Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Stick with Jalen Hurts?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Apologies to the masses. I had just concluded a 7,500-word masterpiece on why Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is primed for the greatest opening two-game stretch in NFL history, and – well – you now know the rest. The good news for him is he still has his looks! The good news for me is I still have the DLF Mailbag to fall back on!
Let’s get to it!
From the DLF Discord server…
Down to Brown
Which side do you prefer, AJ Brown and a late 2025 third-round pick, or Deebo Samuel and a late 2025 first-round pick?
For an initial point of reference, let’s see what DLF’s Trade Analyzer has to say on the matter:
At first glance, I’d say this seems about right. Brown is younger than Samuel, has been playing at a higher level, and misses less game action due to injury. And while it’s true the San Francisco offense supplied more points to its pass catchers in the 2023 season (58.3 PPR points per game versus 54.1 for Philadelphia), there are both more and larger mouths to feed. To that point, while Brown has to contend with fellow receiver DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, Samuel has to fend off the trio of receiver Bradon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle, and all-world running back Christian McCaffrey. While there’s certainly an argument to be made for either side, it could be reasonably posited that both Aiyuk and Kittle are better than their Philly counterparts, and that’s before throwing Run CMC and his 165.4 PPR points into the mix. To that last tidbit, solely as a pass catcher McCaffrey would have been the PPR WR39 last season!
The amalgamation of all of the above manifested in the pair’s numbers in 2023:
As shown on the right-hand side, Brown was far superior to Samuel in terms of both receptions and targets, which helped him achieve a finer fantasy season. But where it gets interesting is when we directly compare receiving yards and touchdowns, and fantasy points – Brown was still better here, but Samuel managed to bridge the gap due to his efficiency with the ball in his hand. This is further shown on the left-hand side of the above, where Samuel’s ceiling is clearly every bit the equal of Brown’s. It’s fair to wonder that if we got a completely healthy season out of the 49er, would he be able to match Brown’s output?
Ultimately it doesn’t matter, because you can’t score points from the sideline, which is where Samuel spent six contests over the past two years, and parts of others. Bluntly, he just hasn’t been able to sustain the momentum established in his sterling 2021 campaign where he concluded the year as the overall PPR WR3. Brown meanwhile hasn’t missed a game as an Eagle, solidifying himself as a WR1 lock.
Given this, it’s not surprising to see the Trade Analyzer scoff at the inclusion of a downstream first-round draft pick. Changing it to a middle-round pick this season appears to bridge the gap, which is sensible enough as we have a sense of what a first-round rookie draft will look like.
Still, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out the futures game, as we know draft picks are more than likely to appreciate over time. To that point, let’s compare a garden-variety 2025 pick to its more mature counterparts in 2024:
We can all speculate about what we think will happen with there still being another full fantasy season in between now and 2025. And yes, there are likely those incredibly firmly-classified rebuilding squads who indeed are going to be that bad. But while acknowledging I’m comparing NFL apples to fantasy oranges, just look at the Houston Texans! They went from being two fourth–down conversions away from having the #1 overall pick to winning a playoff game in one year! They nailed their picks, and had other players mature – true, we can’t replicate the hire of a grade-A coach like DeMeco Ryans in the fantasy world, but there are parallels here. We don’t want to get caught assuming about the future.
That is all to say there exists a scenario where the owner receiving the 2025 first-rounder in the initial trade wins in the long run. Maybe they flip Deebo before he hits a cliff, and maybe their trade partner bottoms out. With Brown in tow I doubt it, but it’s not impossible – still, while not exactly approaching “blind faith” territory, it’s still too much of an assumption for me to give up the best asset in the deal.
Tanks for Nothing!
Which side would you prefer in a superflex league, Jalen Hurts or pick 1.01 and Tank Dell?
This is a potential game-changer for both teams. On one side we have Hurts, who is still only 25 years old and has finished as the fantasy QB10, QB3, and QB2 over the past three years. He helms a Philadelphia offense boasting the names described above and is a true dual-threat with over 2,100 rushing yards and 38 rushing scores in the three years since becoming the team’s full-time starter. He’s not too shabby through the air either, shrugging off a poor rookie season to achieve an accuracy percentage in the mid-60s, along with averaging over 7.0 YPA in each of his four seasons. He doesn’t throw a ton of scores, and perhaps his biggest red flag was the number of interceptions he tossed in 2023 with 15 (compared to 23 touchdowns).
I say “perhaps,” because Hurts’ biggest issue might be one that is decided for him – whether or not the NFL’s rules committee allows the infamous “tush push/Brotherly Shove” to remain within the confines of legality. To be clear, there’s absolutely no football reason to get rid of the play. If it was as simple as the Eagles make it look, every team would be running it with the same degree of success. And while Hurts was converting on the ground before this new 2023 paradigm, it has the potential to remove a major trick from his bag.
On the other side sits the tantalizing allure of upside. While I feel like I write this every week, pick 1.01 in a superflex league should yield the best quarterback prospect in years in Caleb Williams. Though the Bears aren’t anyone’s idea of a solid landing spot for a rookie signal caller, they’re an improving team now boasting a proper WR1 in DJ Moore, and a solid tight end in Cole Kmet. They need more weapons for sure, and it’s possible they use pick 1.09 on another pass catcher – perhaps they’ll be lucky enough to nab a guy like Rome Odunze or Brock Bowers, and it’s also possible they trade up, though they’re lacking their second-round pick following the disastrous Chase Claypool trade.
To me, Williams’ upside is basically a worse version of Hurts the rusher, and a better version of Hurts the passer. In fantasy football, the former takes on outsized importance, but there remains a place in the league for elite pocket passers, particularly those who can offer a little something with their legs like the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes. Still, I think I’d have to go with the bird in hand in a direct comparison.
So ultimately this will come down to your thoughts on Houston pass catcher Tank Dell. In his rookie season Dell defied the odds, coming in as a 5’10”, 165-pound receiver. Prior to a leg injury ending his season Dell had already compiled a fine 47-709-7 line in just over ten games. He was running neck and neck with teammate Nico Collins as both were buoyed by all-universe rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. Though it remains to be seen what Houston does in the off-season, it seems likely the pair of Dell and Collins will pick back up where they left off in 2023 – while banking on Dell to continue to buck trends based on his size carries some risk, it didn’t bother him in college, and he was emerging properly in his freshman season. Some guys are just NFL players, and Dell seems to be one – I don’t have him in my WR1 tier just yet, but he deserves to be up there with players like Zay Flowers and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in my opinion.
The DLF Trade Analyzer seems to largely reinforce all of the above. Hurts is the best asset in the deal, but the combination of Dell and (presumably) Williams comes out ahead, which is often the case in “consolidation” trades. If I was firmly in a window of contention, I think I’d have to lean Hurts – he has his warts, and I do believe in Williams. However I’m just not high on Chicago as a destination for immediate success, and not every player is going to do what Stroud did.
But if I’m more of an also-ran, I’d take the pick and Dell. Running in place isn’t going to get you anywhere, even with players of Hurts’ caliber. Having two young assets with high-end potential may be the optimum play for reaching the next echelon.
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