Justin Taylor: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome back to another installment in our series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2024 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2024 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

1QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Justin Taylor

As a dynasty fantasy football player these days, it can be difficult to navigate the dynasty values of certain players across leagues. The biggest problem for most fantasy managers in one quarterback leagues is how to actually value quarterbacks. In my experience, this is the number one question from dynasty owners. They struggle to find the data they need to make a decision or too often when they ask for advice from peers or analysts, those people are not quite sure what to tell them.

Dynasty values for quarterbacks in start 1QB leagues are vastly different than a start-two quarterback league or even a superflex league. In the aforementioned formats, quarterbacks are highly valuable and often taken extremely early in drafts. Quarterbacks are also extremely over-drafted because of scarcity, as opposed to a 1QB league where there seems to be plenty of options, even if they aren’t great.

The value of quarterbacks in a 1QB league can really depend on your league mates or scoring options. There are a lot of strategies that say to wait on quarterback as long as you can, but I’m not sure that is prudent advice in a dynasty league. Maybe in a redraft league that idea makes more sense and won’t bury you for more than one season. But you don’t want to be perpetually underscoring at the QB position especially if QB is weighted extremely heavily in the scoring.

Looking at where players are typically being drafted – their ADP – is definitely valuable information to have, plenty of which you can find on the DLF website. But where the real strategy comes from is reading your league mates and checking their lineup builds.
Knowing what everyone around you is doing helps inform your decisions and draft choices. A player 10 spots down on the draft board per ADP might be the player you need to take now.

I have had many instances where I waited to draft a player based on relative ADP numbers, thinking I could get them later, and told myself that no one would take them before it got back to me, only to be extremely disappointed when he got picked right after my selection.
Use the ADP as a reference, but I still believe in the philosophy to go “get your guy” whenever you can. Don’t try to play the waiting game. It rarely works out. Also winning the value game doesn’t necessarily win championships, and we play fantasy football to win.
The same can be said for trades. I have had league mates who have to absolutely win every trade they are involved in. Counting a trade as a win because of the perceived value of the players can backfire. Values are constantly changing in dynasty. You have to be willing to adjust or make a trade that might be considered a loser now but could very much be a league winner later. I have had this happen many times, where if you took a vote one day the results would be drastically different six months or a year later.

With all that being said, here are some of the main keys for me when it comes to guiding my 1QB rankings:

• Don’t ignore RBs no matter what you have heard: Most startup fantasy drafts will have wide receivers and quarterbacks flying off the board, but that also means a lot of good running backs are dropping in your league. Those RBs are ripe for the picking. If everyone else in your league is ignoring RBs, snagged those mugs up. It’s about winning now.
• RBs starting to push up against that mythical 28 years of age threshold are usually the first guys to fall by the wayside in most fantasy managers’ minds. This is when you can strike and get great value.
• Dual Threat QB: Quarterbacks who can run the ball are so much more valuable in 1QB rankings. Young QBs with high running upside like Anthony Richardson or veterans like Lamar Jackson can make a big difference on your team even if they are a bit of a long shot with some injury concerns. If I’m not jumping on a running QB, I’m waiting until I see guys start flying off the board.
• Don’t Hold a Grudge: I have a bad tendency to hold hate in my heart for players who did not perform up to expectations from year to year. When players let you down, the first instinct is to excommunicate them forever from any of your dynasty teams. But that might end up hurting you in the long run. Guys have injuries, end up in bad systems, and just can’t seem to stay healthy. These things should tank their value, but don’t just skip over these players. You could be getting a gem that everyone else is ignoring.
• Oh, Who is the New Guy?: Don’t get me wrong, I like rookies as much if not more than anyone else, but you have to be careful with them. Very few are proven. I love to pile up the young players on my roster in dynasty leagues, but there is something about going overboard with too many young players. The chances of them all hitting to win you a championship aren’t great. Grab some veterans with a clear-cut role.

Before we get to my rankings, remember that everyone in the industry will have different feelings about certain players. At the top of most rankings the same players will be similar, but there are always different strategies in dynasty, so use others’ rankings as a guide, not an end-all-be-all. Think about the type of team you want to build and make sure you can adjust on the fly when someone snipes you.

Let’s get to the rankings!

Rankings: 1 - 24

When you are talking about 1QB leagues, the top of a startup draft is usually riddled with top-flight, young wide receivers. My rankings are no different. My top six players are all WRs under the age of 25 and the 2024 1.01 ranking fourth overall. Former Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison JR. is the clear-cut number one pick for me in 1QB leagues. Having him over Amon-Ra St. Brown and Garrett Wilson might be a little rich for some people, but I have believed for the past two seasons that he would be an outstanding NFL player and fantasy stud.

Unlike some other experts, I’m not going to forget about the best running backs in the league. My next five picks are all RBs. I know RBs get knocked in today’s league. People say that most RBs are interchangeable and that you can just draft one late. You don’t need to overspend. That might be the case in some situations in real life, but for fantasy purposes, I want a stud on my roster and hopefully two.

While Bijan Robinson is pretty clearly RB1 for most people, it was extremely difficult for me not to have Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor as RB1 and RB2 ahead of Robinson. CMC is special. He was the most dominant player in fantasy football this season outside of Bills quarterback Josh Allen. I think CMC should have been the fantasy football MVP and NFL MVP this season. I know, that’s blasphemy to have an RB as the best player in the league over a QB. I don’t care what anyone says, CMC was the truth this season. I also don’t think he falls victim to age as quickly as a lot of other guys have in their careers. People also forget JT is just two years removed from a spectacular season where he ran for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns and was in the running for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year. For the reasons I just stated, I’m taking the “Old Guys” over Breece Hall and Jahmyr Gibbs, but those guys are each a big breakout season from jumping up the ranks.

