Superflex Dynasty Rankings Explained: John Hogue

Dynasty Rankings Explained is back! In this series DLF rankers explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, including 2025 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each value those dynasty rookie picks compared to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft. As expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every manager. Instead, we've long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps instead, choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker's personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The "+/-" column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average. We'll go 120 players and picks deep, so for a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

SUPERFLEX DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: JOHN HOGUE

Two years ago, in this very series, I wrote about the unfortunate disconnect between startup value and ongoing value (post-startup). A player is going to have distinct value when the rest of his position is still available for the cost of one of your startup draft picks, which were given to you by simply joining the league. But then the startup ends, you no longer have the same access to players and position groups, and the player’s value necessarily changes.

I construct my rankings off of ongoing value, since you already have access to “startup value” in the form of ADP, and because ongoing value is useful year in and year out, while the startup value loses its relevance the moment the player is drafted in the startup. The problem is, startup value is a lot easier to identify; the startup draft tells you exactly how they value players by the order in which they are drafted. But ongoing value doesn’t have such a mechanism; even trade value is a temporary setpoint that doesn’t account for potential changes.

Without scoring to drive their value, we spend the next eight-plus months relying on a different kind of utility as we maneuver toward a championship quality roster. My friend and colleague Scott Conner did an amazing job of discussing the concept of player demand on his Destination Devy podcast, which, to me, defines the mechanism that assigns players their value between NFL seasons.

None of them score points right now, but it is still preferable to get the players who will eventually score the most points when the time comes. That is demand, and it applies to both individual players as well as entire position groups. It also encompasses things like player profiles (greater supply of low volume, high variance WRs drives down their demand. Lack of supply of bell-cow running backs drives up their demand), and can even cover multiple seasons.

My rankings consider both current demand and the demand curve of a player over the next several seasons (depending on the position career arc, and expectancy). This makes it a lot easier to consider the value of 2025 rookie picks as well, as it considers the demand for the range of outcomes for each pick. Rather than assigning a specific player to a pick, we can consider all of the possibilities for that pick after the NFL draft, and measure the value of that range against individual veteran players. The picks actually have greater demand for their multiple positive potential outcomes, which most accurately reflects the way we covet rookie picks… the demand we have for those picks.

All of this is to say, you may not love the rankings of Player X versus Player Y, but this is still a very useful way to consider player values because it represents how the plurality (if not majority) of your league feels about the player. Of course, there is still subjectivity involved, but the goal for me is always to capture the demand for a player or draft pick to the most people, agnostic of things like roster builds and individual strategies. And that is the most useful ongoing value that I can imagine.

Rankings: 1 - 24

It is shaping up to be the most peaceful offseason that I can remember for those of us who highly prioritize quarterbacks in superflex. An overall down season at the position really shines a light on the importance of the good ones. There is still controversy in my top tiers, but for once, the controversial statement isn’t that the top two tiers are all QBs. People won’t love the way I rank those top seven QBs (Herbert AND Stroud over likely Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels!? BLASPHEMY!). But I’m guessing – or, at least, hoping – that they are finally onboard with the idea that QBs occupy the top seven spots.

Moving Josh Allen ahead of Patrick Mahomes is a move I take very seriously, because I don’t believe that Mahomes’ skills have diminished, making it hard to rationalize suddenly ranking Allen higher. But consistency has to be a tentpole to our dynasty rankings, and Allen has been consistently more productive than Mahomes for three straight seasons.

The top seven also include Justin Herbert, bouncing back from consecutive injury-riddled seasons, and CJ Stroud suffering through his highly predictable sophomore slump. Both players have the elite skill sets to challenge for QB1 overall for the season, and both players have already provided proof of concept with top 5 finishes already in their young respective careers. As for Jayden Daniels, his year one breakout will keep him in the top tiers through the 2025 season, but a sophomore slump of his own seems to be imminent… which would lower his demand below that of Herbert and Stroud. This is a preemptive ranking based on the small value dip Daniels would incur if negative regression hits in year two.

Running backs Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De'Von Achane open up the non-QBs because of the league-winning upside a top RB can provide. However, the third tier is dominated by young, foundational wide receivers, including rookies Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers. Ja’Marr Chase led the elite WR renaissance in 2024 by leading all WRs in receptions, receiving yards, AND receiving TDs on his way to a whopping 4.3 fantasy points per game and 68 total fantasy points more than WR2 Justin Jefferson; where RB1 is typically the unfair advantage with a large scoring advantage over the rest of the position, this year it was the WR1 who lapped the field.

Jordan Love, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix kick off the next tier, creating a mini QB tier just outside the truly elite. This is where the first 2025 rookie pick emerges for me as well, with 1.01 expected to be Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty, with a nice landing spot and likely strong draft capital. Not much could change the pick, which makes it extra valuable as it is locked in on a young bellcow RB. I can’t justify pushing the pick ahead of the three young QBs, as the 2025 rookie draft won’t offer a great chance to replace a QB.

Tight Ends break the seal with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride back to back, and it is extremely tempting to put McBride ahead of Bowers with volume favoring McBride and touchdown regression a near certainty. But Bowers should maintain his demand at the top of the position over the long term. It’s hard to go wrong with either of the young target hogs, even in a format that assumes no tight end premium; they’re still among the best pass catchers in the league, even when compared to WRs.