Diontae Johnson traded to Carolina: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
Some teams just have a knack for developing certain positions. For years, the Pittsburgh Steelers have found a way to churn out productive wide receivers. The list of recent Pittsburgh greats is long and includes the likes of Hines Ward, Antonio Brown, Plaxico Burress, Mike Wallace, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Santonio Holmes, and more. Many of those successful receivers (and dynasty lineup staples) from that list have been late round draft picks or even undrafted free agents. Some of them have worked out long-term and others haven’t. In the case of Diontae Johnson, it seems five seasons was enough. Pittsburgh traded Johnson to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for cornerback Donte Jackson and a late round pick swap, ended a productive stint in Steel City. Johnson is in the final year of his contract and comes with a $10 million cap hit to the Panthers, leaving $5.8 million of dead cap in Pittsburgh in his wake. The deal is an important one for both teams, so let’s take a look at some updated dynasty values.
Diontae Johnson, WR CAR
For the most part, Johnson has been a pretty effective player for Pittsburgh. Over his five seasons (78 total games played), he posted 391 catches for 4,363 yards and 25 touchdowns. When you consider the quarterbacks he’s played with other than Ben Roethlisberger (Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky), that’s pretty admirable. Unfortunately, Johnson was just never able to really develop the way many dynasty managers hoped he would. After a monster 2021 season where he posted 107 catches for 1,161 yards and eight touchdowns, he was reaching WR1 status.
Then the streak happened.
Johnson went an amazing 22 straight regular season games without scoring a touchdown and posted just one in a 27-game stretch overall. It was an unbelievable (and fluky) stretch where Johnson simply couldn’t find the end zone, including the entire 2022 season where he was shut out. The streak zapped a lot of his dynasty value and he likely needed a fresh start, which he’ll now receive.
In Carolina, some hope is renewed for his value, even after coming off a disappointing 51/717/5 season last year. However, some caution needs to be applied here. Johnson will find himself on a depth chart that includes Adam Thielen to keep defenses honest but also featuring quarterback Bryce Young, who struggled mightily in year one. The Steelers were tied in the spot sitting next to last in passing touchdowns last year with just 13 (behind the Jets, who had 11) with, you guessed it, the Panthers. In the end, Johnson should be able to maintain his value and could lead the team in receiving yards next year but Young needs to show massive improvement for anyone to be excited about this. On the good side, he is now entering a contract year – if Young doesn’t improve, he can get out and find a permanent new home of his choosing next off-season. He should be looked at as a WR2 at the moment but again, we need to see a lot more from this Panthers offense and Young specifically before suggesting Johnson is a “set it and forget it” option every week.
Adam Thielen, WR CAR
This guy is just a machine. Despite being 33 years old, Thielen recorded one of his best statistical seasons last year with 103 catches for 1,014 yards. While his touchdown total of four may not be impressive, it was more than a third of the total Young threw all year, so it’s not all bad. Bet against Thielen if you want but the guy has 447 targets over the past four seasons and has scored 34 times in the same span. His age is going to keep his ADP low but he’s still a solid target for a contending dynasty team, with or without Johnson in the fold. He just produces every year and that simply cannot be ignored.
Jonathan Mingo, WR CAR
Mingo was a popular rookie pick at this time last year but developed pretty slowly. His rookie season ended with 43 catches for 418 yards. It’s not a bad line for a rookie (especially on an offense that was a mess) but one also has to consider the Panthers traded for Johnson, already have Thielen and were apparently in the mix to sign Mike Williams (who they lost out on). If they had a lot of faith in Mingo, they wouldn’t be this aggressive in re-shaping their depth chart at the position. Mingo’s ADP has dropped down towards the Mendoza line and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be rising any time soon. He’s a hold in dynasty leagues but a lot of excitement about his future is starting to fade.
Bryce Young, QB CAR
CJThe Panthers are clearly trying to surround Young with more talent and that can’t hurt. However, they have to see a second year leap here to avoid real tragedy. They’ve already seen the player they passed on (CJ Stroud) turn into a superstar and the pick they traded to get Young is going to end up likely being Caleb Williams (the first pick in this year’s draft). They’ve sold the farm, the land, the tractors and Grandma’s house to get him, so they’ll be patient. At this point, their decisions over the last year have to be keeping them up at night, though.
Other Panthers Receivers
This group consists of players like Terrace Marshall, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, and Mike Strachan. Each of these receivers has shown some promise here and there but none of them consistently enough to trust. Marshall is the likely the gem of the list but we’ve seen too many reports of dominant preseasons or practices followed by production lapses to ever get too excited. If the Panthers get another receiver in the mix, it’s hard to see any of these players sticking on a dynasty roster.
George Pickens, WR PIT
If there’s a winner here, it’s Pickens. As the undisputed top receiver in Pittsburgh now, he should have every opportunity to build on his 63/1,140/5 breakout Sophomore season. With either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields at the helm, it seems the quarterback issues have been solved as well. There will be a lot of players who will be chosen to be among the next group to infiltrate top ten lists at the position in terms of dynasty rankings. Pickens is currently the WR25 and he’ll be a name to watch as a player who could make a big-time rise on the list as he’s poised for a career season now.
Other Steelers Receivers
The group of Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin III, Denzel Mims, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Marquez Callaway round out the rest of the Pittsburgh depth chart, at least for now. To me, the sneaky name here is Austin. His 17/180/1 rookie season is nothing to write home about but the Steelers seem to really love him. Let’s see what happens in the draft but he could have a path to some meaningful playing time moving forward. You could do worse on your sleeper lists.
Russell Wilson, QB PIT
Pittsburgh fans certainly want to see Russ cook but losing Johnson might force him to be microwaving a little more than grilling. In other words, it never helps a quarterback when a legitimate weapon is lost. Still, this shouldn’t be catastrophic. If Wilson is good enough to really bounce back from his time in Denver, he’s going to do it with or without Johnson.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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