiyuk is a really interesting dynasty asset. It is not very often you see players who have produced consistent top-24 options who are still relatively young and available as cheaply as he is currently. Part of that is that he is returning from a serious injury, and part of that is the concern about whether Aiyuk will remain in San Francisco long-term. However, acquiring him for the overall WR34 price is an absolute bargain, and he is easily worth the 1.08 in this year’s current draft.
If you’re a contending team, he makes a lot of sense as a buy-low who may not impact your winning early in the season but should be fully firing when it comes to playoff time. If you’re rebuilding, he is the perfect low-risk, high-upside swing you should take. In the worst-case scenario, you can acquire him now and sell him for a profit in-season when he is healthy and producing on the field.
My favorite move would be to pivot off an aging win-now piece like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, or Tyreek Hill to Aiyuk while also adding an additional asset in the process. It could look like a great trade straight up in 6 months’ time, but if you’re adding an additional asset on top, it should help ease any rustiness for Aiyuk returning from injury.
- Dynasty Decision: Brandon Aiyuk - March 21, 2025
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