John Arrington: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained

Welcome back to another installment in our series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2024 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2024 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

SUPERFLEX DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: John Arrington

As the NFL season winds down, dynasty players transition from a win-now mindset to one of player value and ageism. No longer do we want that 32-year-old WR or 28-year-old RB, and often dynasty managers will try to sell off aging and uncertain assets while trying to accumulate more rookie draft picks in the process. Of course, only a handful of months later, managers will try the reverse of that process, to prepare for their season. When I sit down and create my dynasty ranks, I try to keep those things in mind. I want to try to accrue as much value as possible, while still drafting/trading for players that will score points during the year.

I try not to ignore the older players that are still producing at a high level, but I also try to boost the young players that have flashed as well. Focusing on those two things makes my ranks pretty different from consensus, as you’ll see in this article, but I promise there is a method to my madness! I focus on the players that I believe will be difference-makers at each position, and try to accumulate as many of those as possible in drafts and trades. One of the biggest things you will likely notice about the way I rank is I tend to lower the second-tier QBs while raising some of the value QBs in the later rounds. That strategy has worked extremely well for me over the past few seasons, and I see no reason why it would stop working anytime soon.

Let’s dive in!

Rankings 1 - 24

You’ll immediately notice that I have three wide receivers higher than consensus, but they are the clear-cut top three. Lamb, Jefferson, and Chase can be put in any order, and how the offseason shakes out will determine their final order, but I feel more confident about them than the next group of quarterbacks. I tend to be a little lower on Lamar Jackson, mostly because of his inconsistency, week to week.

I have been a Jahmyr Gibbs fan since he was at Georgia Tech, and he proved in the second half of his rookie year to be a true game-changer for the Lions. With Ben Johnson sticking around, I expect Gibb’s role to grow even more in his second season. With so few difference-making players at the position, I am willing to reach a little to ensure I get Gibbs on my team. Some may have age or retirement concerns with Tyreek, but his value doesn’t drop for me by focusing on a two to three-year window in dynasty. I expect him to make another push for two thousand yards in 2024.

Joe Burrow ends up a little lower than consensus, and it’s mostly injury concerns. While they have all been random, somewhat fluky injuries, Burrow has had difficulty consistently staying on the field.

Justin Herbert has proven to be a great quarterback when on the field but has also dealt with some injury issues, missing multiple weeks in back-to-back seasons. On top of that, there is a lot up in the air, with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers will have to work some magic to make their -$44,000,000 salary cap work next year, and we could see some major changes, including a possible Keenan Allen cut/trade. I fully expect the Chargers to draft a high-end WR/TE prospect, but it’s asking a lot of a quarterback to elevate a young team with a first-year head coach. After Herbert, it’s time to focus on the top three rookie picks. You will be guaranteed a top-tier prospect with any of those picks, and honestly picks 1.04 and 1.05 aren’t much different.

Rankings 25 - 48

To start out the second group of players, we see a couple of duos in Brock Purdy/Brandon Aiyuk and Justin Fields/DJ Moore. Aiyuk has solidified his role as the WR1 for the 49ers and Purdy is the QB that Kyle Shanahan has been looking for, for years. Justin Fields isn’t guaranteed to be the QB for the Chicago Bears, but he will be starting for a team and has proven to be a dynamic playmaker. DJ Moore finally showed who he can be with a quality quarterback throwing him the ball, and is still only 26 years old. What’s not to love?

Christian McCaffrey will be 28 years old at the start of the 2024 season, and while he has shown very little sign of decline, it’s difficult for me to push him ahead of some of these exciting high-end receiving options, like Garrett Wilson, Sam LaPorta, and Puka Nacua.

Stefon Diggs and Zay Flowers had opposite seasons, with Diggs starting off hot and then falling off and Flowers starting slow and finishing on a tear, but both seem to be undervalued by rankers. Diggs averaged an elite 70% WOPR(weighted opportunity rate) and Flowers finished the season with four top-twelve WR finishes in his last five games as a rookie.

