Tim Riordan: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome back to another installment in our series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2024 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2024 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

1QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Tim Riordan

Over the last week, I participated in my first-ever dispersal draft! For those who do not know, a dispersal draft is a way to hit the reset button in a dynasty fantasy football league. All the assets on the team are released into a limited draft pool, and the participating teams draft from that pool. In this case, I joined the DLF Family Squabble Dynasty League. I was replacing a manager who left, along with two other new managers. Two more managers decided to add all of their assets into the dispersal draft and restart their dynasty, so it was a five person draft.

My 2024 Dynasty #FantasyFootball drafts are underway already! I'm joining a @DLFootball dynasty league via a dispersal draft. It's my first time doing a dispersal and it has been really fun! Check out the results here – https://t.co/R7OdFvQxfq pic.twitter.com/rnGfIUjRKn

— Tim Riordan (@timmymr) February 28, 2024

The draft was so much fun, and such an interesting exercise in player and draft pick values. With a limited player pool, you had to analyze where the strengths and weaknesses of the draft were going to be. The league is superflex and tight end premium, so I had to prioritize those positions to make sure I would have a chance to compete this season. It was important to analyze where the tier drops were, and sometimes I had to throw out my rankings to fill a position of need.

The other fun wrinkle with a dispersal draft like this was that we had to draft rookie draft picks for 2024 and 2025. With only three 2024 first round rookie picks available, the managers in the draft were forced to make decisions between known players and the sexiness of the unknown rookie draft pick. I missed out on the very high picks this year, and all of the 2025 picks (picking at the turn cost me a few times there), but I was able to get three picks in the top 20 of this very exciting class.

I open up with this story because that is what we’re doing with this series. We’re taking our dynasty rankings and slotting in where we believe the rookie draft picks belong. It can be really difficult at a time like this, where we know the rookie class and who the studs and duds are, but we don’t know where they were drafted or what the draft capital is. Right now, I have picks 1-3, Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze (not necessarily in that order) in the top 20, but there are some awful teams that they could end up on. While landing spot may not move any of those three out of the top rookie draft picks, they could push their value down on a list like this.

A note on my approach to dynasty fantasy football rankings. I put a lot of stock into this upcoming year. The years beyond that are important, but if I think an older player can help me win a title this season, while a younger player is unproven and may be a project, I am going to take that player earlier. You’ll see I push wide receivers down the board a little bit because of this. I want to make sure every position has fantasy football winners in it this season, and I’ll build for the future on my bench or with trades. There is so much depth at the wide receiver position, and we’re going to see another influx of young talent coming in in this year’s draft, that I have to push them down a bit in favor of harder-to-find positions like running back and tight end. I even push the elite quarterbacks up a bit because I think they can be dynasty game-changers in one quarterback leagues.

Without further ado, my top 120 one quarterback rankings, including 2024 rookie draft picks.

Rankings: 1 - 24

Right off the bat, I’m throwing a curveball at you with Ja’Marr Chase as my number one pick, instead of Justin Jefferson, who I have moved down to number three. A Lot of that has to do with their outlook for 2024 and the quarterbacks who will be throwing them the ball. The championship window for the Bengals is getting very tight, so they are going all in on this season. They’re bringing back Tee Higgins, they’re bringing back Joe Mixon, and Joe Burrow is healthy and ready to prove that last season was a speed bump on the way to a Hall of Fame career. The vibes are incredible for the Bengals right now, and I want as many pieces of that offense as I can get. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins may be looking at houses in Atlanta and there were rumors swirling around the NFL Combine that Trey Lance could be the answer for the Vikings at quarterback.

1 of @richeisen's 5 Rumors from the NFL Combine:

Trey Lance might be the Minnesota Vikings next QB

Full video is a good one https://t.co/Iv1RRFqULS pic.twitter.com/oIOZXGEef1

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) March 5, 2024

The Vikings offense scares me a bit. They lost their elite running game, TJ Hockenson could be on the sideline well into the 2024 season and Jordan Addison could continue to take away targets and touchdown passes from Jefferson. He is elite, and he’ll be just fine through all of this, but I had to move him down a little bit behind some receivers who are in better situations next year and beyond, Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb.

Coming in at the eighth spot in my rankings is the 1.01 pick, which will very likely be Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s grouped in there with Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson as my fifth through ninth ranked wide receivers. Those are the kinds of names I would be looking for in a one for one trade with the first overall pick, so that’s where Marvin Harrison slots in. The picks that will most likely be Nabers and Odunze slot in as 18th and 20th respectively, straddling Tee Higgins on each side. I think all three of those rookie picks are top 20 players, and the pick representing Brock Bowers is not far behind. The top four picks in this year’s rookie draft are so valuable.

