2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: JJ McCarthy, QB Michigan
We are presented with a handful of quarterback prospects to analyze each year. Some prospects have crystal clear profiles and are almost guaranteed success, while others pique our interest, but have red flags. This year, we have both types of profiles, and one player in particular falls into both categories; JJ McCarthy.
McCarthy played three years at the University of Michigan, starting in his sophomore and junior seasons. During those two seasons, the Wolverines only incurred one loss and dominated most opponents. After losing in the first round of the College Football Playoffs in 2022, McCarthy helped get Michigan back into the playoffs and eventually led them to a national championship in 2023.
Usually, a five-star prospect with a national championship under his belt, who was also projected to be taken early in the NFL Draft, would be a locked and loaded rookie pick for dynasty players. However, when it comes to McCarthy, there are some people expressing concerns.
The Stats
Courtesy of Sports Reference
McCarthy didn’t get the starting nod over incumbent Cade McNamara in year one but was used weekly because of his athleticism and playmaking ability.
In year two, McNamara got the boot and it was McCarthy at the helm from then on. McCarthy showed flashes of being a quality quarterback but ultimately wasn’t asked to do too much, only attempting 322 passes. Two things that stood out to me in that 2022 season were McCarthy’s 10.7 IAY (intended air yards) and his 5.5% BTTR (big-time throw rate from Pro Football Focus). I’ve found in my research that those two metrics can show us which prospects deserve our attention regarding the NFL.
Year three didn’t see much more as far as volume, but McCarthy took a step forward in most efficiency metrics, including completion rate, adjusted yards per attempt, and interception rate. While I understand the concerns about the low volume, the truth is that he got better year over year, and flashed high-end ability in both 2022 and 2023.
The Film
I could have chosen a lot of other games to show here, but I felt McCarthy’s game against Alabama was a perfect snapshot of who he is as a prospect.
You’ll notice that he started slow, not connecting too much at the beginning of the game, but also keep in mind that he’s playing against one of the best defenses in the country. His arm strength, ability to escape the pocket, and his ability to throw while on the run are all on display here.
While this game was by no means perfect, it showed that McCarthy has what it takes mentally and physically to make it at the next level. He finished the game completing 63% of his passes for 221 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions (although there was a close call). He also added 25 yards rushing, some of those coming in clutch situations.
This clip showcases all of McCarthy’s strengths and weaknesses, and while I don’t think he’s one hundred percent ready to lead an NFL offense today, I see the flashes of a player who will be able to in the future.
The Measurables
Courtesy of NFL.com.
One of the major concerns people had heading into the NFL Combine was McCarthy’s weight. Listed at 6’3” in college, there were whispers that he may weigh in under 200 pounds. Luckily for us, McCarthy had been hitting the gym hard and tipped the scales at 219 pounds. Weight isn’t always a point of emphasis for QB prospects, but with his rushing ability, it’s nice to see he has the frame to be able to stand up to NFL defenders.
McCarthy didn’t complete every Combine drill, but he did show off his arm strength with a 61 MPH throw, just one MPH behind Joe Milton, who is widely considered to have the strongest arm in the class. Top-end arm strength is just another notch in McCarthy’s belt, in what is becoming a long list of pros for the young prospect.
The Value
Courtesy of Mock Draft Database
McCarthy is now considered a lock for the first round of the NFL Draft, but that wasn’t always the case. Just over a month ago, he was being mocked in the early second round before picking up steam. As of today, there are rumors of him going as early as fifth overall. Now that he’s basically locked into high-end draft capital, dynasty managers can lock him into the first round of superflex rookie drafts.
Courtesy of DLF’s SF Rookie ADP
Along with that rise in projected draft capital has come a rise in rookie ADP. McCarthy has settled in as the QB4 and the seventh overall player in mock drafts, and that is right around where I would feel comfortable drafting him as well.
The Outlook
JJ McCarthy didn’t attempt as many passes as dynasty managers would have liked to see to truly feel comfortable about his profile, but when he did throw, he showed he has the tools to be a high-end NFL player.
As we know, the NFL is starved for quality quarterback play, which is pushing McCarthy into the early first round of mock drafts. Because of that, we as dynasty players can feel comfortable drafting him early in our rookie drafts as well.
I am willing to draft McCarthy as early as pick six in superflex rookie drafts, but I do want to recommend potential drafters have some patience with him. There will be ups and downs as he learns to command an NFL offense, but I believe he will eventually be a high-end starter in the league, especially for fantasy football purposes.
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