After the RBs, I’m taking most all the Tier 2 WRs. The only exceptions are 2024 Rookie pick 1.02, which for me is Malik Nabors. I have him right behind Puka Nacua, but with the right landing spot for Nabers, I could be talked into moving that pick just a bit. The only other player in this mix that isn’t a WR is Jaguars RB Travis Etienne at No. 20.

Rankings: 25 - 48

When you get to this point in a 1QB draft, I am going to start eyeing the top QB in the draft. This might be just a tad early, but for me, Bills QB Josh Allen is worth overpaying. I’m usually a fan of waiting on QB in this format, but Allen just brings too much to the table with his rushing prowess, and getting the likely top scorer in fantasy at the beginning of the third round just feels right to me.
Once the top QB comes off the board you are going to have to jump on QB quicker than you thought as teams will get nervous about missing out on a top-end QB. I would expect Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to come off the board within a couple of picks of Allen.

This is where I find myself taking Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens. I’m 24 spots higher than most rankers on Pickens, but I always feel like if I don’t take him sooner rather than later I’m going to miss out on him. There are plenty of people who don’t like Pickens, but I love his game. He is tall, fast, and has great hands. His separation might leave something to be desired, but that doesn’t bother me because he makes fantastic catches in traffic.

The other surprise for me in this area of the rankings is Giants RB Saquon Barkley. The Giants’ offensive issues and the former Penn State players’ injury history will have most people hesitant to take Barkley in this area of the draft, but not me. He is an elite athlete who still has plenty left and could see a change of scenery in the offseason.

Depending on how your league handles tight end scoring this next group could move up slightly or down quite a bit. If there is any kind of large TE premium scoring or a start-two TE designation, this is where I want to grab the top guys. Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta leads my list, but my biggest variance from other rankers is Arizona Cardinals TE Trey McBride, who I have 36 spots ahead of the consensus. Then comes the 2024 1.03, which for me is Georgia TE Brock Bowers. Those TEs are at the top for me in dynasty.

From there I like the 2024 1.04, and then my Tier 2 RBs. Even though I have the Las Vegas Raiders Josh Jacobs and Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris at the bottom of my Tier 2, depending on my team build, I would consider them over some of the other players ranked ahead of them here. I’m 40 spots higher on Harris than most people. I’m buying the dip. He has had three really solid seasons to start his career with the Steelers even with the offense being an absolute disaster. I think his best days are still ahead of him.

Rankings: 49 - 72

If you have waited this long to grab a QB, this is where I like the Tier 2 guys. I’m taking the QBs with rushing upside first with the Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson and the Indianapolis Colts Anthony Richardson. If I can get either of these guys in the late fourth to early fifth round, I’m pumped about it.

From there it’s a pick who you like best between the top pocket passers left in the draft with Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow, Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert, Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence, and Houston Texans CJ Stroud.

If I really want a QB who can run and I missed out on Jackson and Richardson, I am then going to target the Chicago Bears’ Justin Fields and the Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, who could be in for a nice comeback season in 2024, which helped him to jump 12 spots in my rankings. I also have the 1.07 pick here, because I could see this being Caleb Williams in a 1QB league, and depending on if this pick ends up being Williams and depending on his NFL landing spot, this pick could move up for me near the top of this quarterback grouping.

Rankings: 73 - 96

This group of players is a mix of older players on their last leg or younger guys who haven’t quite met expectations. Who I draft in this area of the startup really depends on how I started my build early on. If I went really young early on, I might mix in some veterans here, if I already have a nice set of veterans, I will probably lean toward younger upside players at this point.

The big losers for me in this range are Austin Ekeler -40 spots lower, Chris Godwin -33, Tony Pollard -30, and Travis Kelce -22. Ekeler could be done. He did not look great last season and injuries are a concern. I don’t know what happened to Godwin, but he did not look good this past season. I hope he bounces back, but it was a rough year. The Cowboys could add an RB to the mix this season, hurting Pollard. Kelce is still a stud, but how many years does he have left? For me, I would rather have the upside of Pitts or Kincaid in this spot.

Rankings: 97 - 120

For the end of my rankings here, I could definitely see myself moving a few 2024 second round picks into this group. If some of the RBs in the draft fall into nice spots, such as Trey Benson, Jonathon Brooks, and Braelon Allen, and they are available at the beginning of the second round then I would really want those early second round picks in this spot.

Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth is my biggest riser in this part of the draft, I have him 18 spots higher than consensus. He was injured last season and had a down year, but at only 25 he has been a model of consistency to start his career. If I haven’t gotten a TE yet, I would be thrilled to get him here.

My biggest faller is Los Angeles Chargers WR Quentin Johnston, who I’m 20 spots lower on. I’m just not a believer that he will pan out.

Thanks for reading and make sure to check out all the various rankings on the DLF website.

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Justin Taylor

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Owner of JT Walker's Brewery and Project 47 Smokehouse in Central Illinois. Bachelor's Degree in Sports Journalism from the University of Missouri-Columbia and Master's Degree in Sports Broadcasting from Syracuse University. Spent 10 years covering football at every level. Also spent seven years coaching High School football as a Defensive Coordinator. I play in every type of fantasy football format.

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