Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier
Whether I’m the yin to his yang, the heads to his tails, or perhaps just the other side of the pillow, I’m authoring this miniseries as a supplement to my colleague Tyler Justin Karp, who is looking at the Forgotten Dynasty Youth. You might think I drew the short straw here, given that veterans are often persona non grata in a largely ageist dynasty culture. However, to me, veterans represent a very important subset of football players, as oftentimes you can find bargains relative to the shiny new toys.
So how am I defining veterans? It’s a bit of a gray area. You can use years in the league, age, or wear and tear, with the latter particularly important at the running back position. However, we already know that players like Davante Adams and Mike Evans have relatively lower ADPs as compared to younger players who produce similarly solely due to their age, but that doesn’t mean they’re “forgotten.” So using age or any other single metric doesn’t seem appropriate to me. But one way or another these will be guys who have been around the block at least a few times, and who I think may have fallen a bit off the radar.
Where there will be structure is in the tiers, which will be threefold and as follows:
- Top Tier: ADP < 84.0 (first seven rounds of a 12-team startup draft)
- Middle Tier: ADP > 84.1 and < 168.0 (rounds eight through 14 in a startup draft)
- Bottom Tier: ADP > 168.1 (the rest)
I’ll be looking at four players per tier, and you can find my previous thoughts on the Top Tier and Middle Tier. Today we’ll conclude with the Bottom Tier!
Gus Edwards, RB LAC
ADP: 175.0
Age: 28 years
Years in League: Six
A yearly metronome of consistency, all Edwards does is outplay his ADP! Just last season the former Raven finished as the PPR RB26, totaling nearly 1,000 total yards to go with 13 scores on the ground. Where did he start the year? With an ADP of 209.3, as the RB70. This is all to say rolling with Edwards is essentially playing with house money.
Dynasty owners have gotten wise, but not wise enough in my opinion, as Edwards is still the RB55 per the current ADP. And while he seems to have gotten a bit of a boost following his signing with the Chargers and former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, his ADP is more or less that of an afterthought.
We’re talking about an aging running back, so I can’t feign a huge amount of surprise here. But as always, actions speak loudly, and the Chargers coaching staff has done nearly everything humanly possible to roll out the red carpet for a power run game. Keenan Allen? Traded. Mike Williams? Cut. Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett? Allowed to test free agency. Short of cutting off quarterback Justin Herbert’s throwing arm so that he can literally only hand the ball off, new coach Jim Harbaugh couldn’t have held his cards any farther away from his chest in declaring his intentions.
And none of this should be surprising. In his 2023 National Championship season with the Michigan Wolverines, the offense dialed up a whopping 563 rushes compared to 361 passing attempts, this despite a lackluster aggregate 4.5 YPC. For better or worse the running attack is the girl that brought Harbaugh to the party, and that’s who he’s going to dance with.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
To be clear, I anticipate the Chargers will take a ball carrier in the upcoming NFL Draft. Apart from Caleb Williams, there is likely no chalkier pick than former Wolverine Blake Corum landing in LA. But Edwards got a reasonable $6.5 million contract over two years, with just over half guaranteed. There’s no reason to think he won’t have cheap fantasy value on what will be a run-first team.
Kendrick Bourne, WR NE
ADP: 193.7
Age: 28 years
Years in League: Seven
You might recall that when I chronicled New England ball carrier Rhamondre Stevenson in the ‘Top Tier’ edition of this miniseries, I referred to Bourne as the only bright spot on the team’s offense. To that point, and while noting there were some early clunkers against solid defenses like the Jets and Cowboys, Bourne flashed high-end upside on an otherwise broken squad.
As shown on DLF’s Player Scoring History app, Bourne had three top-10 finishes through the season’s first seven weeks. Even when he got hurt in week eight he still managed to finish as the PPR WR34, as he was sitting on a 3-36-1 line through 60% of the team’s snaps. If I were to take a liberal projection, I think if he finished out that game we’d be looking at four PPR WR2 finishes or better out of eight contests, proving an ability to dramatically outplay his ADP.
