Dynasty Decision: Dak Prescott
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Dak Prescott, QB DAL
Prescott has been a fantasy superstar throughout his career, leading some explosive offenses. However, he is rarely valued amongst the elite at the quarterback position. After another year of playoff failure and heading into the final year of his contract, should we be concerned about him moving forward and, therefore, looking to move on?
Previous Performance
After being drafted by the Cowboys in the fourth round, he was thrust into the starting lineup after a Tony Romo injury. Prescott did not look back and produced a phenomenal rookie season where he finished as the QB7, averaging 19 points per game. He then continued leading the Cowboys to impressive offensive performances, leading to excellent fantasy production, finishing as QB6, QB13, and QB2 in the following three years.
2020 started well; however, he suffered a fairly horrendous ankle injury where he dislocated and fractured his ankle. He quickly bounced back in 2021 with a QB8 overall finish. In 2022, Prescott had a down year when viewing season-long stats where he finished as the QB18, although that was primarily because he missed four games due to a thumb fracture, which affected him through the season. Last season, he bounced back incredibly well in one of the best offenses in the league, finishing as the fantasy QB3 averaging 20.7 PPG.
It’s an impressive fantasy career to date. He has finished as a top-eight quarterback in five of the six seasons when he has played 13+ games. That is incredible fantasy production for a player who is consistently undervalued in dynasty.
Situation and Usage
The Cowboys have undergone a few changes over the past few years. Kellen Moore was moved on as offensive play caller, and Mike McCarthy took over the play calling; this had a fantastic impact, and the Cowboys had a phenomenal season, leading the league in points per game. This off-season, there have been very few changes on offense. The core group will return with CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, and Jake Ferguson all under contract. The offensive line is likely to return at least four starters. The only potential change is at running back, where Tony Pollard is a free agent, but based on recent reports, he could potentially return.
The offense around Prescott is going to allow him to consistently put up fantasy production. The Cowboys attempted the most pass attempts per game last year at 37.4, and it will likely be a high-volume passing attack with some fantastic weapons around Prescott to drive that production. There should be nothing to change the situation for 2024.
Whether that is the case for 2025 and beyond is another question, as another playoff disappointment could lead to changes at head coach and beyond.
Contract
Contractually, it is a fascinating situation. Prescott is in the final year of the four-year extension he signed in March 2021. The expectation is that the Cowboys will sign him to a long-term market-setting extension this off-season. However, there is a slight chance that they will opt to risk Prescott playing the 2024 season without a contract. There is a lot of pressure on the Cowboys after a disappointing playoff run the past few seasons, which could allow them to move in a different direction if that disappointment continues.
The realistic scenario is that the Cowboys re-sign their franchise quarterback to a long-term extension averaging around $55-60m per year.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the QB10 in Superflex ADP from February and the 14th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the equivalent of the 1.02 in a superflex league or three future first-round picks. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Quarterback is such an interesting value proposition in superflex leagues. Far too often, we overvalue youth and undervalue age at the position rather than view it in a smaller timescale. Yes, a franchise quarterback can indeed be the cornerstone of your roster for up to 15 years. However, if you focus on the next three to four years, it is hard to see too many players who will produce to the level of Dak Prescott. He finished last season as the QB3 and is in a pass-first offense that will continue to put up points. That’s before I mentioned that he is about to sign a new mega extension and is only 30 years old. He will have at least five more years of elite fantasy production and potentially another ten.
It is challenging to buy the elite quarterbacks in dynasty as they’re priced so highly that you must destroy your entire roster to acquire one in a trade. However, Prescott could give you that elite production for half the cost. If you could acquire him for a couple of future first-round picks or perhaps pivot from a younger, more unproven quarterback like Justin Fields or Brock Purdy with an asset on top like a second-round pick, you could improve the production you will see over the next few years without mortgaging the future.
It is hard to find a quarterback at a similar price point who will give you the consistency of Prescott week to week and across the season. He is a safe and reliable option with a ceiling as high as many.
Whether you’re in a rebuild or a contender, acquiring Dak Prescott as your QB2 in a Superflex league will likely fire you on the road to success. There is minimal risk or downside and a tremendous amount of upside.
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