Dynasty Perspective Through Advanced Metrics: Quarterbacks
Fantasy football is a game decided by numbers. In this four-part series, I’ll be reviewing advanced player metrics via Player Profiler from the 2023 season, to understand the numbers behind the data, outline a contextual story and provide actionable advice in dynasty.
The first article in the series will focus on quarterback, analyzing metrics to give a true reflection of performance and expectations moving forward.
Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
- Fantasy Points Per Game: QB11
- Pass Attempts: QB3
- Money Throws: QB21
- Air Yards Per Attempt: QB33
- True Completion %: QB1
- Deep Ball Completion: QB33
- Drops: QB1
- Rush Yards: QB7
- Rush Touchdowns: QB38
Mahomes delivered his worst-ever season in fantasy points per game, despite finishing third overall in pass attempts. Reviewing the metrics, it reveals his money throws (passes requiring skill/athleticism in clutch moments) were below average, however factoring in the supporting cast, he was number one in true completion percentage. In 2023, we saw a different Mahomes, with a lowly QB33 in yards per attempt and deep ball completion – the offense was tweaked to focus on the shorter pass game due to the deep pass game inefficiency. An interesting factor is Mahomes was seventh in rush yards but managed zero rush touchdowns. He is primed to bounce back in that department in 2024, which would raise his dynasty floor and ceiling.
With the addition of an efficient deep threat at wide receiver, plus the natural positive touchdown regression from the rushing game, Mahomes would be in position to maintain his challenge for the dynasty QB1 spot in 2024 – although Travis Kelce’s impending retirement decision will be key to Mahomes’ short-term value. The macro-market remains high on Mahomes, making him an extremely safe asset from a risk perspective. My personal preference is to aim for the upside of dual-threat ability, which results in Mahomes being at the bottom of my tier-one quarterbacks.
Mahomes has never been off of the QB1 overall spot in dynasty ADP for more than one month throughout last year (Credit: DLF ADP History).
Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
- Fantasy Points Per Game: QB3
- Team Pass Plays Per Game: QB31
- Pace Of Play: QB28
- Money Throws: QB2
- Passing Touchdowns: QB11
- Yards Per Pass Attempt: QB4
- Fantasy Points Per Dropback: QB1
- Rush Yards: QB1
- Rush Touchdowns: QB4
The recently crowned 2023 NFL MVP, Jackson had a stellar season in dynasty, finishing as the QB3 in fantasy points per game. There was plenty of hype regarding new offensive coordinator Todd Monken unlocking Jackson’s pass game ceiling, however an injury to star tight end Mark Andrews and the Ravens dominating in most games led to a slow pace of play and lower overall pass volume. When Jackson was tasked with a neutral or pass game script he was excellent – QB2 in money throws, QB4 in yards per pass attempt and QB1 in fantasy points per dropback. The core of Jackson’s dynasty value is via the rushing game, where he continued to excel – finishing as the QB1 in rush yards and room to grow as the QB4 in rushing touchdowns.
Jackson delivered a strong season last year, with significant growth opportunity in overall passing volume and positive touchdown regression in the rushing game for 2024. The future is exciting for Jackson, with him tied to promising rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers and the return to health of Andrews. Jackson is considered a borderline top-tier dynasty asset by the consensus, however the combination of talent and situation gives me supreme confidence in elevating him to a top-three dynasty asset overall.
Dak Prescott, QB DAL
- Fantasy Points Per Game: QB4
- Team Pass Plays Per Game: QB7
- Passing Yards: QB3
- Money Throws: QB1
- Danger Plays: QB22
- Passing Touchdowns: QB1
- Deep Ball Completion %: QB4
- Pressured Completion %: QB1
- Rush Yards Per Game: QB28
Recency bias often provides an opportunity to win big in your dynasty leagues. Many will focus on the Cowboys’ embarrassing playoff loss to the Packers when making judgment on Prescott’s 2023 season. Reflecting back with an open mind, he was impressive, finishing as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, considering the Cowboys were seventh in team pass plays per game and Prescott was QB28 in rush yards per game. From a passing perspective he was outstanding, finishing as the QB1 in money throws, passing touchdowns and pressured completion percentage. Add in the passing yardage output and deep ball efficiency was excellent. The cherry on top is that despite the significant passing volume and output, Prescott was only QB22 in danger plays, showing incredible effectiveness as a passer.
With superstar wide receiver CeeDee Lamb locked in as his number-one target and leading an offense including promising tight end Jake Ferguson, Prescott is a player to be interested in. The market is all over the place on him, here at DLF he is valued at QB8, whereas the market at Keep Trade Cut values him as the QB13. Acquiring at the latter cost is highly appealing, where you can make easy pivots down to Prescott from higher-valued younger assets who will struggle to deliver Prescott’s fantasy output over the next few years.
Prescott is valued almost identically to Tua Tagovailoa, an easy pivot for contenders in dynasty to add points to their lineup (Credit: DLF Trade Analyzer).
Brock Purdy, QB SF
- Fantasy Points Per Game: QB13
- Pass Attempts: QB20
- Red Zone Attempts: QB9
- Pass Yards: QB5
- Air Yards: QB16
- Yards Per Pass Attempt: QB1
- Deep Ball Completion %: QB1
- Play Action Completion %: QB1
- Red Zone Completion %: QB2
The macro-economy loves an underdog story – this epitomizes Purdy, who has been on an amazing journey from the last player drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft to becoming a perennial contender in the NFC. Despite the hysteria, there are still doubters throwing shade and proclaiming Purdy to be a system quarterback. Advanced metrics back up this theory to an extent, however Purdy deserves credit for taking advantage of his facilitative situation.
He was QB13 in fantasy points per game despite finishing QB20 in pass attempts. He is surrounded by weapons who are excellent after the catch, inflating his numbers and fantasy performance. This is supported by the contrasting output of finishing as QB5 in passing yards despite a middle-of-the-pack output for air yards and the QB1 in yards per pass attempt. Purdy delivered excellent efficiency, and was the best quarterback in the league at deep ball and play action completion percentage, in addition to being the QB2 in red zone completion percentage. Logically it makes sense, with the league’s best running back in Christian McCaffrey and a plethora of solid weapons in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme.
Valued on the QB1/QB2 cusp, Purdy is a solid not spectacular option in dynasty. In my view he struggles as the quarterback outside of San Francisco, however the rookie deal and combination of system and weapons make him appealing in the short-term, with the expectation he’s a great QB2 as opposed to a weaker QB1. Think carefully when deciding your quarterback combination in superflex leagues, pairing Purdy with a high-ceiling quarterback such as Anthony Richardson is the optimal move for a balanced approach in dynasty.
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