While there’s been little news on his injury status, the receiver himself stated in February that he’s ahead of schedule. That and a dollar will get you a Diet Coke, but New England is clearly okay with his recovery, having signed him to a three-year deal worth $19.5 million, including $7.25 million guaranteed. The Patriots have a potential out after the upcoming season, but given the dearth of options on the depth chart, that might not be a luxury they can afford.
In this range, every player has warts. But they don’t all have the high-end range of outcomes Bourne flashed last year. As the WR85 by ADP, I expect a healthy Bourne to smash expectations.
Darnell Mooney, WR ATL
ADP: 194.2
Age: 26 years
Years in League: Four
Once viewed as a promising young talent, Mooney’s value has dropped precipitously since a second-year breakout resulted in his first and only 1,000-yard season. The young receiver had climbed as high as an early fifth-round ADP in August of 2022, which was followed by a steady decrease in value over the next 1.5 years. Similar to Edwards above, the market has slightly corrected at least in some part due to an upgraded situation in Atlanta, but Mooney is still coming off the board as the WR87.
Given the wholesale offensive ineptitude in Chicago, the blame can be broadly distributed. Still, it’s at least notable that Mooney appeared to have more success in 2021 with pocket passer Andy Dalton versus dual-threat Justin Fields, with three of his four 100-yard games and a majority of his targets coming from the Red Rifle. This isn’t to say Fields is to blame either, as he was able to support a top-end pass catcher last season in DJ Moore. Rather, it’s to open the possibility that the two didn’t sync. The numbers from the DLF Player Splits app support this theory.
As a Falcon, Mooney will be well behind ascending talent Drake London at receiver, and will also be fighting with tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson for looks. This is a trio of high-end first-round picks, and most any non-Arthur Smith coach should know how to use them appropriately. Suffice it to say, Mooney won’t be functioning as a target hog.
But Kirk Cousins is a great, if not elite quarterback who was on his way to the best season of his career in 2023. If he returns healthy, 80-100 quality targets for Mooney are within the range of possibility. With $39 million over three years and $26 million guaranteed, Atlanta is clearly banking on this likelihood. At the risk of repeating myself yet again, if he plays to his potential Mooney will absolutely crush his current value.
Mike Gesicki, TE CIN
ADP: 225.2
Age: 28 years
Years in League: Six
We’ve clearly reached the bottom of the barrel here, so why not get a little weird in concluding this miniseries? And when it comes to Gesicki’s meandering career, ‘weird’ is an apt way to describe it.
As is reflected in the ADP, Gesicki had the look of an early bust after accumulating only 202 receiving yards as a rookie. But from there, Gesicki began to flash good-to-great upside at the position, finishing as the PPR TE12, TE7 and TE9 from 2019 through 2021. Not surprisingly this led to an increase and maintenance in value just outside the top 100 picks per the ADP.
Then came head coach Mike McDaniel…
For some reason, which is particularly galling considering McDaniel’s outright disdain for the tight end position, the Dolphins franchise-tagged Gesicki for the 2022 season. What followed were numbers reminiscent of his rookie season, as the catch-first, block-last former Nittany Lion was a match made in hell for the new offensive system. Unsurprisingly this led to a loss in dynasty value, which was unable to be rehabbed in another forgettable year with the anemic Patriots offense in 2023.
I don’t know if Gesicki simply isn’t the same player that he showed in 2019 through 2021, with nearly a quarter of his games resulting in top-5 positional finishes. What I do know is he’ll find himself in an infinitely better situation, having signed a one-year deal with the Bengals worth $2.5 million. It’s true the money doesn’t scream “instant contributor,” but there will be targets available behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as Cincy continues to try to paper over the position. Lesser talents such as Tanner Hudson, CJ Uzomah and Hayden Hurst put up workable if not good numbers over the past few years, meaning there exists a path for Gesicki. For the price of “free,” he’s a sensible pickup who can be easily dropped if the stats don’t materialize.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Justin Jefferson Or A Bundle Of Draft Picks? - April 23, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
