Monday Mocks: January 1QB Dynasty ADP
Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys, and more.
Our January dynasty ADP mock drafts are wrapping up and that brand-new data will be posted here on the site very soon. Until then, I wanted to share a sneak peek at how the top players in the game are being valued.
I have noticed over the years that our January data varies greatly from the previous month. This checks out when considering the general mindset of dynasty players this time of year. Not only is January a time of resolutions and fresh starts in life, but in dynasty fantasy football as well. We often see veteran players lose value while younger player scream up the board. Because of this trend, I’ll focus on each player’s past and current value and how that has changed in recent months.
ROUND ONE:
1.01 - Ja'Marr Chase, WR CIN
It’s been a banner year for Chase, who led the league in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708), and receiving touchdowns (17), notching the first Triple Crown since Cooper Kupp in 2021 and only the second over the past twenty seasons. Chase and his quarterback Joe Burrow both stayed healthy, leading to career years for both players. Although he’s listed as the 1.01, Chase actually has the exact same ADP as…
1.02 - Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
Chase’s magnificent season somehow overshadowed Jefferson’s performance. A year after dealing with injuries, Jefferson played all 17 games, tying his career-high with ten touchdowns. Jefferson and Chase, former LSU teammates, remain a coin flip as the top option in 1QB dynasty leagues. Perhaps the uncertainty with Jefferson’s quarterback situation is enough to be a tie-breaker in the early part of the dynasty off-season.
1.03 - CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
The top three receivers and overall dynasty players remain the same as one year ago but this time it is Lamb who endured a frustrating season. After losing his quarterback Dak Prescott earlier in the season, Lamb dealt with nagging injuries through much of the season before eventually shutting it down early. Even in a down year, Lamb finished as the WR8 on the year and might actually become a value play in the early off-season, a time known for its recency bias.
1.04 - Malik Nabers, WR NYG
As a rookie, Nabers made a quick impact for the Giants and dynasty managers and he quickly ascended dynasty rankings and ADP. There’s a narrow margin between the “big three” and the rookie Nabers and with the Giants sure to upgrade the quarterback position this off-season, there’s room for improvement and value gain for yet another former LSU wideout.
1.05 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET
Lacking the perceived upside of the wideouts drafted ahead of him, Lions star receiver St. Brown checks in as the WR5 and fifth overall player. St. Brown set a new career-high mark with a dozen touchdowns, though his other counting stats were down from a year ago with Jameson Williams and others taking some of the weight of the Detroit offense. I think St. Brown’s original NFL Draft capital is still being held against him by some dynasty managers.
1.06 - Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
The wideout streak ends as Falcons star Robinson holds the RB1 spot. Robinson, while still carrying a hefty amount of dynasty value, had actually been knocked off the top line in recent months. Last off-season’s changes in Atlanta, including a new coaching staff and a pair of new signal callers, led to the breakout performance everyone expected from Robinson. He finished as the RB3 with major statistical improvements from his rookie campaign.
