Dynasty Decision: George Kittle
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
George Kittle, TE SF
Almost since the moment he stepped into the league, Kittle has been a fantasy superstar. He has been a consistent difference-maker at the position when healthy and active. However, now heading into his ninth season in the league, it could be time to start exploring whether you should be moving on from the veteran tight end or whether he still presents a return on investment at his current cost.
Previous Performance
As a fifth-round pick, Kittle wasn’t expected to be a fantasy superstar. However, apart from his rookie year, he has been exactly that – finishing as a top-six tight end every season he has played more than nine games. The mix of season-long consistency and elite production is rare and truly shows the quality of the veteran tight end for fantasy. The recent run of four top-five finishes in a row despite missing games in each of the seasons shows how great he can be. If you look at the underlying numbers, you will see that he has been remarkably consistent. He has been above 1.8 yards per route run and 17.4% targets per route run every season since his rookie year. His 2024 numbers bounced back to 21.8% targets per route run and 2.62 yards per route run after a couple of down years in 2022 and 2023.
Situation and Usage
The situation in San Francisco is arguably the most unsettled in the entire league. In Theory, they enter next season with George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Christian McCaffrey, and Ricky Pearsall as primary pass catchers. How this off-season shakes out will significantly impact Kittle and his fantasy prospects. The expectation is that Brandon Aiyuk will be eased back into things after his knee injury last season and that Deebo Samuel will be granted permission to seek a trade. So that could remove two targets out of the room. George Kittle is likely to play a key role in the offense, but he will see a drop in overall target volume, with the younger receivers likely taking a step forward and Aiyuk and McCaffrey returning from injuries.
Contract
George Kittle is in the final year of his five-year, $75m contract, which he signed in August 2020. A $13.6m void would accelerate onto the 49ers 2026 cap hit if there isn’t an extension or restructure done. This means it is highly likely that Kittle will be extended this off-season; otherwise, he will hit free agency next season, and the 49ers will still be on the hook for over $13m in dead cap. I would expect a two or three-year extension with maybe one or one and a half extra years in guaranteed money.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the TE7 in January ADP and the 99th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 2.01 in the 2025 draft or two random 2026 second-round picks in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
I struggle with Kittle when it comes to his valuation and understanding of what to do with him in dynasty. It feels like he was starting to decline in production through 2022 and 2023 before a phenomenal year in 2024. However, that comes with a backdrop of Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey missing most of the season and Deebo Samuel having a down year. Heading into 2025, it feels like a new era in San Francisco with the weapons going through a transition phase.
Kittle is going to have a role in 2025, but it’s tough to be confident about how much volume he will see, given the number of mouths to feed. There is also the contract situation; it would make a lot of sense to extend Kittle for a couple of years and push some money into the future in order to maximize the Superbowl window with this current roster. However, with a Brock Purdy mega-extension looming, the 49ers may not want to push too much money into future years with the potential of paying their quarterback 50 times what he has been earning through each of the past three seasons.
Because of all of that, I think Kittle needs to be viewed as a two-year asset. He will likely settle in as a mid-TE1 again this year, somewhere in the TE4-TE7 range, with one or two missed games dinging him slightly. Where he is playing in 2026 is slightly up in the air, but I’m confident he can be productive for at least one season. Then, beyond that, it’s a question mark. Yes, we have seen other Tight Ends age gracefully, but they’re usually more receiver-based tight ends and don’t get as involved in the run game as Kittle does.
Because of all of this, I think Kittle is the perfect split for contending/rebuilding. He feels correctly priced, and if you’re contending in 2025, he is an attractive player to acquire. However, if you’re not contending in 2025, this is probably your last window to sell before his price drops significantly. The rare sit-on-the-fence dynasty decision player!
- Dynasty Decision: George Kittle - February 21, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: George Pickens - February 14, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Jonathan Taylor - February 7, 2025
