2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.06
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft, and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, our team will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Superflex Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could soon be adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, we’ll include options based on the updated 1QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we’ll examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
Rookie Selection 1.06
The Pick: Rome Odunze, WR
The 1.06 is a really interesting spot in superflex rookie drafts because there are a lot of different players potentially available depending on what the other managers in front of you do with picks one through five. Currently, Odunze is the most likely option at the 1.06 based on DLF’s current Superflex Rookie ADP. However, we could see Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, and JJ McCarthy as the pick in different leagues.
Odunze is currently the WR3 in the 2024 draft class but in many other years, he could surely find himself as the WR1. Over his final two seasons at Washington, Odunze recorded 167 receptions for 2,784 yards and 20 touchdowns. Over those two seasons, he had an elite YPRR mark of 2.74 and was 25/44 in contested catch situations.
The hype is real, and it reached a fever pitch when Matt Harmon released his Reception Perception chart of Odunze’s 2023 season. According to Harmon, this was his first ever “all green” chart in history which means Odunze had an above-average success rate in every type of route last season.
Courtesy of Reception Perception.
Trade Value:
- 1.06 for Michael Pittman/3.06
- 1.06/Travis Etienne for 1.02
Possible Pivots:
- Brock Bowers
- JJ McCarthy
1QB League Options:
Rookie Selection 2.06
The Pick: Bo Nix, QB
The second round is littered with RBs and WRs but Nix is the current 2.06 in ADP. The Oregon quarterback is often mentioned in the same breath as Washington’s Michael Penix leading up to the draft because of the obvious similarities: older prospects, both from the Pac-12, and pretty clearly valued as the fifth and sixth-best QBs in this class. However, dynasty rookie ADP does not have them nearly as closely grouped because Penix is currently valued as the 1.12.
Nix had quite a fun and productive college career. He spent three years at Auburn enjoying some up and down years which saw him incapable of not turning the ball over, he transferred to Oregon to try and resurrect his career. In Eugene, he blossomed with the help of a short and quick passing game and plenty of talented receivers.
The biggest knock on Nix is the system that finally brought him success will likely not be sustainable at the NFL level. His aDOT was 6.8 yards which was 161st out of 165 qualified passers in college football this season. He also really benefited from an excellent scheme that allowed his WRs to pick up massive yardage after the catch. Tez Johnson had 727 yards after the catch (second most in the country) and Troy Franklin had 538 yards after the catch (18th most in the country).
I’m not the biggest fan of Nix as an NFL prospect, but I understand that if a team drafts him in the first round then his rookie ADP is going to rise because of that draft capital. However, if Nix goes in the 33-40 range in the second round I can’t imagine drafting him over the RBs and WRs that will be available in this 2.06 range.
Trade Value:
- 2.06 for Michael Mayer
- 2.06 for Derrick Henry
Possible Pivots:
1QB League Options:
Rookie Selection 3.06
The Pick: Bucky Irving, RB
Phew, Bucky Irving. There is a lot to say about him. He’s someone who may have been my RB3 on February 1st. He has excellent marks in all the necessary advanced metrics. His 3.81 yards after contact is sixth best in the class, his .362 missed tackles forced per attempt is third best in the class, and his 9.1% explosive rush rate is tied for 5th.
The problem for Irving is he put up arguably the worst combine performance of any dynasty-relevant player in the entire field. He came in at 5’9’’ and 192 pounds which is very small. However, that wasn’t even the most concerning thing because we already knew he wasn’t very big. He struggled with a 4.55-second 40-yard dash time and a 1.61-second 10-yard split which were both right around average, but not great for someone of his size. The biggest red flag was his explosive testing; Irving logged a 29.5-inch vertical (11th percentile) and a 9’7’’ broad jump (40th percentile).
It’s hard to reconcile what we’ve seen on film from Irving with this testing. He looks quick and explosive while he weaves between defenders and breaks tackles but the NFL combine results give me pause on whether that can continue at the next level.
In February he was the consensus RB5 going at the end of the second round of rookie drafts. Now he’s valued as the RB8 and has fallen all the way to the middle of the third round. I’m taking Audric Estime over Irving in this range easily and there are even a few WRs I would prefer over Irving as well.
Trade Value:
- 3.06 for Rashod Bateman
- 3.06 for Dontayvion Wicks
Possible Pivots:
- Will Shipley
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- Audric Estime
1QB League Options:
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.02 - April 22, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.06 - April 18, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Devontez Walker, WR South Carolina - April 17, 2024
