Dynasty Perspective Through Fantasy Points Per Game: Quarterbacks
The dynasty world can be an optical illusion, where everything is not what it appears. On the surface you can see the landscape, however looking deeper can uncover a new meaning, a different perspective. In this four-part series, I’ll be discovering the true takeaways from the dynasty world – through the contrast of overall fantasy points scored versus the fantasy points per game (FPPG) in 2023.
FPPG is key to understanding a player’s true performance. Why would we consider yearly totals when we play a weekly game? Focusing purely on the overall output misses key information such games missed through injury, hence can skew outlook based on random events. Focusing on FPPG compares players on a level playing field, game versus game, to truly identify their fantasy effectiveness.
The first article in the series will focus on quarterback, contrasting the overall output against the weekly output from 2023.
Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
- QB12 Overall (257.5 fantasy points)
- QB18 FPPG (16.1 fantasy points)
Long-haired, clean image, and a great story of an elite freshman winning a national title – Lawrence has often been given the benefit of the doubt by dynasty managers. From the Urban Meyer effect, the lack of elite weapons, and overall functionality of the Jaguars, Lawrence has always been looked upon favorably by the dynasty market. 2024 looks like the year when this positive outlook begins to change.
While he has shown major promise in real life through taking the Jaguars back to the playoffs and removing the stink of the Meyer era, Lawrence has not lived up to the hype from a dynasty perspective. There is a lot to like about his QB8 finish in 2022, albeit QB11 in FPPG (excluding cameos from Sam Howell and Davis Webb). A similar trend occurred in 2023, where Lawrence’s overall numbers of QB12 are inflated, with an underlying performance of QB18 in FPPG.
Verdict
Consistently valued around the QB10 range at the market, Lawrence is more name than game at this stage of his career. While his trajectory in dynasty remains promising, you can use this to pivot to another asset like Dak Prescott and gain an extra asset on top. Making this type of move adds points to your lineup and increases your odds of winning a dynasty title in 2024.
Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa are valued in a similar range, but offer better real-life value than dynasty value (Credit: DLF).
Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
- QB11 Overall (262.4 fantasy points)
- QB21 FPPG (15.4 fantasy points)
Tagovailoa is on a similar career arc to Lawrence – both national title winners as freshmen, round one draft picks, and have led their NFL franchises to the playoffs during their career. The similarities don’t end there: both share an almost identical dynasty ADP and both underperform in the FPPG output.
Tagovailoa always seems to be looked upon less favorably, whether it is the injuries he suffered in college and the NFL, his lack of height, or arm strength. He is an excellent real-life QB, with outstanding accuracy and a quick release. When we look purely at fantasy output there is plenty of cause for concern – from the scary concussion injuries in 2022 to the overall fantasy performance.
As mentioned, the career-threatening concussion injuries have resulted in little to zero rush upside, which is absolutely vital for high-performing fantasy play. Add in the fact his biggest weapon Tyreek Hill has delivered an almost record-breaking receiving yards season and still Tagovailoa has only finished as QB21 in FPPG.
Verdict
Overall, Tagovailoa is overvalued, due to a lack of fantasy upside, while carrying the huge injury risk of another big concussion. His zero rushing upside and lack of fantasy impact without elite receiver Tyreek Hill makes Tagovailoa an easy pivot to other assets with more upside like Kyler Murray or Justin Fields.
Bryce Young, QB CAR
- QB23 Overall (151.4 fantasy points)
- QB42 FPPG (9.5 fantasy points)
Young was a monumental disappointment in his rookie season, averaging a miserly 9.5 fantasy points per game, which could be hidden by his QB23 overall finish. The expectations are high for Young, with the Panthers trading their 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, a 2023 second-round pick and wide receiver DJ Moore to acquire him. In the short-term, it has been a catastrophic move for the Panthers, who have since fired head coach Frank Reich and general manager Scott Fitterer.
The pressure is on for dynasty managers as the rookie performance is a cause for concern. While there is promise in a new regime, further struggles in 2024 could depress Young’s dynasty value even more. Reviewing the table below and considering first-round rookie quarterbacks over the last five years, only Dwayne Haskins has generated a lower FPPG than Young, making him a low-probability bet to develop into a cornerstone dynasty asset.
Verdict
The 2024 off-season is pivotal in the dynasty career of Young. His value has dipped after a poor rookie season, however we have seen other rookie quarterbacks struggle in FPPG, only to bounce back in the future (Lawrence and Justin Fields). The opportunity to roll again on an incoming rookie such as Jayden Daniels is appealing and should be automatic, whereas an offer of a late 2024 first-round pick would make Young a hold in dynasty.
The rookie performance of Young in FPPG makes him a longshot to be a success in dynasty (Credit: Sleeper).
Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
- QB8 Overall (272.0 fantasy points)
- QB11 in FPPG (17.4 fantasy points)
Mahomes is an interesting proposition, currently cemented in the top tier of dynasty quarterbacks. While the discrepancy between overall performance and FPPG is minimal, I want to highlight Mahomes on the back of him delivering his worst-ever performance in FPPG ranking in 2023. It speaks volumes of the outstanding consistency and performance of Mahomes, where a QB11 finish in FPPG is considered a mild concern.
Logically, you can attribute the poor performance of Mahomes to the loss of elite wide receiver Tyreek Hill in 2022 and the declining play of all-pro tight end Travis Kelce. Whilst Mahomes is a generational talent who can maximize his weapons, the future outlook has question marks which could reduce his overall ceiling in dynasty and make him a riskier asset than previous years. The flip side is the positive growth of Rashee Rice and the high probability of the Chiefs adding further weapons this off-season.
Verdict
The unbelievable talent remains and we have seen it can be foolish to fade Mahomes (who finished QB1 in 2022 after the exit of Hill). While there are question marks over the future, I don’t feel we should overreact to the poor performance in FPPG. Mahomes should still remain a top-tier dynasty QB, albeit with more caution in a riskier profile and strong consideration to be at the bottom of the tier.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
