Dynasty Perspective Through Advanced Metrics: Running Backs
Fantasy football is a game decided by numbers. In this four-part series, I’ll be reviewing advanced player metrics via Player Profiler from the 2023 season, to understand the numbers behind the data, outline a contextual story and provide actionable advice in dynasty.
The second article in the series will focus on running back, analyzing metrics to give a true reflection of performance and expectations moving forward. The previous article on quarterback can be found here.
Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
- Fantasy Points Per Game: RB13
- Opportunity Share: RB17
- Fantasy Points Per Opportunity: RB29
- Target Share: RB36
- Yards Per Carry: RB29
- Yards Per Touch: RB25
- Breakaway Run Rate: RB37
- Yards Created Per Touch: RB31
- Defenders In The Box: RB49
One of the most polarizing players in dynasty football, Taylor has endured two injury-hit seasons on the bounce since his RB1 finish in 2021. Despite missing seven games through multiple injuries, he produced the RB13 finish in fantasy points per game. On the surface this looks solid, given the context of battling injuries and playing the majority of the year with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. Further analysis shows Taylor was a volume running back, struggling with efficiency and explosiveness. His target share in the passing game was poor, despite playing with a pocket passer. In my view his least impressive metrics were the combination of RB37 in breakaway run rate despite being the RB49 for defenders in the box – lack of explosion in an optimal running environment.
We are entering the unknown in 2024. Rookie dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson was on pace for double-digit rushing touchdowns before we could truly see how the Colts’ offense would look in conjunction with Taylor. The fact that Taylor and Richardson played a total of two snaps together all season provides huge uncertainty over how this offense will project in 2024. In the last decade we’ve not seen a talent of Taylor’s paired with a double-digit rushing touchdown at quarterback.
With Taylor valued as a top-five dynasty running back, my view is the price is too high given his recent output/injury history and potential capped rushing touchdown upside. Sell Taylor now. He’s 25 years old and this could be the last opportunity to sell at peak value – if I can get a first-round draft pick plus a placeholder veteran like Aaron Jones (who could provide similar fantasy numbers to Taylor in 2024), I’m making the deal.
The recent history of running back fantasy performance in double-digit rushing touchdown quarterback-led offenses provides scepticism for Taylor (Credit: NFL.com and FantasyPros).
De’Von Achane, RB MIA
- Fantasy Points Per Game: RB5
- Opportunity Share: RB41
- Total Touchdowns: RB9
- Fantasy Points Per Opportunity: RB1
- Target Share: RB19
- Yards Per Route Run: RB17
- Yards Per Touch: RB1
- Breakaway Run Rate: RB1
- Run Blocking Rating: RB1
An absolute fantasy star when healthy, Achane provided an explosive rookie season – finishing as the RB5 in fantasy points per game, aided in the main by finishing the RB9 in total touchdowns (only appeared in 11/17 games due to injury). While his opportunity share was low at RB41, it helped keep him fresh and maximize his fantasy points per opportunity, which Achane led the league as the RB1. In the receiving game he was solid, registering the RB19 in target share and RB17 in yards per route run. Coming back to his explosiveness, Achane was the RB1 in breakaway run rate and yards per touch, although aided by the best run blocking in the league.
While durability and touchdown regression are obvious concerns for Achane, there is no doubt he had an impressive rookie season and projects well moving forward. The situation in Miami is perfect – split backfield, great scheme fit, and lack of elite weapons outside of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Achane is fairly priced as a top-eight running back in dynasty. He’s clearly been a major boost as an RB2 for dynasty managers who took him in rookie drafts last year. In dynasty startups, he’s a volatile RB1 to roster, where you have to think of unique builds such as the hero RB approach, where you’re getting his ceiling and have plenty of late-round cover to minimize risk.
Tyjae Spears, RB TEN
- Fantasy Points Per Game: RB41
- Opportunity Share: RB47
- Targets: RB9
- Receiving Yards: RB11
- Fantasy Points Per Opportunity: RB13
- Target Share: RB7
- Breakaway Run Rate: RB5
- Yards Per Touch: RB6
- Yards Created Per Touch: RB5
Jaylen Warren, RB PIT
- Fantasy Points Per Game: RB31
- Carries: RB36
- Red Zone Touches: RB38
- Receptions: RB5
- Total Touchdowns: RB36
- Yards Per Reception: RB31
- Yards Per Touch: RB7
- Breakaway Run Rate: RB3
- Yards Created Per Touch: RB3
I’ve decided to group Spears and Warren together, who despite having a different set of metrics highlighted, both have followed a similar pattern with their dynasty ADP over the last six months. In 2023, both shared a similar role in their respective offenses, the change-of-pace back which specializes in the passing game. Warren had the better fantasy points per game output, due to overall volume and greater share of his respective split backfield.
Tyjae Spears and Jaylen Warren have shared a similar journey in dynasty ADP throughout the 2023 season (Credit: DLF Dynasty ADP Comparison).
Spears had a limited role behind bell-cow running back Derrick Henry, but made the most of his opportunity, delivering excellent usage in the passing game and explosiveness with his touches, ranking as an RB1 in several metrics. Warren’s role was slightly different, where he was receiving a greater share of backfield touches with Najee Harris. The results were similar to Spears. He was explosive as a runner and a standout in passing game usage, however his being the RB31 in yards per reception indicates it was more about volume than efficiency.
Overall, Warren’s ceiling is capped with the usage of Harris in high-value situations in the red zone, while Spears’ outlook will be tied to the Titans’ off-season plans to add talent to the backfield. Both their teams have new coaching staff, so it will be interesting to see if their 2023 usage remains consistent moving into 2024.
Purely based on the market with Spears as a high-end RB2 I’d be happy to cash out for a late 2024 first-round pick. If I could get an early 2024 second-round pick for Warren I’m making the deal. Both players have a wide range of outcomes and their situations are fluid, however this time of the off-season I’m always happy to convert running back to a liquid asset of draft capital or reduce risk by switching to a wide receiver. I’d potentially be happy to buy back into either once rosters are set post-draft, or even a slight premium during the season once their role is established in new situations.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