Anthony Richardson is an extremely raw prospect who barely played this season before succumbing to injury. It seems like people are assuming he will be a great quarterback, but he still has a lot to prove. Jared Goff has finished as the QB10 and QB7 in his last two respective seasons, yet he ends up being so much lower in ranks than other top players. With Ben Johnson sticking around for another year, Goff appears to be a steal in drafts, once again.

Rankings 49 - 72

Trey Mcbride and Dalton Kincaid both had slower starts to their seasons but finished the season on a tear. Mcbride had eight top-12 TE and four top-three finishes, from week eight on.

Rachaad White has been undervalued since entering the NFL but took on a workhorse role in 2023. Despite a top-five finish, dynasty players are still expressing concerns about White possibly being replaced in free agency or the NFL Draft. I’m taking advantage of that fear and drafting/trading for White wherever I can.

This is where I feel comfortable ranking a lot of the late-first and early-second-round picks. There are a lot of players with the potential to be great in this range, but almost every one has some sort of question mark that keeps them around this late-first type of value.

Rankings 73 - 96

This group of QBs is severely underrated because of some uncertainties, but I believe they will all be starting for a team in at least 2024, and likely beyond that. I understand drafting them later right now, but after free agency, I can see them moving up to around this range. Bryce Young was dealt a bad hand in Carolina this past season, but I’m not sure how much better this year will be with them not having their first-round pick. I like the idea of buying Bryce cheap, but a pick in the top 60 is too early for me.

There is a real concern that Travis Kelce will retire after this year’s Super Bowl. He can easily move back up the ranks once we get confirmation that he’s staying, but he definitely lost a step this season, and with all of the youth at the TE position right now, I would much rather invest elsewhere.

I understand the concern for David Njoku, with Deshaun Watson returning next season, but I believe the breakout was real this year.

Rankings 97 - 120

Tyjae Spears showcased his abilities even with Derrick Henry leading the backfield, but it seems that he will be taking over in 2024, after Henry said goodbye to Tennessee fans after the week 18 game. His lack of an ACL is definitely a concern to keep in mind for the future, but I think he has a couple good seasons in him before a potential fall-off.

Evan Engram proved to be a perfect safety valve for Trevor Lawrence this season, and I see no reason to believe his role will change in 2024. His 114 receptions show how high his floor can be, and if the Jaguars offense can take a step forward, the ceiling could be there as well.

Michael Mayer reminds me a lot of Trey Mcbride. Highly touted recruit who doesn’t produce much in year one, and then gets forgotten going into year two. Don’t make the same mistake with Mayer. Draft him!

James Conner and Josh Jacobs are at much different points of their careers, but end up in the same range for me because of a lack of guaranteed money or contracts. Conner finished the season with his first-ever 1,000-yard season, looking better than he has in a couple of years. Jacobs really struggled in the Raiders’ lackluster offense but is a free-agent and could easily move back up my ranks if he lands in a good situation.

Marvin Mims flashed extremely early on in the 2023 season, but seemed to get into Sean Payton’s doghouse shortly thereafter. Mims’ big play ability is apparent, and with Jerry Jeudy likely on the way out, Mims could easily be the WR2 on the team in 2024.

This time of year is always the most difficult to lock down rankings. Free agency is coming up in a few weeks, then the NFL Draft will change quite a few team’s outlooks, and then we can really start painting a picture for these players. For now, this is how I am treating these players, but I expect things to change substantially very soon. Keep checking back with this series, to see how things progress!

Be sure to check out the DLF rankings page on the regular. The ranks, they are a changin’.

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John Arrington

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

DynastyCoachA is an analytically based dynasty player that focuses on player analysis from college all the way through the NFL. He hosts the Monocle Dynasty, Devy Devotional, and Full Tilt Devy podcasts, when he isn't tweaking his rankings or creating a new dynasty tool.

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