Dynasty Perspective Through Advanced Metrics: Wide Receivers
Fantasy football is a game decided by numbers. In this four-part series, I’ll be reviewing advanced player metrics via Player Profiler from the 2023 season, to understand the numbers behind the data, outline a contextual story and provide actionable advice in dynasty.
The third article in the series will focus on wide receivers, analyzing metrics to give a true reflection of performance and expectations moving forward. The previous article on running backs can be found here.
Jordan Addison, WR MIN
- Fantasy Points Per Game: WR31
- Routes Run: WR12
- Targets: WR26
- Target Rate: WR63
- Deep Targets: WR19
- Red Zone Targets: WR14
- Touchdowns: WR5
- Yards Per Route Run: WR53
- Yards Per Reception: WR47
Reflecting on pure fantasy output, Addison delivered a solid rookie season, finishing as a WR3 (WR31) in fantasy points per game. While his routes run and targets were extremely strong, combining the two saw him land as the WR63 in target rate, displaying an inability to command a stronger volume of targets despite spending a high amount of time on the field. Also, it’s worth noting the other key weapons in the Vikings’ offense (Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson) missed time through injury, meaning logically Addison had an easier pathway to volume than a fully healthy offense. There was encouragement in the fact that Addison had excellent deep pass usage and was heavily targeted in the red zone, resulting in a WR5 finish in touchdowns. However, despite this positive usage in key situations, he had a disappointing output in yards per route run and also yards per reception.
Addison had a solid season from a fantasy perspective, however the metrics show an inconsistent season overall given his positive situation from a volume and target competition point of view. I think the concerns at who the Vikings’ quarterback will be and also the fact he’s the third option in the passing game will cap his ceiling. I see a similar career arc to a 90% version of DeVonta Smith – making him overvalued at the WR12 range. However if you can get him later on within the tier, similar to the market at Keep Trade Cut, he has excellent short-term upside to improve his value and give you an option to cash out before Hockenson has recovered fully from his ACL injury.
Addison is currently ranked near his ceiling as the WR12 in dynasty value with DLF, although this is a fluid tier where he is in the WR20 range on other platforms (Credit: DLF Trade Values).
Michael Pittman, WR IND
- Fantasy Points Per Game: WR16
- Targets: WR9
- Routes Run: WR18
- Target Depth (ADoT): WR86
- Red Zone Targets: WR9
- Receptions: WR4
- Yards After Catch: WR10
- Total Route Wins: WR4
- Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: WR11
Truth be told, I’ve never been at or above the dynasty market on Pittman. Despite my past reservations, there is no denying his excellent metrics from 2023. The WR16 in fantasy points per game is solid if you review the one data point, however there is plenty more to be excited about, including him being the WR11 in expected fantasy points per game. Pittman was a top ten wide receiver both in targets and red zone targets, showing consistent volume irrespective of where the Colts’ offense was on the field. He was extremely efficient, registering the fourth most receptions and a very solid WR10 output in yards after catch. In a vacuum he was excellent, showcasing his talent and delivering the WR4 outcome in total route wins, despite only being the WR18 in total routes run. The downside to his metrics is a target depth of WR86 – although this can be attributed to playing most of 2023 with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew.
In 2024, I expect the Colts to re-sign Pittman and build a cornerstone combination with quarterback Anthony Richardson. The Colts’ pace of play was slow under Minshew, however was elite at QB3 pace under Richardson. While there will be concern about a lower pass-to-run ratio with Richardson at the helm, the pace of play helps negate this and Pittman’s metrics are extremely encouraging as he enters his prime at 26. In a similar tier as Addison, I think he is attainable and can be an easy pivot from a younger wide receiver valued similarly if you need fantasy points on a contending roster, while holding flexibility appeal to target in any dynasty startup strategy.
Davante Adams, WR LV
- Fantasy Points Per Game: WR15
- Targets: WR2
- Target Share: WR2
- Target Rate: WR3
- Air Yards: WR3
- Red Zone Targets: WR2
- Catchable Target Rate: WR69
- Total Touchdowns: WR11
- Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: WR5
Adams has dealt with a huge shift in quarterback quality over recent years, going from future Hall of Fame star Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, and in 2023 a cocktail of poor options in Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell – resulting in a WR69 output in catchable target rate for Adams. The good news is the near certainty he will be playing with a significant upgrade in 2024. In other metrics he was outstanding, dominating numerous target metrics, air yards and red zone usage. Positive touchdown regression is incoming after he finished second in red zone targets but was only the WR11 in total touchdowns. Despite a poor situation, Adams was still able to finish as the WR15 in fantasy points per game. Based on an average environment, Adams would have catapulted to the WR5 in expected fantasy points per game, highlighting the elite level of fantasy output still possessed in his profile.
The skeleton key to winning dynasty titles can often be finding the discounted aging veteran who continues to produce like a fantasy stud. Adams fits the mold and gives you a massive advantage over the field for win-now teams, with his current market value in the WR3 range. My advice is to act fast and acquire Adams before he gets the incoming upgrade at quarterback. I’d have no hesitation sending a late 2024 first-round pick on a top-two roster, with the knowledge an early 2024 second is Adams’ price in certain leagues and could be acquired for cheaper.
Adams is clearly on the decline in terms of market value, but still has the talent to finish as an elite-level fantasy producer, making him a value (Credit: DLF ADP Over Time App).
Christian Watson, WR GB
- Fantasy Points Per Game: WR43
- Targets: WR79
- Routes Run: WR94
- Target Depth (ADoT): WR6
- Red Zone Targets: WR36
- Catchable Target Rate: WR91
- Dominator Rating: WR33
- Route Win Rate: WR93
- Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: WR32
One of the best aspects of reviewing advanced metrics is when you have an expectation of a player and the metrics tell you a different story – this is the case for Watson. Despite a strong finish to 2022, he was disappointing last season, yet again battling injury and delivering an underwhelming WR43 fantasy-points-per-game output. When factoring in an average environment this improves to WR32, which isn’t as poor as first expected. Watson was inconsistent, struggling to win routes on a regular basis, with lower targets and routes run due to injury. I was mildly surprised a lot of his metrics fell into the WR3 range – except being WR6 overall in target depth and a resulting WR91 in catchable target rate.
2023 was a year of regression overall for Watson, however his impact was similar to the previous season, receiving opportunity in high-value situations deep and in the red zone. With the Packers having four wide receiver options currently in the top 50 value at the market (Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks), there is a risk as multiple players are unlikely to achieve their value. Watson will be available at a fair discount after the 2024 rookies enter the market. While I’m not totally in on Watson, I think there are certain leagues where he can be purchased at a value and be used as a boom-bust WR in flex spots within deeper lineups.
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