Josh Jacobs signs with the Green Bay Packers: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
When free agency began, there were a lot of places rumored to have interest in running backs. Teams like Dallas, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston and a few others were widely regarded as possibilities to land a premier runner. The list of options was deep this year and it looked like the action was going to be fast and furious (which it was). While free agency is rarely predictable, Green Bay was not seen as a likely destination for anyone, though. After all, they had Aaron Jones under contract and a lot of other perceived needs on the roster. Regardless, they made a huge splash early by signing former Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and subsequently releasing Jones. It’s a move that ends up having a wide-ranging affect on dynasty values, so let’s take a look at the players involved.
Josh Jacobs, RB GB
When the Raiders surprisingly took the former Alabama running back with the 24th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, many in the NFL and fantasy communities were surprised. After all, this is player who we knew had talent but also had fewer than 300 total carries in college and never more than 120 carries in a single season. Many thought Miles Sanders or David Montgomery were superior (or at least similar) options in the draft but the Raiders believed they had found their future bellcow and took him early. While there was clearly no consensus top back that year, they banked on Jacobs making good on his potential.
That he did.
Jacobs posted two straight 1,000-yard seasons to start his career and scored 19 touchdowns over his first two campaigns, establishing himself on the dynasty map. After a sub-standard 2021 season, Jacobs really hit his stride in 2022 with a league-leading 1,653 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. He was given the franchise tag in 2023 and played on it but the results were tragic last year as he ran for just 805 rushing yards and saw his yards per carry average drop from an elite 4.9 to a pedestrian 3.5. The Raiders had a choice to franchise tag him again or sign him to a long-term deal this off-season. However, he would have had to be paid the franchise total of $14.1-plus million for 2024 and Las Vegas just saw it as too much money.
The Packers didn’t agree and gave Jacobs a four-year deal worth $48 million. It”s a big-time gamble for a Packers team ready to compete but they obviously believe Josh McDaniels underutilized Jacobs in his time. While Antonio Pierce finally gave him some more carries after replacing McDaniels during last season, the results were better. However, the season was basically lost at that point.
In Green Bay, Jacobs is going to be a workhorse back with both yardage and touchdown opportunities. At age 26, he still has a lot of value as our RB11 and this signing should help solidify that. He has a chance to be a true RB1 next season based on the volume he’s going to see and his ADP is going to now be on the upswing as a result. If Jordan Love continues to progress, Jacobs is in a prime situation for fantasy points.
AJ Dillon, RB GB
The Packers weren’t done with surprises and ended up signing running back AJ Dillon to a one-year deal later in free agency. Dillon was rumored to be on the Cowboys radar but he decided to keep things close to home and stay with Green Bay. It’s not great for his fantasy value as Jacobs was signed to be the workhorse. Even if Jacobs was to get hurt, Dillon just hasn’t shown a lot in recent years and doesn’t look like anything but insurance at this point. He was borderline awful last season when Jones was battling hamstring injuries and averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. While still roster worthy in most leagues, the dreams of Dillon ever becoming a featured back have long since faded.
Aaron Jones, RB MIN
The Vikings cut Alexander Mattison and didn’t bring back Cam Akers, putting them in the market for Jones, who they quickly signed for one year and $7 million. He lands on his feet with a Division rival and should have a nice opportunity to produce. His final season in Green Bay was a disappointment as he posted just 656 rushing yards and two scores in 11 games but we saw he still has a lot of juice left in the tank after he carved up Dallas to the tune of 118 yards and three touchdowns in their playoff win.
Jones has proven to be more than effective throughout his career and has posted 5,940 rushing yards on a healthy 5.0 yards per carry with three 1,000-yard seasons in his seven years in the league. He also has 272 career catches, making him a versatile threat out of the backfield. If he’s over his hamstring issues, Jones should have a chance at a nice season as he attempts to parlay a solid year into one more multi-year contract. The Vikings need to address more needs but no defense is going to stack the box against Jones when Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are lining up on the outside.
In short, this landing spot for Jones ends up being a good one and while he may not put up the same numbers he could have in Green Bay, he should still be able to post something resembling a RB2 season. His ADP is likely going to suffer a bit based on him being on a one-year deal but he could still make for a decently priced veteran if you’re a contending dynasty team.
Zamir White, RB LV
I’m really hesitant in even adding this (check the comments below) but there’s merit at the moment because I want to make a specific point. Things are changing quickly and my expectation is the Raiders find a way here in the next month or so to add to their depth chart. White was solid last season with 451 yards and a touchdown but I just can’t imagine they don’t draft another running back to use as a 1-2 punch or even as a possible starter. If they truly believe in White, that’s fantastic for him and he’s a clear winner here. However, the point I’m making here is this is a terrible time to buy a running back as the rosters are in flux over the past month. Overpaying for White or someone like Gus Edwards of the Chargers right now before the NFL Draft is over could be a huge mistake. Let the dust settle, gang.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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