For this group, Patrick Mahomes was my biggest riser and Jaylen Waddle was my biggest faller. Mahomes is still my quarterback one, even after a down year. I’m a Patriots fan who grew up worshiping Tom Brady, and I can even admit that Mahomes is the best quarterback to ever play the game. He’s got at least 10 more years, and probably more, of high-end production ahead of him and I don’t think you can say that about the other top quarterbacks with as much certainty. Hopefully, the Chiefs invest in wide receivers this year and Mahomes return to being the elite fantasy option that we’re used to.

Rankings: 25 - 48

Early on in this group, we see three of the four first-round wide receivers from the 2023 NFL Draft, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers. While Addison may have a negative number next to his name (see above for my concerns about the Vikings offense), I was really impressed with all three of these players last year, even Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was much better when NOT in the slot during his rookie season:

328 slot routes – 0.83 YPRR
147 non slot routes – 2.43 YPRR

JSN was also much better vs. man than zone coverage. Typically, "slot receivers" perform better vs. zone.

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) March 5, 2024

JSN was completely misused and mistreated last year by the Seahawks’ offense. While Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are coming back, I’m hoping the new regime recognizes the elite talent they have in Smith-Njigba. I’m not giving up on him and I am still treating him like the best wide receiver from last year’s first round.

You’ll start to see some tight ends enter the fray in this range, starting with Mark Andrews. I have him as my top tight end, but it is getting very tough to keep him there. Isaiah Likely looked really good last year and injuries continue to be a problem for Andrews. While he was available to come back during the playoffs last season, there can be some tough, lingering effects from an ankle injury like that. On top of that, LaPorta was incredible in his rookie season and Brock Bowers could push both of them down a peg in dynasty tight end rankings.

Then, of course, there is the Kyle Pitts problem. I have Pitts as my TE3 (not including Bowers) and the 46th overall pick. And I am terrified. But, I think there is hope for long-suffering Pitts managers, and that hope could come in the form of Kirk Cousins. If Cousins does indeed sign with the Falcons, it is a huge boost for Pitts. He’ll have a chance to revitalize his career with a new coach, a new offense, and a new quarterback. Cousins has always done a good job involving his tight end, looking back at Kyle Rudolph, TJ Hockenson, and even Jordan Reed back in his days in Washington. This could be a really nice buy-low window for Pitts, because if Cousins signs with the team, his value should go way up.

Rankings: 49 - 72

This range of picks has five rookie picks involved, 1.05-1.09. While more and more rookie picks get added to the rankings, you’ll see higher and higher negative numbers. Rashee Rice stands out here as a guy that it looks like I am way down on, but I absolutely am not. I was an early adopter of Rashee Rice last year and even I was surprised with how well he did this season. I do believe the Chiefs will target wide receiver this offseason, maybe one of the receivers that will be picked with rookie picks 5-9, so that does have an impact on his ranking. If the Chiefs don’t invest in a high-end receiver, Rice will be moved up this list quite a bit.

Speaking of the Chiefs, there are four more tight ends in this range, three of them have moved up at least one round. I just hate being caught chasing at the tight end position. This rookie class appears to be Brock Bowers and a bunch of guys, so it’s tough to find 12 tight ends that you’re comfortable keeping in your starting lineup. I love Dalton Kincaid and believe he could be absolutely unleashed this season. Gabe Davis is likely gone and Stefon Diggs may try to find a way off of this team as well. We saw flashes of how great Kincaid can be in his rookie season, he’ll put it all together this year and be a dominant dynasty tight end for years to come.

On the negative side, I have Cooper Kupp down 23 spots at 72 overall. Now that he’s into his thirties and he’s building up quite an injury history, I’m not even sure if I can count on him for this year, let alone multiple years down the road. This is Puka Nacua’s team now and Kupp is just a piece of the puzzle.

