2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Jacob Cowing, WR Arizona
Jacob Cowing is one of the more interesting rookie wide receiver prospects in this loaded 2024 class because his profile is multi-layered and full of plenty of pros and cons. Cowing combines impressive production, an elite analytic profile, and blazing speed into one package. The downside is his diminutive size and concerning usage at the college level.
There’s a lot to like about Cowing, but are the positives enough to outweigh the negatives? We’ll answer that below.
The Stats
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
As you can see, Cowing is not an early declarer, but that is the only wart on his analytic profile. He spent five years in college and was incredibly productive during his time at both UTEP and Arizona.
He broke out at the age of 18 in his first season in El Paso for an awful UTEP team that went 1-11. That season, his quarterback recorded a Pro Football Focus passing grade of 56.4 (127th out of 137 qualified passers) and only completed ten or more passes in four games! Cowing continued to grow from there and enjoyed an outstanding junior season in 2021 which saw him finish the year with 69 catches for 1,354 yards and seven touchdowns. That year he finished seventh in PFF grade at 90.0, second in yards per route run at 3.82, and he earned a dominator rating of 41%.
After three outstanding years at UTEP, he decided to transfer to the Power 5 and picked up where he left off at Arizona. During his two years for the Wildcats, Cowing had 175 catches for 1,882 yards and 20 touchdowns.
His first season at Arizona was insanely impressive. His 1,034 yards lead a team consisting of future first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan and also Dorian Singer. 2023 was a bit of a down year production-wise compared to his last four seasons of college football, but he still finished with 89 catches for 868 yards and 13 touchdowns. Cowing finished his college career ninth all-time in receptions, seventh all-time in receiving yards, and 42nd all-time in touchdowns.
Courtesy of PFF.
While Cowing no doubt enjoyed an incredibly productive career, and earned targets at an insanely high rate, the odd part about his game is his usage at his different stops throughout his time in college.
At UTEP he was used as a deep-threat option and utilized his speed to blow past defenders at the G5 level. His aDOT was 14.8 or greater in all three years at UTEP and that coincided with yards/receptions values of 17.7, 16.9, and 19.7 during his time as a Miner. After he transitioned to Arizona, Cowing’s usage changed drastically. No longer was he valued as a deep threat, a role reserved for Tet McMillan’s massive frame, and instead Cowing was used much closer to the line of scrimmage.
In 2023, Cowing had 34 catches at or behind the line of scrimmage; he only had 21 catches at or behind the line of scrimmage during his entire three-year stint at UTEP. After an aDOT hovering around 15.5 during his first three seasons, that number fell to 8.4 in 2022 and then even further to 6.7 in 2023.
Now Cowing’s low aDOT is not the end of the world, it definitely raises a few questions about his game. Maybe this was just a product of playing next to the 6’4’’ McMillan who was amazing down the field and Cowing needed to play a role in the offense. However, it could also be a sign that he wasn’t able to win down the field on a consistent basis after making the jump from C-USA to the Pac 12 which would be concerning for an even bigger jump to the NFL.
The Film
I love to look at this game from Cowing because it showcases a combination of what he did during his time at UTEP and at Arizona and perfectly encapsulates the kind of player he could be at the NFL level.
We see a few of the plays that were so common during the season and led to his extremely low aDOT. There are a few slants, screens, and quick-outs. However, Arizona really opened up the playbook in this game and Cowing had his highest aDOT of the season and he thrived.
On multiple plays, Cowing was able to create separation down the field and pick up big chunks. Once on the seam down the middle for a long touchdown and another on a deep out where he found the soft spot in the defense for a big gain.
Finally, Cowing’s most impressive play of the game was when he caught a crossing route in the middle of the field and ran by the entire defense for a huge touchdown. He showcased his speed and YAC ability that he so frequently put on display at UTEP.
The Measurables
Courtesy of RAS.
Cowing is small, there isn’t any other way to put it. His height is in the seventh percentile historically while his weight is in the fourth percentile historically for wide receivers at the combine. There have been plenty of comparisons made to Tank Dell because they are almost identical in size. Dell measured in at the exact same height and was only a few pounds lighter at 165.
Unsurprisingly, Cowing struggled in contested catch situations due to his size. Throughout his career, he had 74 contested targets and was only able to haul in 27 of them for a measly 36.5% contested catch rate.
However, the intriguing aspect of Cowing’s physical profile is his speed. He clocked in at the fifth-fastest 40 time and his 10-yard split of 1.52 was tied for the fourth fastest in the class. This was evident in the film as he was able to burn past defenders on deep balls or run by them with the ball in his hands.
The Value
Courtesy of Mock Draft Database.
Cowing is going to be a day-three selection, there’s no debate about that. Consensus rankings have him going somewhere at the end of the fourth round or the beginning of the fifth round in a range I think we see a lot of other WRs taken as well. Day three WRs obviously have a much lower hit rate than WRs drafted on the first two days, but we have seen these late draft picks make an immediate impact more often in recent years with players like Puka Nacua, Dontayvion Wicks, and Demario Douglas just last year alone.
As NFL teams transition to more 11 personnel on offense, there are going to be more chances for young WRs to earn playing time, and many of these new receivers are used to playing in these kinds of systems from their time in college.
Courtesy of DLF’s March Rookie ADP.
When we look at WRs 15 through 25 according to DLF’s rookie ADP, one thing stands out above all the rest: we have a lot of older prospects in this range. Even the two players without listed ages, Xavier Weaver and Zakhari Franklin, are fifth-year seniors. Usually, we want to target younger players in rookie drafts, but I’m not really holding age against any of these guys because of the unique situations they encountered in college with the extra COVID year of eligibility and the introduction of NIL. However, Cowing does have an advantage over the rest of the players in this range because he’s the only one with a breakout age of 18.
The Outlook
Cowing is a super interesting prospect with lots of positives including his elite production, impressive analytic profile, and blazing speed. However, there are also obvious concerns. He’s tiny and has routinely shown that he struggles to make contested catches. He also has a bit of a drop problem with six or more in each of his five college seasons and a 9.5% drop rate for his career. Finally, his usage at Arizona is mildly concerning; any player who relies that heavily on screens is always going to raise some questions.
After all of that is said and done, I’m in on Cowing at his price. He’s going in the middle of the fourth round and absolutely worth the risk there and I’ll probably draft a lot of Cowing at the end of the third or beginning of the fourth if he does get drafted in the fourth round. I’m a firm believer in taking chances on players who earn targets at a high rate. Cowing had 110 or more targets in each of his final three college seasons and that would have been four seasons if not for the COVID-shortened 2020 season where he was on pace for 112 targets as well.
Volume is king in fantasy football, and Cowing has shown the ability to earn targets down the field at UTEP and then again in a different role alongside a future top-ten pick at Arizona. There aren’t a lot of WRs I like in the fourth round of rookie drafts, but Cowing is the one exception.
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