Dynasty Decision: Cooper Kupp
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
Many reading this may think Cooper Kupp was a one-year wonder who blew up for an incredible 2021 season in which he won the receiving triple crown and was the clear-cut WR1 on the season. However, outside of that, he has been remarkably consistent. He finished as a top 25 wide receiver every season, in which he played 13 games. However, as we head into his age 31 season and with a new young stud playing alongside him in Puka Nacua, can we expect fantasy stardom from Kupp? Or should you be getting out for whatever you can?
Previous Performance
Kupp was a somewhat unheralded draft prospect, although he posted some eye-popping raw numbers through college, including several FCS records. The fact he was doing it for Eastern Washington in the Big Sky conference meant his draft stock was always going to be a little lower than the raw numbers suggested. He ended up being drafted in the third round by the Rams and immediately impacted the field, seeing just shy of 100 targets, which led the team and the overall WR25 for fantasy. 2018 was a tougher year for Kupp as the team acquired Brandin Cooks in a trade, and Kupp battled injuries, meaning he only saw the field for eight regular season contests and struggled for raw fantasy production.
2019 was a massive breakout for Kupp as he posted incredible numbers on the way to an overall WR5 finish. He combined incredible volume with impressive efficiency, posting a yards per route run number of 2.08 despite running 557 routes. After a down year in 2020 when the Rams decided to move on from Jared Goff, Kupp exploded in 2021 after the acquisition of Matthew Stafford to play Quarterback. 2021 will go down as one of the greatest wide receiver seasons ever as the Rams marched on to win a Superbowl. Kupp averaged 25.8 PPG during the fantasy season. That is an absurd number, and there were more than 10 PPG between him and the WR12 Mike Evans, who averaged 15.7 PPG. The gap between Cooper Kupp at WR1 and Mike Evans at WR12 was the same as that between Mike Evans at WR12 and Jalen Guyton at WR104. He was an absolute fantasy cheat code, and it was hard not to win a title if you were rostering Kupp that season.
Unfortunately, the last two seasons have been challenging for Kupp, and injuries have significantly impacted him. Despite the injuries, he still averaged 22.4 PPG (WR2) in 2022 and 13.7 PPG (WR25) in 2023.
Situation and Usage
The combination of Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, and any wide receiver can be fantasy gold. McVay seems to be somewhat of a wide receiver whisperer and can bring production out of anywhere. The addition of Puka Nacua in the 2023 draft will undoubtedly eat into the volume Cooper Kupp sees. However, Kupp has shown he can post incredible fantasy numbers while sharing the offense with another volume-heavy receiver.
Kupp sees unique usage in the McVay offense, where he lines up out of the slot 60% of the time and has a relatively low aDOT of around 8. However, because of the volume and the mind meld he seems to have with Stafford, he can still be a fantasy superstar.
Last season, the numbers dropped, but they are skewed slightly as Kupp was playing through injury. During the final five weeks of the season, Kupp produced as the WR9 in PPG, showing that he can still produce for fantasy. If we see a fully healthy Kupp in 2023, there is no reason he shouldn’t again produce league-winning fantasy numbers despite sharing an offense with Puka Nacua.
Contract
Kupp signed a three-year $80m extension following that phenomenal 2021 season and has three years remaining on the contract. The cap hits looked very large when he signed the contract, given they are at $29.8m in 2024, $29.8m in 2025, and $27.3m in 2026. However, with Justin Jefferson signing an extension averaging $35m a year, the Kupp numbers now seem more palatable. In 2025, he carries a dead cap hit of $22.2m, so unless something drastically goes wrong this season, Kupp will likely be on the Rams under his current contract next season. 2026 is a little more up in the air as the Rams would save almost $20m by moving on from Kupp; given he will be 33 at that point, it may be the end of the run for Kupp unless he can defy the age curve and keep producing.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR35 in June ADP and the 60th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a random 2025 1st or the equivalent of the 1.11 in the 2024 draft in one quarterback league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
The steep decline in value for Kupp is quite alarming. 18 Months ago, Kupp was the WR6 and a first-round startup pick, and now he is languishing on the 5th/6th round turn in startups. Injuries and some disappointing production will do that, as well as the advancing age. However, as mentioned above, when he’s been healthy and on the field, Kupp is still an incredible fantasy asset who has incubated value given his contract for at least the next two seasons. It is a win-now move for sure given his age but I would rather roster Cooper Kupp than several of the other win-now players in his value range such as Mike Evans or Stefon Diggs.
If you’re a contender and can send a couple of second-round picks to take a swing on Kupp’s upside, that is a move you need to make. His value is down due to the stretch in the middle of last season when he played through injury. Had he produced top-ten points per game numbers as he did down the stretch of the season, then he would be valued about ten to fifteen spots higher in ADP.
If you’re looking towards the future and looking at rebuilding, the instinct is to trade away Kupp and scoop up a future draft pick or two. However, if he starts the season well, as we know he has the potential to do, then his value will spike, and you will likely be able to sell him for significantly more to a contender during the season. It is a risk because his value will drop even further if he starts slow. However, the reward is well worth the risk, in my opinion.
The dynasty community is very age obsessed, and for a good reason, as it can be crippling to be left holding a declining asset. However, there is a point towards the end of a player’s career where the price drops so that one good season will pay back the cost to acquire. Kupp is in that price range where a single top-24 season in 2024 would more than pay back what you have to trade away to acquire him. You need to set fire to any resell value and accept you’re spending the assets to acquire purely on points production rather than any long-lasting value. It’s aggressive, but it could help you win a title.
- Dynasty Decision: Tony Pollard - June 21, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Cooper Kupp - June 14, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Travis Etienne - May 24, 2024
