Dynasty Decision: Joe Mixon
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Joe Mixon, RB HOU
Since being drafted, Mixon has been a fantasy stalwart, finishing as a top-13 back in five of seven seasons. However, after a very stable first seven years of his career, it all changed this off-season when he was traded to the Houston Texans. Will this new landing spot continue to allow him to produce for fantasy, or will his career peter out, and his days of fantasy relevancy now be in the rear-view mirror?
Previous Performance
Mixon was part of the phenomenal 2017 running back draft class and produced some impressive numbers as a rookie. However, splitting a backfield with Giovani Bernard meant he didn’t see the overall volume to produce consistently as a fantasy option.
Heading into the 2018 season, Mixon saw the lion’s share of the work and, despite playing only 14 games, finished as the RB9 overall. He followed up the breakout campaign with a challenging 2019 season as the Bengals struggled greatly. The team finished with a paltry two wins, and the offense struggled to put up points. Once you consider that, the overall RB13 season wasn’t too disappointing. In 2020, Mixon suffered a foot sprain, which held him out of ten games and meant his 2020 campaign never really got off the ground.
Things took a big U-turn in 2021. The Bengals’ offense, now led by Joe Burrow and with Ja’Marr Chase in place, became one of the more potent in the league, and Mixon took full advantage. He posted three consecutive top-12 seasons, with more than 1,000 total yards and nine touchdowns in each season.
Situation and Usage
Following the conclusion of the 2023 season, the Bengals announced they were going to move on from the veteran running back. However, the Texans swooped in before he could be released and sent a conditional seventh-round pick to the veteran back.
Having left one of the more potent offenses in the league, you would expect a downturn in offensive potential; however, Mixon once again finds himself in one of the more high-powered offenses led by sophomore quarterback CJ Stroud. In 2023, despite possessing a potent passing attack, the Texans still wanted to establish the run, rushing the ball on 40.89% of plays. However, despite this willingness to run the ball, they finished 29th, averaging a paltry 3.7 yards per attempt.
Mixon should again be the true lead back in Houston and see north of a 60% opportunity share with minimal competition for touches. The Texans’ offensive line is not elite, but the sheer volume of receiving talent with Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell should open up enough room for Mixon to be remarkably efficient on the ground. Mixon may struggle in the passing game. He has never been a prolific receiver, but over the past three years, he has increased his usage in the receiving game. The Texans targeted the running backs at a meager rate. Their 12.6% target share to the position was 31st in the league in 2023.
Mixon will likely see a similar overall volume to what he saw with the Bengals over the past three seasons. However, there may be a lean towards more rushing attempts and fewer targets.
Contract
As part of the trade to the Texans, they signed Mixon to a new three-year $25.5m contract. This has given Mixon significantly more security than the previous contract he was playing on. In 2025, the Texans would face a $8m dead cap hit if they released him and would only realize a $1.5m cap saving. This means he is likely to be the lead back in Houston, not just for 2024 but also for 2025. After 2025, the Texans could save $8.5m by moving on from the veteran back, so I would view this as a two-year contract, and it is unlikely he will play under the 2026 contract.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB23 in January ADP and the 104th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a single future second in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
In dynasty, there is an obsession with age and a chase to grab the shiny new thing. However, the running back position has such a short shelf life that I view it much more through a redraft lens than other positions. I am likelier to chase instant production and worry less about potential re-sale value for any asset. A player like Mixon sees a significant drop in their value while still having the potential to produce solid and reliable fantasy production.
For the price of a single second-round pick, Mixon represents excellent value if you’re chasing production. He will likely produce at least RB2 numbers once, if not twice, over the next two seasons. The chances of a second-round pick hitting those numbers at any point in their career are significantly reduced. As a contender, if you can add Mixon as your RB2 or a potential flex play, you will likely be in a great position. You need to understand that he is a declining asset, and you will not see any resale value, but as a production play, it makes too much sense.
If you’re not looking to compete in 2024 then Mixon is wasted on your roster. However, now is the wrong time to be selling him. You need to be trying to sell him either just before the start of the season or during the early part of the season when people are in point-scoring mode. You may be able to get back more than a single second-round pick.
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