DLF Team Dynasty Predictions for 2024 NFL Draft: Running Backs
Dynasty League Football is the premier source for dynasty fantasy football analysis, and its contributors are some of the top minds in the industry. So, we needed to figure out how the team at DLF feels about the 2024 class of rookies! We surveyed the team, and we’ll analyze the results in a four-part series, continuing here with the running backs!
This is a very unique running back group compared to others in recent memory. There is no consensus number one. Nobody is going to be picked in the first round. We aren’t even sure who amongst the running backs will be a second-round pick. It is an underwhelming class, but just how bad is it? That’s the question we wanted to ask first to our group of DLF contributors to get a feeling for where this draft class ranks.
A majority of the contributors we surveyed agree that this is one of the worst classes we have seen in the past ten years. With no high-end talent at the top, injury concerns, and a lack of production at the college level, nobody really jumps off the page from this class.
John Hogue voted this class as a top five or six draft class, saying, “I won’t put them bottom three…this is a very deep class, the position is just a little more saturated than usual for NFL purposes, which is pushing them down draft boards.” He says it “looks like a bad class,” but it could end “up surprising people.”
Hogue is absolutely right, there are going to be some very valuable dynasty running backs from this group. The tough part is going to be deciding which ones are the best to target, especially before we get to see landing spots and draft capital after the NFL Draft. With that said, who do we believe is the number one running back right now?
There is consensus at the top of every other position in dynasty drafts this year. Caleb Williams is the number one quarterback, Marvin Harrison is the number one receiver and Brock Bowers is far-and-away the number one tight end. At running back, six different people could answer this question differently. In our survey, we saw Trey Benson, Jonathan Brooks, Jaylen Wright, and MarShawn Lloyd receive votes.
Benson and Brooks took most of the votes, with a majority of them going to Trey Benson as the number one running back in this class. That split tracks with the official DLF Rankings, where Benson and Brooks each get four first running back votes, but Benson edges out Brooks in the overall ranking.
“Trey Benson has been my RB1 in this class since last year,” Justin Taylor explained. “While he wasn’t a workhorse at Florida State, he had a good ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, never fumbled the ball, and had great contact balance with top-end speed to hit the home run.”
Brooks is an interesting case for this study because he is coming off of a season-ending ACL injury. Medical reports for Brooks seem to be good, including from the Scouting Combine’s medical re-checks last week. “Brooks is the most talented and complete back,” says Richard Cooling. “If it wasn’t for the ACL he’d be talked about as a top seven superflex rookie pick.”
I agree with everything Cooling says, but I voted with Taylor and chose Benson as my number one running back. I analyzed Brooks for a DLF rookie profile, where I outlined my concerns for him as a professional. We see running backs take a long time to get back to 100% from ACL injuries, even when they’re playing through the recovery. I might have to pass on Brooks in rookie drafts and target him in trades next year instead.
"I think the optimal strategy for Brooks could be to let someone else draft him and then buy low on him if he comes back and struggles. While this strategy might work, I believe his ADP reflects the risk that you’re taking in drafting him." — @timmymrhttps://t.co/Q4PKJHCI3T pic.twitter.com/vpAJBhlHgs
— DLF (@DLFootball) April 9, 2024
Interestingly, none of those surveyed picked Blake Corum as their number one running back for dynasty. That brings us to the most overrated running back in this year’s class, according to the DLF contributors.
There are plenty of analysts and draft-nicks in the world who rank Blake Corum as the number one running back in this class, but the analysts at DLF say he is the most overrated running back prospect in 2024. He led the NCAA in rushing touchdowns in 2023 with 27. He was the centerpiece of Michigan’s offense on the way to a National Championship. When it comes to the 2024 running back class, he’s by far the biggest household name.
