Russell Wilson signs with Pittsburgh: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
As I wrote last week, the trade of Russell Wilson from Seattle to Denver could go down as the single worst trade in the history of the Broncos or even the entire NFL. Wilson struggled mightily, failed to mesh with new Head Coach Sean Payton and will be released this week. As such, the Broncos are going to take a cap hit of more than $85 million over the next two years just to have Wilson not play for them. With Wilson granted permission to find a new home, he quickly did so (while many of you were sleeping) by agreeing to sign with Pittsburgh at the beginning of the league year, which starts on Wednesday. It’s a development that was somewhat expected but still needs to be unraveled. Let’s take a look at the dynasty values of all the players impacted by the move.
Russell Wilson, QB PIT
Wilson was a model of consistency in Seattle for a decade, truly a “set it and forget it” QB1 each and every season. He was traded to Denver two years ago with four different 4,000-yard seasons under his belt, along with eight different years with at least 25 touchdown passes. He was supposed to be the same player in Denver and many expected even better numbers as he was blessed with weapons like Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy (yeah, he didn’t work out either), and Courtland Sutton just to name a few. None of it happened and when it was clear Sean Payton just didn’t want him as his long-term solution, Denver decided to admit their mistake and move on, albeit with some massive buyer’s remorse. If you ever wondered how fast things can change in the NFL, consider this. The Wilson trade ended up being this below (again, just two years ago):
Broncos receive:
- QB Russell Wilson
- 2022 fourth-round pick (DLÂ Eyioma Uwazurike, Iowa State)
- Lots of used up cap space
Seahawks receive:
- QBÂ Drew Lock
- DT Shelby Harris
- TEÂ Noah Fant
- 2022 first-round pick (OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State)
- 2022 second-round pick (OLBÂ Boye Mafe, Minnesota)
- 2022 fifth-round pick (OLBÂ Tyreke Smith, Ohio State)
- 2023 first-round pick (CBÂ Devon Witherspoon, Illinois)
- 2023 second-round pick (EDGEÂ Derick Hall, Auburn)
- A whole lot of cap space
After the trade was finalized, the Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $242 million contract extension – a deal which included a massive $161 million in guaranteed money. Again, just two years later, the Steelers are securing his services for just $1.2 million. It’s like buying a Ferrari, then selling it the following summer for a box of Jujyfruits and some Subway coupons.
In Pittsburgh, Wilson will compete with Kenny Pickett for the starting job. You have to imagine he’s been given every indication this “competition” will be his to lose, otherwise he would have kept shopping for a new home. Assuming Wilson is indeed the starter, this move carries with it some renewed hope. While there are dominoes to fall on the Steelers depth chart, Wilson ends up with a contending team and a stable environment. He’ll enter next year as a QB2 and has fallen all the way down to our QB24 in terms of dynasty rankings. However, he could have some magic left and the motivation to do well is clearly going to be there. The Steelers are going to be a run-first offense but Wilson thrived in similar setting in Seattle. Expecting him to match his 3,070/26/8 season from last year doesn’t seem unreasonable. He will clearly be motivated to have a good year and land one more long-term contract in Pittsburgh or elsewhere at this time next year.
Kenny Pickett. QB PIT
After being the 20th overall pick in 2022, much was expected of Pickett as he attempted to replace Ben Roethlisberger. Pickett has been decent over his first two years but clearly hasn’t bee a true difference maker. Over his two years, Pickett has thrown for 4,474 yards with 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 25 games. Again. Meh. Pickett has looked mostly like a game manager and nowhere close to an elite option. Pittsburgh was said to have been convinced to give him one more shot to prove himself this year but it seems the signing of Wilson makes that look like a smokescreen. While it looks like Pickett will be able to compete with Wilson based on his low-cost contract, it’s hard to see this going his way and his ADP is going to plummet as a result.
Mason Rudolph, QB FA
There was a time last year when it was clear the Steelers liked Rudolph a lot better than Pickett (they actually still might). Unless they move Pickett, it seems likely Rudolph will be looking for a new contract elsewhere. There’s little reason to keep him on a dynasty roster at this point.
Steelers Skill Position Players
This group consists of Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Calvin Austin. If Wilson can recapture some of his early career mojo, you have to like what he can do with this group, There are serious questions about the future of Johnson but Pickens could greatly benefit from Wilson. The Steelers were in the bottom five of scoring offenses last year and only the Jets had fewer passing touchdowns. In short, it can’t get worse.
Jarrett Stidham, QB DEN
At this point, Stidham is now the starting quarterback of the Denver Broncos. With Wilson and Jeudy both gone, the Broncos need to re-tool their offense. If Sean Payton was to go into the season building around Stidham, it would be truly stunning.
2024 NFL Draft Quarterbacks
The Broncos are currently sitting with the 12th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, That pick likely isn’t high enough for them to get Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye or Caleb Williams and may not be high enough for them to even have a shot at JJ McCarthy. What they do now is going to be truly fascinating.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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