Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Nico Collins
One of the most fun and frustrating parts of the off-season is trying to figure out what is news and what isn’t. My personal favorites are the: “he’s in the best shape of his life” puff pieces we get every year after a player has a lackluster season or hasn’t reached their potential for yet another year. When a coach starts pumping up the backup running back is it because it is deserved or is it because he wants to motivate the starter to put in more effort? When a GM says they aren’t accepting any calls about trading a player, does that mean they intend to actually keep him or are they just playing hard to get to drive up the price? Unfortunately there is never really a way to know the answers to these questions, which is why you will see most analysts, content creators, or advice-givers will tell you to ignore all the “coach speak” that comes across our social media timelines.
So how do we know what teams and their front offices are really thinking? Not by what they say but by what they do. Words can be used for any amount of reasons but when a team takes action they are usually telling us what they were thinking all along. The first action a team can make during the off-season that tells us how they truly feel is the draft. You will learn just how much they like a prospect or just how much faith they have in their incumbent quarterback by seeing who and when they draft. The second action is giving players money. You can see through the length and amount of a contract just what a front office thinks of a player. If they are willing to give them what it takes to keep them on the team, it is very clear they want that player there.
We are going to talk about a wide receiver who falls into the second course of action we just mentioned. After finishing as PPR WR15 in points per game last season and after the team brought in a high-profile free agent wide receiver to add to the already dynamic offense, the front office gave our guy a three-year $72,750,000 extension. I don’t know about you but if someone gave me a $17,000,000 signing bonus and average annual salary of $24,250,000 I would think they believed in me and wanted me to be a big part of the team. The player I am talking about is third-year breakout…
Nico Collins, WR HOU
The Houston Texans wide receiver room got a little more crowded when the team brought in free agent Stefon Diggs to add to their rookie sensation, Tank Dell, and our subject wide receiver. While it is still tough to try and imagine just how the passing distribution will play out, it felt like a sigh of relief for all of my Collins shares when the front office backed up the money truck and dumped its contents on his front step. While it might not seem like a big move, this action took the newly paid wide receiver from WR18, player 49 overall, in May ADP up to WR14, player 37 overall, in July ADP. Moving up a full round in superflex ADP in a spot where there are still plenty of quarterbacks left on the board is no small feat but we aren’t here to talk about drafts, we are here to talk about trades, so let’s go to the DLF Trade Finder and Trade Analyzer to find some Collins trades to see if the rest of the community feels as secure as I do.
12 team, 1QB, PPR, start 10, IDP.
I was honestly surprised to see Collins and Kenneth Walker this close in the analyzer. With almost two full rounds of ADP between them I thought the wide receiver would have a bigger lead than he does. Even still, I would easily send away Walker and a mid/late second-round rookie pick for the upside that Collins brings to the table. Kenneth Walker is fine. He will score a decent amount of points but if you thought Collins had a murky situation, we have Walker sharing a backfield with a second-round running back (Zach Charbonnet) who started to see an increase in carries as the season went on and a brand new coach and front office with no way of knowing how they feel about the two running backs. Honestly, even before the contract extension, I would make this move to the wide receiver. Even with IDP put into the mix these picks aren’t enough to make me waiver on that feeling. Further down the Trade Finder I found a trade that was Walker for Collins straight up. Even more of a victory there.
14 team, superflex, PPR, start 9.
No matter the situation you find your dynasty team in, I don’t see the upside of sending a young, breakout wide receiver for a random future first-round pick. An important thing to remember also is that when you are taking on the team’s rookie pick with which you are making the trade, you are making that team better by giving them the player. Konami Code Dynasty will score more points this season with Collins on their roster and not having given up any players in the deal. So even if you wanted to try and guess where you thought the pick might land, which is a very dangerous game in the first place, you need to push it back a bit after adding the player to their team. Regardless of the player you draft with that pick, if you hold onto it for that long, I think you would be thrilled to see a season like Collins just produced.
12 team, superflex, PPR, start 10.
This trade feels like overthinking it to me. I get the thinking behind selling a player with hype and cashing in for points. The issue with that is Collins was scoring points, and a lot of them. This is also three players all on new teams and in curious situations. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has come out and said he intends to platoon his backfield, taking away the workhorse role we are used to seeing Josh Jacobs have. Keenan Allen is now on the Chicago Bears with incumbent DJ Moore and rookie Rome Odunze to contend with for targets. Also worth mentioning is that those targets will be coming from a rookie quarterback. Although Caleb Williams is a very high-rated prospect, it is still rare to see a rookie quarterback produce any top 20 fantasy wide receivers no less feed the multiple talented wide receivers he will have in front of him. Zack Moss absolutely showed out for the Colts when Jonathan Taylor was hurt but now he joins the Bengals backfield where Chase Brown was seeing more and more work as the season went along and seemed to find the favor of the coaching staff. That seems like a whole lot of maybe to sell a young, hyped wide receiver.
Dynasty fantasy football is hard. There are so many factors that come into play in every aspect, who to draft, who to trade for/away, who to start every week, etc. It makes things a little easier when teams can show us what they are thinking to take some of the doubt out of our minds. This shouldn’t completely make the decision for you but it should definitely be a big factor in the internal debates you make about your roster.
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