2024 Dynasty Division Outlook: NFC North IDP
Last year, we brought you a new series covering each NFL division’s IDP dynasty fantasy football outlook. We are back at it again this year. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some cool predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!
Chicago Bears
Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads.
The Chicago Bears improved their defense in 2023 and were ranked tenth in the NFL. The defense was ranked first against the run but was susceptible to the pass, giving up over 237 yards a game. The Bears started rough defensively in 2023 but became solid by the end of the year. In seven of the last 12 games, they held opponents to under 20 points.
The defensive line was improved with the addition of Montez Sweat last year but will have two new starters this year. Justin Jones and Yannick Ngakoue are replaced by Gervon Dexter and Demarcus Walker.
The Bears employed a 4-2 nickel for over half of their defensive packages. Those linebacker spots should be secured by Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards who both had over 800 snaps last year on defense. Jack Sanborn should continue to be brought in when the scheme changes to 4-3 as he had 412 snaps last year.
Jaylon Johnson had a great 2023 that led to him signing a four-year, 76-million-dollar contract. He was only targeted 50 times and had a 91-coverage rating according to Pro Football Focus. Eddie Jackson is replaced with Kevin Byard, who looks to bounce back from his struggles when traded to the Eagles last season. Four of the five starters return from last year’s secondary.
Detroit Lions
Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads.
The Lions’ defense was plagued with poor pass defense throughout the season. The main reason they did have success was their excellent rush defense. The Lions were second against the run and opponents had the third-fewest attempts per game. While the pass defense was 31st and opponents had the 12th most pass attempts per game.
The main goal was to improve the backend of the defense and they will have three out of five new starters in the secondary. They drafted Terrion Arnold out of Alabama in the first round and brought in free agent Carlton Davis and Ifeatu Melifonwu takes over for the departing CJ Gardner-Johnson. There is a talent upgrade and should allow Aaron Glenn to use more schemes with the ability to play more one-on-one coverage.
The rush defense should only get better as they have brought in DJ Reader from the Bengals to take over at the NT for Benito Jones. Aidan Hutchinson gets more help on the other side with the signing of Marcus Davenport from the Saints. Before last year, Davenport’s pass-rushing grades had been over 70 the past four years. He will be taking over for John Cominsky, who has yet to hit the 70 rating in his career.
Green Bay Packers
Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads.
The Packers’ defense was ranked 20th in 2023 but had a hard time defending against the run. They were in the bottom five in rush yards per game but finished in the top ten in passing yards per game. One thing that helped them was that they did well in scoring defense, only allowing 20.6 a game which ranked tenth in the NFL. Jeff Hafley will move from college to the pros as the new defensive coordinator of the Packers.
Rashan Gary returned to form after the injury in 2022 and had double-digit sacks in two of his last three years. Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt return from last year to anchor the middle of the line. Hoping to sure up the rushing defense, they will switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense. This will mean Preston Smith will move from outside linebacker to having his hand in the ground more often. Second-year player, Luke Van Ness will be involved in the rotation at edge as well.
RASHAN GARY pic.twitter.com/0CFKRDME3O
— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) November 23, 2023
Quay Walker will return as one of the starters at linebacker but the other two linebackers to join him could be new. The Packers used their second and third-round picks on linebackers Edgerin Cooper and Ty’Ron Hopper. Isaiah McDuffie will also figure into the rotation as he had 63 total tackles last year.
After missing most of last year, Eric Stokes will return to play the other side of Jaire Alexander. The Safety position is remade from last year. Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford, and Jonathan Owens are no longer on the team. The Packers brought in Xavier McKinney from the Giants and drafted Javon Bullard from Georgia. McKinney was up and down for the Giants but had his best year in coverage in 2023 with a rating of 91.2 per PFF. Both safeties are good tacklers, so this should help fortify the suspect run defense of 2023.
Minnesota Vikings
Depth chart courtesy of Ourlads.
The Minnesota Vikings finished as the 18th-best defense in 2023 and a big problem they had was the lack of pressure. They were 29th out of 32 teams in pressure efficiency. The defense was improved under Brian Flores. The Vikings were the 31st team in yards allowed per game in 2022.
In the 3-4 scheme, both Jonathan Bullard and Harrison Phillips are back to start on the line. The other spot will be taken by Jerry Tillery who replaced Dean Lowry. Tillery does not provide much in the sack department as he only has 14 in five seasons.
The Vikings will have to find a way to replace Danielle Hunter who had 18 sacks last season and 55 hurries. To help the linebacking corps they brought in Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. Both had their career high in sacks last year but only Greenard has ever had double-digit sacks. Jordan Hicks is gone in free agency so Blake Cashman will join Ivan Pace Jr on the inside.
The Vikings brought in Shaq Griffin to help shore up the other cornerback position opposite Byron Murphy Jr. In two years, Akayla Evans has had coverage grades of 40 and 52. Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum return as the two starting safeties. The question will be whether Smith can keep up his production or whether it will fall off.
Without Hunter, the defense has questions about how they will get pressure. I am surprised the Vikings did not try to bring in more talent to allow Flores more versatility on the defense.
Positional Group Rankings
Interior Defensive Line
- Detroit Lions A-
- Chicago Bears B-
- Minnesota Vikings B-
- Green Bay Packers E+
This was a tough position group to rank because they did not stand out. I decided to go with the Lions because I think DJ Reader is the best player in this group.
I like Dexter a lot and if he can stay motivated, he could bring a lot of pash rushing to that position for the Bears. Andrew Billings was also solid in clogging the middle last year.
Harrison Philips is getting older and had a down year in 2023 but the addition of Jerry Tillery should help to solidify the interior.