Rankings: 73 - 96

There is a player in this range that SHOCKED me when I saw that I was lower on him than consensus, and that’s Tyjae Spears. I love Spears and I am so excited to see what he can do if he’s the number one back on the Titans offense. I was certain I would be higher on him than consensus, but I’m twelve whole picks lower (granted that includes 10 rookie picks). There are a few reasons why I have a couple of older veterans above Tyjae Spears that may explain why I’m “lower” on him than consensus. The team context is, of course, horrible. This team is basically starting over with a second year regime, a new head coach, and a new organizational philosophy. Ran Carthon is the guy in Nashville and they are totally buying into his vision, but it will take time to get there, and time might not be something that works in Spears’ favor. He has that degenerative knee issue that popped up in reports on draft night. These arthritic (or pre-arthritic) knees are a major concern for running backs in dynasty leagues. It’s the type of problem where a player can be an RB1 in one season, and basically out of the league the next. Assuming Derrick Henry does move on, the Titans will definitely bring in another back to split carries with Spears. He can still be valuable while splitting carries, but for how long? He is one of my favorite players in football and I am rooting for him, but I guess I’m lower on him than my DLF colleagues.

Another player I’m lower on that didn’t surprise me is Nico Collins. I’m nearly 50 spots lower on Collins than the DLF consensus. He’s a third-round dynasty pick that I have slotted into the seventh. Collins was a third-year breakout at wide receiver last year, catching 80 balls for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. I’ll admit, I’m typically slow to accept “late-career” breakout seasons such as this. When a receiver has done nothing in the league their first two seasons, I tend not to trust them unless there is a clear reason for this. You could say the quarterback was the reason why he never broke out, but Brandin Cooks did just fine with those quarterbacks. I’ll need to see it another year with Collins, and I know that means that I’ll be a year too late if I’m wrong, but that’s my process.

Speaking of late-career breakout seasons, I’ve moved David Njoku up 18 spots to number 81 overall. This may sound contradictory, but the different positions are important in this process. Tight end is a position that typically takes a while to settle into (ignoring Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid last year). Njoku also saved me in several leagues last year where I was stuck with Mark Andrews, so there is likely a little bit of bias built into this ranking. The problem with Njoku had always been usage, he just wasn’t getting enough routes in previous seasons with the Browns. He ran a career-high 497 routes last year, 31.1 per game, 6th most amongst all tight ends. His previous career high came in 2018 when he ran 381 routes. He was also third amongst all tight ends in targets (123), target rate (24.7%), and snap share (87%). Njoku is also younger than you’d expect, turning 28 in July. He’s my tight end nine in dynasty and I feel like I could easily move him up a few spots from there.

Rankings: 97 - 120

As we approach the double-digit rounds in a startup draft, I find myself more and more preferring the upside of a rookie draft pick or an unproven young player over veteran guys like Austin Ekeler, David Montgomery, and Najee Harris. Picks 14-19 are all in this range, and if we kept going, we’d probably get into the third round before too long. That speaks to how deep and how impressive this rookie class is, especially at wide receiver. We can go nearly 20 players deep with rookies that I value in the top ten rounds. It’s very exciting, but it’s also nerve-racking for dynasty managers. With so much young blood entering the player pool, it could spell disaster for some of our veteran players who have been cornerstones in dynasty for years.

If you’re in Western Pennsylvania, you may want to close this page now, because I have not been kind to your players in these rankings. Earlier in my rankings, you saw that I’m 26 spots lower on George Pickens than consensus. In this section, you see I’m also 36 spots down on Diontae Johnson, 34 spots down on Najee Harris, and 27 spots down on Jaylen Warren. Sorry yinzers! The good news for Steelers fans is that Matt Canada is gone. The bad news is he’s been replaced with Arthur Smith. The even worse news is that Arthur Smith and the Steelers are working on “rebuilding” Kenny Pickett, when they should be working on getting a new quarterback. The situation in Pittsburgh is so ugly for fantasy, and I’m avoiding it as much as I can.

One player who has moved up quite a bit in these rankings is DeAndre Hopkins, 22 spots from 132 to 110. I have him as my 41st ranked wide receiver. I’m not saying he’s someone who should be acquired right away, but I do think he is a player who can help teams win a championship in 2024.

Image generated using the DLF Splits Tool.

Hopkins stepped up his game with Will Levis under center last year. Levis will likely be the Titans quarterback for 2024 and Hopkins is going to once again be all that the Titans give him to throw the ball to. The team desperately needs a wide receiver, and will probably add one, but they also have needs all over the field. He was the WR22 in PPR points last season and a player that you could count on in your lineups most weeks. On a competing team, Hopkins could be a very cheap option to carry a team over the top to a title.

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Tim Riordan

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Tim has spent over a decade in sports radio as a host, analyst, play-by-play broadcaster and a producer. He’s been called the Tom Brady of dynasty commissioners and an expert of player values.

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