But, there are some flaws in his game that raise questions as he transitions to the NFL level. “Corum ultimately faces existential questions pretty quickly as a prospect,” explains Steve Gill. “Without any otherworldly talents (particularly a generally good-not-great athletic profile), he’s facing an uphill battle just to sustain a significant workload at his size. Others have done it in the past, but I’m not sure he’s at that same talent level. I wouldn’t count on it.” I’m with Gill on this one, as Corum was my pick for most overrated as well.
Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright received the second-most votes for the most overrated back. As we saw in the previous graphic, he received votes for the number one overall running back, so it’s interesting to see that a number of DLF contributors are also down on him as a prospect. Braelon Allen, Bucky Irving, Will Shipley and Jonathon Brooks also received votes.
Kentucky’s Ray Davis is the most underrated running back in this draft class, as voted upon by the DLF Contributors. Davis has been one of the best stories of the pre-draft process. He came from very humble beginnings in the Bay Area, spending time in foster care while his parents were incarcerated. He also bounced around college programs, playing at Temple and Vanderbilt before finishing his career at Kentucky. On the field, Davis is a true three-down back. He’s a hard-nosed runner who leads with his pads to gain the tough yards, but he’s also a really good pass-catcher out of the backfield. He’ll need to find himself in the right situation, and he’ll need to be coached up a bit, but Ray Davis is a very interesting prospect. Justin Taylor explained his pick saying, “Ray Davis is an older prospect, but I think he can make an impact at the NFL level.”
In a five-way tie for second place in this category, we have Jaylen Wright, MarShawn Lloyd, Bucky Irving, Kimani Vidal and Will Shipley. Vidal is a small-school running back out of Troy who was written in by several contributors, including Andrew Francesconi. “Vidal won’t be drafted in the first three rounds, but he’s the perfect ‘RBs don’t matter’ back,” he explained. “A team without an immediate need at RB will take him on day 3 and he’ll force his way onto the field.”
Will Shipley was my pick for this question. There are plenty of holes in his game, but I loved watching his tape at Clemson. He’s certainly undersized, and will never be a lead back or a goal-line back, but he’s a talented runner, receiver and returner. With the new kickoff return rules, he may be valued higher than some other similar backs.
Audric Estime, Dylan Laube and Jonathon Brooks also received votes for this question.
While there is no consensus top back in this class, Benson and Brooks appear to be the players at the top of most analysts’ rankings. So we needed to ask, what is the ceiling for these players. Most of the analysts surveyed agree that Benson and Brooks will be able to top out as an RB1 at some point in their career. It seems that Brooks has the higher ceiling, as 63.2% of those surveyed believe he will have a top 10 season at some point in his career. Jeff Mueller said that Brooks has the “best three-down skill set for PPR” of all of the backs.
With these two backs at the top of the board, we asked how many running backs should be first round picks in 1QB rookie drafts. The consensus answer (52.6%) was two, most likely Benson and Brooks. Per the April Rookie ADP, only one running back lands in the top 12, Trey Benson. Brooks finished at 13th, just outside of the first round. Where the running backs end up will be one of the most interesting questions of 2024 rookie drafts. Most years, there is at least one back who is sought after enough to be at the top of the board, but this year that doesn’t exist. It’s easy to assume the teams at the top of the board have a big need at running back, who doesn’t in dynasty leagues, so we’ll see if they get pushed a bit further up the board. In your home leagues, you may see more running backs drafted in the first round than there are in expert rankings.
All-in-all, the headlines are true with this class of rookie running backs. It’s amongst the worst that we’ve seen in the past ten years. There will be some fantasy viable players to come from this draft, but there is no obvious stud or sought-after asset. “This class is an argument in favor of ZeroRB, with so much talent and opportunity available in the 2nd and 3rd round of superflex rookie drafts,” says John Hogue. “Trade back and take multiple shots at this RB class!” When we look back at this class in 365 days, I believe there will be some very interesting values coming from the middle rounds of rookie drafts at running back, similar to last year’s wide receiver group. It is just a matter of finding the right pick!
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