Wyatt and Clark struggled in tackling and rush defense last year. They have talent and maybe with the change of scheme it will help. But as of now, I have them ranked last in this position group.
Edge
- Detroit Lions A-
- Green Bay Packers B+
- Chicago Bears B
- Minnesota Vikings C+
This group has a lot of talent in the group. There is a big-time pass rusher on every team except the Vikings, but Dallas Turner could be that one day. It comes down to who is the second pass rusher on the team.
The Lions got the nod because Aidan Hutchinson is the best of the group, and the addition of Davenport should limit some of the double teams. Davenport has not gotten the production, but he is a step up from Cominsky.
Aidan Hutchinson does it all pic.twitter.com/4YzGNAuMXj
— Crunch Time Sports (@officialctpod) June 15, 2024
I put the Packers ahead of the Bears because I would put Preston Smith over Demarcus Walker. I know Walker has steadily improved each year, but he is still not at the level of Smith even at his age. Smith has had double-digit sacks in the last two years.
The Vikings have a lot of unknowns with Hunter gone. Turner is a great prospect, but we have to see how he develops in the NFL. Van Ginkel and Greenard had good years but have not consistently been able to get sacks each year.
Linebacker
- Detroit Lions B+
- Los Angeles Chargers B
- Green Bay Packers C+
- Minnesota Vikings C-
This was a tight one between the Bears and the Lions, but I like the overall depth with the Lions. Anzalone continues to be a tackling machine and Campbell had a stellar rookie year with less than nine percent miss tackle rate. For the Bears Edwards was stellar with 112 tackles but Edmunds took a step back after leaving Buffalo. All his grades across the board decreased on PFF.
The Packers have Walker who improved his rush defense but took a little step back in pass rushing and coverage. They bring in two good rookies, Cooper and Hopper, who hopefully will help improve the rush defense. Both rookies will be in a rotation with Isaiah McDuffie who saw an increased role last year. If the rookies pan out this unit could have a lot of potential for the future.
The Vikings lost Jordan Hicks who was their third leading tackler from a year ago. Pace Jr showed good things and they also brought in Cashman from Houston. Cashman had his first year with over 500 snaps last year, so we will see if he can continue to improve. This unit does not have a ton of production or experience and will need to mesh as a group since the talent is less than the rest of the division.
Cornerback
- Green Bay Packers A-
- Detroit Lions B+
- Chicago Bears B
- Minnesota Vikings C
Every team in this division has at least one good corner. If Eric Stokes comes back healthy, the Packers have the best two starting corners in Alexander and Stokes.
The Bears and Lions were very tight for second place. I think Jaylon Johnson is better than Carlton Davis, but I have a better feeling about the other corners in Detroit. Terrion Arnold should be a solid corner on the opposite side of Davis and Brian Branch was a good rookie. On the other hand, I am not as sold on Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon.
Byron Murphy is solid at one corner, but I am not a big fan of Shaq Griffin. So that is why they have a lower grade. If Griffin can get back to his early play in Seattle, this unit could move up above the Bears.
Safety
- Chicago Bears B+
- Minnesota Vikings B
- Green Bay Packers B-
- Detroit Lions C
I believe the Bears have the best tandem of safeties with Brisker and the addition of Byard. It did not work out in Philadelphia last year, but I put that more on the scheme. Brisker continues to develop and decreased his missed tackle rate from 14 to eight percent.
I give the edge to the Vikings because they return both starters and they have more experience than the Packers. Harrison Smith had his first season without an interception in seven years but is still a ball hawk and very effective. Along with Bynum and Metellus, the Vikings have a good rotation and depth. The Packers improved their safety position but with a rookie in the backend, it will take time to develop that chemistry.
The Lions are last for me in this position group. They did bring in new corners to improve the secondary but did not improve the safety position. Better corner play could improve safety play but I am in a wait-and-see position.
Divisional Predictions
MVP: Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE DET
This is the obvious pick, but I do not see who else it could be. The only other player I could see in the conversation is Montez Sweat because he had eight sacks in nine games when traded to the Bears last year. Hutchinson raised his production over his rookie year and could be even more efficient with help on the defense.
Courtesy of PFF
LVP: Shaq Griffin, CB MIN
I just have not been impressed with Griffin ever since he left Seattle. I think he could be the target for much of the season for the Vikings and give up big plays.
Most Improved: Gervon Dexter Sr, DT CHI
Justin Jones had 300 more snaps than Dexter last year but only had one more sack and seven more pressures. With the extra snaps, I see Dexter having a huge jump in production in his second year.
Biggest Steal: Josh Metellus, S MIN
Metellus had his best year in 2023 finally being utilized in Flores’ scheme. He went from 261 to 1063 snaps. In our rankings, he is DB22 but was top ten in tackles amongst defensive backs and finished sixth in fantasy points amongst that position group last year.
Josh Metellus got a pick on it pic.twitter.com/6hDPgonSp9
— Tyler Forness (@TheRealForno) June 10, 2024
Biggest Bust: Brian Branch, S DET
Don’t get me wrong, Branch is a great player and will be a big part of the Detroit defense. Last year he had eight games where he scored under double digits in fantasy. He is currently DB4 in our rankings but finished last year as DB29. He will improve but with a better overall secondary, I think he might see fewer tackles, and this ranking is too high.
Wait For It: Dallas Turner, EDGE MIN
Opening day Turner may not start over Van Ginkel or Greenard, but he will be heavily involved. With the loss of Hunter, they need pass rushing and Turner was a monster off the edge getting an 89.3 grade from PFF.
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