Dynasty Decision: Najee Harris
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Najee Harris, RB PIT
Harris was drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and the hope was that he would solve the Pittsburgh Steelers’ rushing woes. He has not been that perfect solution, but he has been productive, although he now finds himself in a split backfield with Jaylen Warren. Heading into potentially the final year of his rookie contract, should you move on from him before he loses value?
Previous Performance
Harris exploded out of the gates with a phenomenal rookie season. He saw incredible volume in both the rushing and receiving game, with over 300 rushing attempts and just short of 100 targets. He finished the season as the overall RB3. He was not incredibly efficient, averaging only 3.9 yards per carry and scoring only seven touchdowns. However, the volume alone allowed him to post fantastic fantasy numbers.
Since that rookie year, Harris has failed to reach the same fantasy heights. He has seen a reduction in volume every year as Jaylen Warren has become a more significant part of the offense. In 2022, he finished as the overall RB13 and dropped again in 2023, finishing as the RB22. The loss of receiving work to Warren has been somewhat catastrophic to Harris’ fantasy production. Dropping from 96 targets as a rookie to 37 last season meant Harris lost over five fantasy points per game purely from the reduction in receiving work.
Situation and Usage
Harris’s situation hasn’t dramatically changed over the last 12 months. He will likely be splitting the backfield alongside Warren again in 2024. Last season, Harris saw a 54.0% opportunity share, and it is hard to see that changing drastically. However, adding Arthur Smith as a play-caller and Russell Wilson as a quarterback could increase efficiency.
Smith is one of the best and most inventive run scheme coordinators in the league and will likely improve the effectiveness of the run game. Add in Wilson, who is an excellent proponent of play action and pushing the ball downfield, which will likely improve efficiency again.
From a raw volume standpoint, Harris is likely to see around 250 carries and 40 targets unless Warren is injured and his playing time increases. However, with the potential for improved efficiency, he could put up better fantasy numbers than he did last year.
Contract
Harris is in the final year of his rookie contract. He does have the fifth-year option, which is currently projected to be $6.8m. It is probably 50/50 whether the Steelers will decide to pick it up or not. If Harris does hit the open market, he will likely see a more optimistic market than previous running backs have. This year, in free agency, teams have spent willingly at the running back position, giving hope.
As a free agent, Harris will likely see at least a two or three-year deal and should be in demand enough to land a starting role. So, he should have at least two more years of fantasy relevance, but hopefully three or potentially four.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB22 in February ADP and the 82nd overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth an early to mid-second-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below and seem to marry up with the estimated valuation from the trade analyzer, although some are slightly off:
Conclusion
Najee Harris is the type of player I struggle to get too excited to roster in dynasty. He works in a split backfield and lacks an elite ceiling outside of an injury to Jaylen Warren. He is not part of a high-scoring offense where he will score 20-plus touchdowns and hugely buoy his fantasy production. Considering all of this, he is still expensive. I would rather roster a player with a higher short-term ceiling, like Derrick Henry or Joe Mixon, or a longer projected fantasy-relevant career, like the incoming batch of rookies. For this reason, he is not a player I would be actively looking to acquire.
If you’re a contender, I would be happy to pivot away from Harris for a traditional win-now option like Derrick Henry or Joe Mixon, who are likely to outscore Harris in the 2024 season. If I was rebuilding, I would happily trade him for a mid-second-round pick and opt for the unknown of an incoming rookie.
There is a world where Warren gets injured, Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson help the offense take a step forward, and Harris, as a result, produces phenomenal fantasy results. However, that is a relatively unlikely scenario, and some cheaper players are more likely to achieve that elite outcome. In my opinion, Harris is the perfect ‘Dynasty Decision’ candidate and one I would be looking to get out of now before his price drops even further as a free agent next season.
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